Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

All the pent up FUD for Jun3rd and Tesla was a no show with the S/X release today ... coincidence.

I feel like this post did not get enough attention. My feelings about coincidence seem a bit more skeptical than others, but it would be hilarious if yesterday was essentially "scheduled FUD". Makes a lot of sense.

 

[UkNorthampton]

View attachment 669479

Comapring second quarter months (May/Feb), so 1000 units down until 3 countries (plus "Others") are counted. I think Tesla have exceeded the 1000 gap unless French/UK supply diverted to Germany, so I predict higher deliveries in May 2021 than Feb 2021

UK - BEV April BEV - 9152 May BEV - 13120
Model 3 must be below 2400 (otherwise would be in top 10 sellers for May). So not helpful. In April, very low number, so I would expect may to be higher.

France - do they still have the great incentives for BEV and Tesla? If so, I would expect them to be strong

Spain - 218 in May 2021 compared to 164 in April. Source - Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 11 countries, 80+% of BEV market

Other - no idea

 

[thx1139]

View attachment 669479

What is the source of this?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think you nailed it. @TheTalkingMule probably has used up his good faith violations and now has to wait for the cash to settle to open a new position.

Ding! We have a winner. I think Fidelity screwed up to some extent, but I was definitely trading in a manner their system didn't like.

Got an ALL CAPS margin warning this morning then Fidelity forced a buy-to-close on some TSLA LEAPs I sold in December. Currently on hold trying to figure out why buying something has somehow negated a margin issue, but it sounds like all is well. Perhaps there was a cash position requirement somewhere in the mix that I wasn't meeting. Totally fine being forced to buy 2023 TSLA calls at today's open!

They really shouldn't let you trade in any complex fashion within IRAs.

 

[elasalle]

Found this video buried in the comments of a Dave Lee video. These guys seem plugged into China. They are discussing the potential problems Tesla faces in China. First issue is China stealing Tesla's IP, which they concede Elon does not care about. The bigger issue they focus on is the harassment Tesla drivers are facing from the state. The larger worry is China will eventually kick Tesla out. One common response I see is if this happens nobody else will want to do business in China. Who are some go-to sources for the the complicated relationship between Tesla and China to better understand the risks? Video cued up to the Tesla portion.

has anyone reviewed the video by Dave titled "How to get Rich"

 

[elasalle]

I feel like this post did not get enough attention. My feelings about coincidence seem a bit more skeptical than others, but it would be hilarious if yesterday was essentially "scheduled FUD". Makes a lot of sense.

After binge watching HBO Into the Storm and Agents of Chaos I am a bit paranoid at the moment

How things spread on the internet, how BOTS can take over narrative is all there.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Alright....i just need to know where $TSLA is going to finish today so that i can remind my son to think in decades as his RBLX pick has outperformed $TSLA by about 50% since he bought it

 

[The Accountant]

In the screenshot from Rob's video the other day below, he backs into quarterly numbers by trying to determine weekly production rate. His methodology gets to 38K in Shanghai for May, and 211K company-wide for the quarter. That's about what @The Accountant had in his delivery estimate, too, if I remember (210K?)

Rob had assumed a production run rate for Fremont in Q2 equal to Q1 because he had not yet spent time analyzing Fremont.
Rob and I have similar numbers but we differ by location:

Rob
104,220 - Fremont
107.394 - Shanghai
211,614 - Total

Mine
111,000 - Fremont
99,000 - Shanghai
210,000 - Total

I may have a higher number in Fremont than Rob because I take two items into consideration that gets us above the Fremont Q1 run-rate:
1. Fremont stopped production of models 3 & Y on Feb 22-23 due to missing parts (due to Texas supplier issues from State power outage)
2. Fremont got off to a slow start in January likely due to annual maintenance in the first week of January. First ship loaded in Q1 was Jan 12 but in Q2 it was Apr 6. So they were a week ahead in Q2.

 

[Pezpunk]

Alright....i just need to know where $TSLA is going to finish today so that i can remind my son to think in decades as his RBLX pick has outperformed $TSLA by about 50% since he bought it

haha my kids made me buy RBLX at its IPO also. Lone bright spot in my portfolio the last couple months. They are the future, not us. Don't forget it!

 

[Big Time]

Elon’s new Twitter profile pic is great

 

[henchman24]

Rob had assumed a production run rate for Fremont in Q2 equal to Q1 because he had not yet spent time analyzing Fremont.
Rob and I have similar numbers but we differ by location:

Rob
104,220 - Fremont
107.394 - Shanghai
211,614 - Total

Mine
111,000 - Fremont
99,000 - Shanghai
210,000 - Total

I may have a higher number in Fremont than Rob because I take two items into consideration that gets us above the Fremont Q1 run-rate:
1. Fremont stopped production of models 3 & Y on Feb 22-23 due to missing parts (due to Texas supplier issues from State power outage)
2. Fremont got off to a slow start in January likely due to annual maintenance in the first week of January. First ship loaded in Q1 was Jan 12 but in Q2 it was Apr 6. So they were a week ahead in Q2.

So if I cherry pick the numbers I like from each, I get nearly 220k. I like that number best!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Its part of CNBS so take it with a grain of salt....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400741050872786951

 

[The Accountant]

What is the source of this?

page down on this page and you will see a link to the source of each country.

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[The Accountant]

So if I cherry pick the numbers I like from each, I get nearly 220k. I like that number best!

Early in the quarter, I had 108,000 for Shanghai production but as I am human, I experienced some FUD and took my number down to 99,000.
I will keep it at 99,000 until we see production numbers published 2 weeks from now.

 

[Unpilot]

Its part of CNBS so take it with a grain of salt....

View attachment 669486

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400741050872786951

Fork cnbc

 

[Chocochip]

Comapring second quarter months (May/Feb), so 1000 units down until 3 countries (plus "Others") are counted. I think Tesla have exceeded the 1000 gap unless French/UK supply diverted to Germany, so I predict higher deliveries in May 2021 than Feb 2021

UK - BEV April BEV - 9152 May BEV - 13120
Model 3 must be below 2400 (otherwise would be in top 10 sellers for May). So not helpful. In April, very low number, so I would expect may to be higher.

France - do they still have the great incentives for BEV and Tesla? If so, I would expect them to be strong

Spain - 218 in May 2021 compared to 164 in April. Source - Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 11 countries, 80+% of BEV market

Other - no idea

In the UK, "Other imports" for May came in at 2011, so Tesla deliveries (probably all Model 3) which typically account for 95% of that are likely around 1900.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Early in the quarter, I had 108,000 for Shanghai production but as I am human, I experienced some FUD and took my number down to 99,000.
I will keep it at 99,000 until we see production numbers published 2 weeks from now.

So no slowdown in China like what MSM is claiming?? What a surprise....

 

[EinSV]

page down on this page and you will see a link to the source of each country.

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...

teslamotorsclub.com

Hopefully the TMC Europe wiki team will finalize the numbers for UK, France and Spain soon, but spitballing:

1800+ for UK (SMMT has 2011 "Other Imports" and vast majority are usually Tesla). Car Registrations

2119 for France May In France: Plugin Vehicle Sales At 17.3% Share — Up 2.3× Year On Year

247 for Spain per eu-evs.com

=8664 for May in Europe before adding "other" countries (prob ~200-300).

tl;dr April+May should be about 40% higher than first two months of Q1 in Europe. Not too shabby.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I feel like this post did not get enough attention. My feelings about coincidence seem a bit more skeptical than others, but it would be hilarious if yesterday was essentially "scheduled FUD". Makes a lot of sense.

Nor did I feel my comment on Wed (nor @elasalle on Thursday) got enough attention - same hunch. Thanks for noticing!

In hindsight, these premonitions make sense. Like they synchronize their watches for some event in the future. But when the day changes, not everyone can be notified (without the risk of getting caught at manipulating markets). Media was all lined up, ad paid.., What can it hurt so they go ahead anyway bc its safest to just let it play out, do it again next Wed.

WE call manipulation... again!

 

[elasalle]

Its part of CNBS so take it with a grain of salt....

View attachment 669486

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400741050872786951

Hit job over. Oh look we are un-biased Media.