Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

And a Tesla gets hit head on by a wrong way driver in a Buick Enclave on I-80 west of Salt Lake City. Both drivers dead. Fire. Sounds ugly. A passenger in the Tesla is in the hospital.

2 killed when car traveling wrong way hits Tesla on freeway, UHP says

I guess being in a Tesla doesn't protect you from everything. The speed limit is high there, 80 I think.

Even at a lower speed of 65 each vehicle, that's still 130mph collision.

Not many can walk away from a 130mph crash, no matter what they're driving.

 

[MXWing]

Even at a lower speed of 65 each vehicle, that's still 130mph collision.

Not many can walk away from a 130mph crash, no matter what they're driving.

I'm thinking its more likely to be 160 or 170. I wouldn't be counting on FSD for this kind of avoidance.. but is the software designed for these edge cases?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Even at a lower speed of 65 each vehicle, that's still 130mph collision.

Not many can walk away from a 130mph crash, no matter what they're driving.

I take it you didn't watch Mythbusters?

 

[LN1_Casey]

I'm thinking its more likely to be 160 or 170. I wouldn't be counting on FSD for this kind of avoidance.. but is the software designed for these edge cases?

Well, I assume there was some breaking happening, from either or both cars before impact. Not saying there was, but for simplicity.

I take it you didn't watch Mythbusters?

Nope. But I looked it up

If that happened at 100mph to that car, then my statement stands.

Edit: I hazard a guess my previous statement was clear. I was trying to imply that having two drivers dead from a head on freeway collision is *expected.* As in, it'd take something beyond what we have now for someone to walk away from that accident, beyond even Tesla.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Well, I assume there was some breaking happening, from either or both cars before impact. Not saying there was, but for simplicity.



Nope. But I looked it up

If that happened at 100mph to that car, then my statement stands.

Edit: I hazard a guess my previous statement was clear. I was trying to imply that having two drivers dead from a head on freeway collision is *expected.* As in, it'd take something beyond what we have now for someone to walk away from that accident, beyond even Tesla.

I think he’s saying that a head on collision at 80mph is not equivalent to hitting a wall at 160mph. It’s equivalent to hitting a wall at 80 mph (assuming the cars are equal mass, hit square on the front, etc, etc). You can’t just add the speeds up, thats not how physics works.

The 160 mph combined speed is relevant to reaction time though as MXwing pointed out.

 

[ModalYYJ]

Credit suisse just raised TSLA's price target to $800!

Credit Suisse Raises Tesla Price Target to $800, Up from $400 - TeslaNorth.com

 

[15Peter20]

Sell shares when needed.

Spoiler: Details

I put info into a spreadsheet

• number of shares
• price now
• inflation
• expected yearly increase in share price (* will estimate & then goal seek)
• minimum income
• how many shares need to be sold each month for income (not whole numbers, easier)
• rows for every month
• some other stuff
• added graph

Then I put in expected inflation (5-15%, wage or money supply) & use goal seek to find out what I need to know

• expected yearly increase in share price
• when shares run out
• other stuff

Beyond a certain point, the difference between inflation & increase in share price means never run out of shares. In reality in 10 years, I'd reassess & move some money into ARK/ Boring etc if looks right.

My point is that just by selling shares, you get a 'retirement income' - just as long as you have enough to last, give to next generation etc. Really odd stock market movements don't affect as much as doing options, where you risk a lot.

======================
On another tab I have amounts of retirement money at 3% (was 4% but being conservative, longer than 20 years retirement), I then looked up typical UK levels of monthly income vs quality of life. I think £4,000 / month for a couple was luxurious (multiple holidays)

Against each row/amount (eg £1,000,000 / £2,500 per month) I put the type of lifestyle & level of treats.

I then checked against UK Government figures (ONS) & various forums. Seems £40-45,000 / year in UK is when everyone thinks you have enough as they usually don't list higher levels. Low levels go start around £12/15/20,000 per year depending on website

• @ 3% - you need
• £1,500,000 ($2 million) fund for
• £45,000 ($61,000) a year NET (tax free wrappers) or
• £3,750 per month
• approx £54,900 equivalent GROSS salary (if paying taxes, but excluding commute & other costs)

(UK, so free healthcare, but £2,000 a year in property/NI social insurance taxes) - but I'll also get a state pension on top (rules change & only when much older). I'll still get "child benefit" on top! (not much)


Random links I just found, but better ones around:-
How much will you need to retire?

Hey fellow Brit,

talking of moving into ARK, any thoughts on the most tax efficient way to do so? I have yet to find an ISA or pension manager that can/will include US ETFs for reasons that seem a bit weak.

"Investment products classified as a PRIIP need to provide a KID to our third party data provider in order to be added to our platform. This is the case for all US and Canadian incorporated ETFs and is outside of our control. It is unlikely for US and Canadian ETFs to provide KIDs in the near future which means they cannot be added to our platform."

In the absence of ISA or pension means of doing so I don't see a way to avoid a hefty tax bill on profits. As has been pointed out earlier such a bill is a 'nice problem to have' but I've become used to the tax free status of the ISA and, more to the point, have money locked in a pension that is looking for a more lucrative home.

 

[Buckminster]

Hey fellow Brit,

talking of moving into ARK, any thoughts on the most tax efficient way to do so? I have yet to find an ISA or pension manager that can/will include US ETFs for reasons that seem a bit weak.

"Investment products classified as a PRIIP need to provide a KID to our third party data provider in order to be added to our platform. This is the case for all US and Canadian incorporated ETFs and is outside of our control. It is unlikely for US and Canadian ETFs to provide KIDs in the near future which means they cannot be added to our platform."

In the absence of ISA or pension means of doing so I don't see a way to avoid a hefty tax bill on profits. As has been pointed out earlier such a bill is a 'nice problem to have' but I've become used to the tax free status of the ISA and, more to the point, have money locked in a pension that is looking for a more lucrative home.

New thread for the Brits:
UK pre/post retirement strategies

 

[chrsk]

853$ in pre market. Will the green streak stop here?

 

[CyberDutchie]

853$ in pre market. Will the green streak stop here?

Likely. Futures are down, perhaps the uncertainty around impeachment/25th amendment...

 

[cricketman]

Because I absolutely need $700k cash out over the next 18 months for renovation of the house we just bought.

I have two choices, sell shares or sell calls. At least by selling calls there's a chance they won't get exercised, but in order to make it work I need to do it quarterly, or similar frequency, in order to pull-in $100-$150k per time, that implies some risk.

I was in a similar position for the same reason and just decided to sell. If you "need" the money to improve your family's quality of life then sell while you are winning. I would have been gutted if I had to sell at half of today's share price to reform my house. And imo its pretty likely there will be a 30-50% dip at some point

For long holders who do not need the money right now, no problem, just keep holding!

 

[Singuy]

Likely. Futures are down, perhaps the uncertainty around impeachment/25th amendment...

Kind of Tesla specific when it's 9x qqq.

Inverse Nio, kind of expected for the short term.

 

[Singuy]

Not many people survive 80mph crashes if it's head on even if the car looks 100% brand new after the crash. Our bodies are not designed to withstand 80 to 0 deceleration kind of trauma.

 

[petit_bateau]

Hey fellow Brit,

talking of moving into ARK, any thoughts on the most tax efficient way to do so? I have yet to find an ISA or pension manager that can/will include US ETFs for reasons that seem a bit weak.

"Investment products classified as a PRIIP need to provide a KID to our third party data provider in order to be added to our platform. This is the case for all US and Canadian incorporated ETFs and is outside of our control. It is unlikely for US and Canadian ETFs to provide KIDs in the near future which means they cannot be added to our platform."

In the absence of ISA or pension means of doing so I don't see a way to avoid a hefty tax bill on profits. As has been pointed out earlier such a bill is a 'nice problem to have' but I've become used to the tax free status of the ISA and, more to the point, have money locked in a pension that is looking for a more lucrative home.

We have been discussing this on TLF at Broker recommendations for US shares - The Lemon Fool and a related thread at UK banks and brokers after Brexit - Page 4 - The Lemon Fool .

From my enquiries I don't think you will be able to get any of the ARK funds or BPTRX in the UK at all, irrespective of whether inside or outside ISA & SIPP. As the brokers say this is due to (amongst other things) the absence of a suitable KID/KIID and that in turn relates to MIFID II.

Personally I am mid-way through opening an account with Charles Shwab to access BPTRX, and (maybe, but OT for this thread, ARKG) which as you note will have to use tax-exposed trading funds rather than tax-protected ISA & SIPP funds.

(For the benefit of our US & Canadian brethren, several years ago The Motley Fool UK shut down its discussion boards. The user community set up their own substitute which runs as a free/voluntary/donation effort, much like TMC is. There is no connection whatsoever between TLF and the 'old' TMF-UK, or the ongoing TMF-USA. You will find our Tesla/Musk thread at Musk endeavours - The Lemon Fool if it interests any of you, which I think you will find fairly muted in comparison with here).

 

[MABMAB]

I used to listen to an old timer on you tube, think he claimed to have worked on the floor. He said large financial outfits would plan week by week, meeting monday to go over things, perhaps slowly implement that day but more so the rest of the week. I am not worried about 4 am pre market dips!

I recall folks using a phrase like turn around Tuesday also.

 

[NicoV]

That doesn’t make sense - an increase of 350K units this year (75% increase) & then only 250K the year after (only 30% increase)
Idiots

Probably takes into account that 2020 would have been much higher without corona impact.

 

[jw934]

At the last 0.5 second of this 39 second clip of GM Cruise self driving through downtown SF, the Cruise car pulls slightly to the right to allow an impatient (illegal or emergency vehicle) car to pass. If this was done automatically then I am amazed. The aerial view display due to lidar is definitely far superior to vision, as expected. https://twitter.com/kvogt/status/1319712649748205568?s=20

Negatives: geofenced for self-driving training locations, trained on millions of real miles (and not billions)

 

[NooB_cat]

Saw this article this morning which I think sums things up nicely
Why Tesla Stock Keeps Bubbling Higher

Why Tesla Stock Keeps Bubbling Higher
After rising another 7.84% on Friday, Jan. 8, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is rewarding investors with a 1,155% return from 52-week lows. The stock is now another $170 billion away from the $1 trillion market capitalization.

In all the years when bears attacked the company for its lack of positive cash flow, profits, and increasing debt, last week marked another defining moment.

The week before, Tesla posted Q4/2020 deliveries of 180,570. For the year, it produced 509,737 units and delivered 499,550. In hindsight, selling the Model 3/Y at a lower price point lifted revenue and unit sales.

The stock is immune to anything bears through at it. And the more the stock rises, the more novice investors it attracts. With the fear of missing out setting in, more money will chase the stock, sending it to new highs daily. Fundamentally, gas-powered vehicles outnumber Tesla EVs. But premium brands like Mercedes-Benz and Audi do not have a comparable EV.

Without any competition on the luxury end, Tesla’s margins will eventually expand. At the low end, unless China-based EV suppliers enter the U.S. market, Tesla has nothing to worry about.

Tesla may have bubbled EV stocks higher and continues to enjoy daily new highs. Nothing is stopping it from falling by much. If it does, buyers will just buy the dip.

 

[lascavarian]

Did you consider rolling your calls for higher calls, at dates further out? The loss you see in current call is picked up by the person buying the strike further out. Worst case, your shares will get exercised at a higher strike. If SP keeps going up, new strikes will open up

I did not consider rolling since it could amplify the risk IMO. The enormity of the move was outside my model and plan. Rolling would have been just a blind bet IMO. It seemed volume and price were detached. Some news may have been moving the market and I did know what it was.

My knowledge is always imperfect but it appeared to me that I was ignorant of something enormous moving into the thinking of the market so I exited any short term risk until I could figure it out and make adjustments (maybe).

I don’t know what the impact of an announcement of the completion of an LA to NY FSD accomplishment would mean to the stock for instance. I would not want to be selling covered calls in the middle of that. Too many upside surprises lingering out there for my present model IMO.

 

[traxila]

Upper BB starts at 820! How many points did we go up again last week? Sheesh....

Mid BB at 686. Even small corrections will be violent here. What was that about S&P and volatility?