Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

FUD coming in full steam right now for final attempts before ER. GLJ is a known fudster.

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But why...? Like, it was the middle of the pandemic of the century--any sub-figure would easily be accounted for because, you know, PLAGUE.

Why hurt their ER profit line for sheer delivery numbers?

 

[StealthP3D]

I guess the question is what are they trying to pre-empt. If margins are less than their stated goal of c.30% it is likely demand driven, otherwise supply driven.

They are pre-empting the cutting of production. Yes, you can call it "juicing demand", my point is they have room to do that, and they have to do it when they substantially increase production (or else their prices were too low before the production increase). Because demand is highly sensitive to price. What matters is how much it costs you to produce it (and that is where Tesla has the lead).

And yes, it's related to technological lead, both in manufacturing but also in the engineering of the vehicle. Let me ask you this:

If Tesla can get the same functionality out of a 75 kWh battery that it takes another manufacturer 86 kWh to even come close to the same functionality, what does that do to the pricing of the respective cars? And any manufacturing lead is additive to this. There is a reason no other manufacturer is coming out with an EV made in the same volumes as the Model 3 (and soon the Model Y). Because they can't do it without losing boatloads of money.

 

[smorgasbord]

I'm happy you're here because everyone believing the in the company and being an investor is positive.

But I would highly recommend changing your logic and labeling Tesla a automaker. It doesn't matter.........numbers matter. Tesla revenue growth, margins, profits and ebita matter. I don't care that Tesla's market cap is larger than all of traditional auto makers. I don't know how you think Tesla is ever going to be a trillion dollar company with that logic.

Like why is the market cap of other auto maker's even mentioned here? They have no growth........of course they're going to valued incredibly low. There's no growth in their current sector(gas vehicles) and they show no competitiveness in the EV sector. Most of them are honestly quite worthless from a investment point of view.

You said $2,000 on Q3. That's automotive revenue and growth, unless you know something about Tesla Solar or Tesla Energy that no-one else does. Certainly Mr. Market doesn't.

 

[ninpb]

Adam Jonas is such a butthole

It would explain a lot about him if you had said that he DIDN'T have a butthole.

 

[smorgasbord]

So?

So what?

Two can play at the pull response out of context game.

 

[Tslynk67]

FUD coming in full steam right now for final attempts before ER. GLJ is a known fudster.

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Please give links to tweets. Txs.

 

[smorgasbord]

Yeah I think that is where we view things differently. I 100% think most of Amazon's value from 500 billion to a trillion dollar company was from them executing on their Ecommerce business and becoming a monopoly in that sector. I do not think AWS margins would have made that much a difference. Would Amazon only be a trillion instead of 1.45 trillion? Sure. But I do not think AWS changed or altered the fundamental reason you invested in Amazon. AWS was however a big cop-out for analysts who missed out on the big Amazon rally of 5 years and gave them a "valid" reason to give dramatically higher price targets after big runs....Sound familiar?

I don't know why you're dragging Amazon into this, but last quarter AWS accounted for more than 75% of Amazon's TOTAL operating profit.
Amazon's cloud generated over $10 billion in net quarterly sales for the first time ever — up 33% from a year ago

 

[Krugerrand]

You could combine the dental visit with the proctologist visit, and get your butt flossed. (String bikini?) The affect on the share price should cancel out.

I could but I’ll save that for a more dire situation. Instead, I think some toffee should help neutralize it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You said $2,000 on Q3. That's automotive revenue and growth, unless you know something about Tesla Solar or Tesla Energy that no-one else does. Certainly Mr. Market doesn't.

Yes, I think Tesla's Q3 results will result in a stock price above $2,000. Tesla doesn't even need Tesla Energy/Solar growth. I'm not sure how anyone here isn't expecting deliveries of at least 135k vehicles in Q3 which is 50% growth. Revenue for the quarter will likely jump to 9 billion for Q3. I personally think Tesla will deliver around 150k vehicles in Q3 which would be an 10-11 billion quarter. The effects of that ramp will profound on Tesla's earnings. Wall St has not factored this in or is unwilling to accept it......which is why I think Q3 numbers will easily support any sell off from S&P inclusion.

 

[Steve m]

Price cuts are a sign of Tesla needing to juice order flow during those regions and during those periods. Nothing more. Nothing less. They are NOT a sign of Tesla growing their lead. The fact that Tesla can cut costs rapidly such that they can still have good gross margins, is incredibly wonderful, but even more wonderful to cut costs, keep prices the same and have higher gross margins.

I.e. if Tesla has been truly present and near future production constrained during periods when they cut prices, those price cuts would only have achieved two things:

1) Decreased Operating Cash Flows: Meaning Tesla had to do Capital Raises (diluting shareholder value and incurring more debt). Those price cuts in Q2 if maintained throughout 2020 mean that Tesla will have $1B / year less cash flow which could have been well used servicing debt, or in building out Superchargers and Service Centers more rapidly, if not even more rapid future GF expansion.

2) When production constrained, price cuts would increase customer wait times as more orders come in. This increases dissatisfaction.

Tesla carefully pulls and removes demand levers (including prices) as necessary to maintain a healthy, but not too large backlog of orders.

If Tesla starts regularly hitting over 30% gross margins and cut prices so that they are not gouging, that may be a sign of it not being to juice demand. But even in that case, the only result may be that the order book grows too large, and white times grow too long.

Price cuts can also be strategic to make it more costly for other manufacturers to compete

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't know why you're dragging Amazon into this, but last quarter AWS accounted for more than 75% of Amazon's TOTAL operating profit.
Amazon's cloud generated over $10 billion in net quarterly sales for the first time ever — up 33% from a year ago

Man if you're quoting what I said in that part and then saying you don't know why I was talking about Amazon then you clearly aren't reading the chain of messages and how they're flowing. But since you pointed it out and given that information you posted in that link, who here thinks Amazon's current 1.5 trillion market cap is primarily because of AWS?????......Because I sure don't

Since you disagreed with that last post of mine, I think we can safely say we view Tesla as an investment differently and what is happening in the company and it's finances as it scales. I don't think there's really any reason to continue the discussion past this point because we have our different views.

 

[smorgasbord]

Man if you're quoting what I said in that part and then saying you don't know why I was talking about Amazon then you clearly aren't reading the chain of messages and how they're flowing.

Since you disagreed with that last post of mine, I think we can safely say we view Tesla as an investment differently and what is happening in the company and it's finances as it scales. I don't think there's really any reason to continue the discussion past this point because we have our different views.

Yeah, I thought eventually the facts might end the silliness over TSLA at $2,000 on Q3 results alone.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Price cuts can also be strategic to make it more costly for other manufacturers to compete

^^^ This

 

[Christine69420]

No idea of the significance, but on Level 2, there are 7 exchanges with 100 share bids at $1580.52

My vote is for significance

 

[lafrisbee]

You could combine the dental visit with the proctologist visit, and get your butt flossed. (String bikini?) The affect on the share price should cancel out.

While you are at it get both bleached.

 

[Rammstein]

Yeah, I thought eventually the facts might end the silliness over TSLA at $2,000 on Q3 results alone.

Do you think Q3 results will be bad?

What I find silly is there are still bulls on this board that compare Tesla to other automakers. Tesla is a completely different company that will have higher margins with software. Tesla is more of a software company that provides transportation and energy solutions.

 

[EcoBruin]

Please give links to tweets. Txs.

Here's the follow up tweet with some comments. If the first commenter were to be believed, this "fleet" involves only 5 vehicles.

https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1285630985846042625?s=20

 

[Big Time]

Adam Jonas has no butthole

 

[M|S|M MYP]

FYI, SP fine before I entered dentist office, got teeth cleaned the old fashion way because that’s how they do it now, walk out of office a big drop in SP.

Today’s informative message: floss more and skip your dentist cleaning appointments until further notice.

And if all of that still doesn't work...perform self exam colonoscopy!

 

[smorgasbord]

Do you think Q3 results will be bad?

What I find silly is their are still bulls on this board that compare Tesla to other automakers. Tesla is a completely different company that will have higher margins with software. Tesla is more of a software company that provides transportation and energy solutions.

First you ask about Q3, then you talk about other than automobiles. Are you implying that Q3 will show huge growth in something other than automobiles AND that Mr. Market will value that growth highly today?