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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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50 Trillion dollars worth of FF assets are about to become stranded... something like 7 out of the largest 10 companies in the world are oil companies, they face a bleak future, we are about to see an era of winners and losers as rapid change resets the landscape.

IMO staying out of the loser column, is just as important as being in the winner column..

This is a permanent an long lasting redistribution of wealth, COVID-19 is a short term change accelerator.. It is important not to let the short term cloud your vision of the long term.. change is inevitable and will happen faster than many expect.


I don't understand half of what you just wrote, but alright! Sounds good!
 
OT

Here's a Beyond Burger w/ Tikka Masala Veggies, Mom's Cilantro Chutney, and Sriracha that I've been iterating on.

84625393_10107895875798461_1409397890710696917_n.jpg
 
Meanwhile, the global cooling brought on by industries shutting down has resulted in one of the coldest summer in Vancouver with rain all the time. What used to be months of smog filled burning days is now sunless rain.

Could be a fluke, but the coincidence is too convenient.
It's also not a coincidence that during the Rona Lockdown, suddenly visibility in major cities was amazing. You could see for miles in every direction on the clearest days anyone had witnessed in their lifetimes. People were saying they had not seen the skies that clear in LA for 30 years.

Maybe if I dunno we stopped spewing hydrocarbons into the atmosphere from internal combustion engines, we could have cities which were nice to live and breathe in....
 
Meanwhile, the global cooling brought on by industries shutting down has resulted in one of the coldest summer in Vancouver with rain all the time. What used to be months of smog filled burning days is now sunless rain.

Could be a fluke, but the coincidence is too convenient.

Please done confuse local weather with global climate. Could you please cite your source for this “global cooling”. I could just as easily point to the fact that in Montreal we are already on our 3rd heat wave this summer with temperatures in the mid 30s and close to 40 with humidex and we’ve had raging wildfires in other parts of Quebec, but that’s just anecdotal....
 
Please done confuse local weather with global climate. Could you please cite your source for this “global cooling”. I could just as easily point to the fact that in Montreal we are already on our 3rd heat wave this summer with temperatures in the mid 30s and close to 40 with humidex and we’ve had raging wildfires in other parts of Quebec, but that’s just anecdotal....

Well, you are not flooding are you?
 
So that's why I specified $8K in current prices (yeah, not the clearest explaination).

Over the past 5 yrs, TSLA has outperformed MSFT by 2.62x so making the assumption of continued growth by both equities at those historic rates, the overtake would occur in July 2027 (7 yrs):

MSFT:
$1,560B*2.6185^(7/5) = $6.00T in July 2027

TSLA:
$230B*10.4951^(7/5) = $6.18T in July 2027​

While certainly possible, that's not what I was driving at. My OP / prediction was based on simple linear growth of TSLA @ $1,700 / yr and compounding burying the meager growth MSFT will achieve over that time. Very rough estimate. :p

While that is an interesting comparison, it looks like a serious error has crept into your calculation. My data shows that MSFT has grown faster than TSLA over the last 5 years.

upload_2020-7-3_18-16-59.png


TSLA has grown 331.63%
MSFT has grown 364.55% over the same period.
This is before considering the quarterly dividends that MSFT has paid every quarter of the last 20 quarters!

The returns of MSFT have solidly trounced those of TSLA over the last 5 years. Fortunately I sold the last of my MSFT in 2019 to buy more TSLA!
 
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I went for 1500s - 12 and 18 months out. Seems fairly safe and nicely leveraged. Higher strikes and further out seem expensive to me.

Sometimes things that seem expensive are actually cheaper! Remember, you are buying time with strikes further out and time is the canvas on which all market gains are painted on.
 
Is the market for pickup trucks as robust in China? Anecdotally at least, I would think not. Why wouldn't production start in the country that buys the most trucks?
Testing a new line would probably be quickest in China. While I do not pretend to 'like' their government, they get things done..fast.

Is the China Cybertruck announcement a stock price mover on Monday?
. Doubtful

Why do we think CT will be built in China? Unless China is a big market for large pickup trucks (which I am not aware of), it does not make sense to build there and then import back to the USA.
Agreed they will not export to US. There will be enough demand there and in Asia to make it financially feasible and they do get manufacturing projects done quickly in China (vs US and Germany...opinion)
 
50 Trillion dollars worth of FF assets are about to become stranded... something like 7 out of the largest 10 companies in the world are oil companies, they face a bleak future, we are about to see an era of winners and losers as rapid change resets the landscape.

IMO staying out of the loser column, is just as important as being in the winner column..

This is a permanent an long lasting redistribution of wealth, COVID-19 is a short term change accelerator.. It is important not to let the short term cloud your vision of the long term.. change is inevitable and will happen faster than many expect.


Furniture and Fixture assets?
 
A lot of chat about when to sell. As dollar cost averaging works well when purchasing shares, it should also work well when selling. Upon retirement from one to three years from now, my plan is to sell 1/40th of my shares every year on January 1st. Dollar cost averaging is my long term exit plan. I'm posting this on my fridge. I'd be an absolute fool not to stick with this plan, and @StealthP3D, no need to remind me what blunder I did last May!

I believe that when selling on a regular basis, one should use the opposite strategy to dollar cost averaging. One should sell a fixed number of shares per period (month, week, etc) rather than a fixed dollar amount (like one does in buying). That way you get more money when the price is high and less money when the price is low. At the end of the day you will have more money and more shares than you would if you sold the same dollar amount every time. This works best (as does dollar cost averaging when buying) when the share price fluctuates a lot, like TSLA. Please correct if this is wrong.
 
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Roth IRA for Estate Planning - Good but not Great anymore

A little story. One month ago we were talking by Facetime to our two grandchildren, ages 8 and 5. I asked them to do a math problem. If you bought something for $119 and sold it for $900, how much money would you make. After some work, they both got the correct answers. Today, a month later, I would have to modify the question, purchase price the same, but the sales price would be $1208.

What I didn't tell them is that this money is in a Roth IRA and they are the beneficiaries. When we set the Roth (my wife also has one) we decided that the bigger one (my wife's) would be invested in plain vanilla Vanguard Index Funds, while I would speculate with mine. Since hers was quite a bit bigger (close to three times) we felt comfortable with that. We had both maximized our IRA, 401(k), 403(b), 457 contributions over our long careers, so we both had significant amounts in those accounts. We also had the good fortune of both having substantial defined benefit pensions, so the tax deferred accounts were available for our grandchildren (one born and one planned at the time). We also had some investments outside the tax deferred accounts. So we converted all of our tax deferred accounts to IRAs and then to Roths, paying the taxes from our other investments.

At the time, the Roths could grow tax free for our entire lifetimes, with no Minimum Required Distribution (RMD). Furthermore, with our grandchildren as beneficiaries, the amount inherited could continue to grow through their lifetimes tax free, with only relatively small minimum required distributions. I sunk half of my Roth balance into Tesla shares in November 2013 (of course kicking myself for not buying in March, after we got our Model S) and then the other half in 2016 ending up with not quite 2500 shares - cost price $119 and $180.

In 2017, with the tax law changes, one negative change was to eliminate the second lifetime tax free growth, so that now it is ten years after the death of the second spouse with no RMD (assuming you make your spouse the first beneficiary of your Roth). Given our current good health, we hope that at least one of us will live another 15 years, and then the Roth goes to our grandchildren where it can grow tax free without any withdrawals for another 10 years. Yesterday, 1500 of our 2457 shares hit the ten bagger level and my Roth is just shy of $3M. In perspective, my wife's Vanguard IRA which started a $1M, not quite three times my Roth, is now at $1.5M after the stock market fall this Spring.

Hopefully, our Roths will have another 25 years to grow tax free.