Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Nafnlaus on Twitter

Nafnlaus (@KarenRei ) take on "tabless" cells.

 

[phantasms]

Battery day can have a non-battery "one-more-thing." Like semi did. But I agree that cybertruck factory location probably isn't a good candidate.

My gut is we'll see the upgraded/redesigned S if there is in fact a "one more thing". The S and X are rolling around with old tech. People will want to know "well....why does this new super battery tech matter to me". IMHO the S is currently a lesser car than the 3. I presume that will soon change. I hope we will at a minimum get info like "All Model S and X sold in the past two weeks can charge at 350kw, go 500 miles on a charge, and are vehicle to grid capable." Just dreaming...I know nothing.

If Elon comes out wearing a turtle neck and it's during market hours I'll finally go into margin. lol [neither of these things will ever happen]

 

[MartinAustin]

With Fremont re-opening a Battery Day date announcement should be imminent. Hopefully this weekend.

My guess = Wednesday, May 20th. Memorial Day Weekend is too close if they do it after that.

 

[obie_fl]

Am I the only one who thinks Elon and Karen were dropped on Earth by the same spacecraft?

 

[Prunesquallor]

If Elon comes out wearing a turtle neck and it's during market hours I'll finally go into margin. lol [neither of these things will ever happen]

Not necessarily a good look.

 

[capster]

That's like a circular argument. An analyst's job is to attempt to assign a value. Then the customers of the brokerage firm can see whether a stock is under, over or fairly valued. But using the market prices to determine a discount rate ensures the analysis is flawed. In other words, the analyst's estimation of value cannot use market prices as one of the inputs without the product becoming useless.

Huh? Isn’t an analyst’s job to talk their employer’s book and, if they’re auto analysts, even to the point of looking comical?

Wait, now that I think about it, this gets to some deep questions like: When does a (Financial) news hole cease to be a void?

 

[capster]

I would not like to see Elon give up a single share.

Blue collar Tesla employees tend to sell their stock option shares as soon as they can.

White collar Tesla employees tend to sell within 5 years.

I want Tesla insiders to have a large control of Tesla.

Not hedge funds and mutual funds.

Elon only sells to pay taxes.

The only time Elon will sell beyond that is to pay for the colonization of Mars.

That is far less likely to happen if Elon gives shares away.

Hmm, a single share? Yes, I’d be okay with him giving away a single share; it’s important to practice non-attachment.

Beyond that I agree he should just hold or accumulate.

 

[Reductionist]

My gut is we'll see the upgraded/redesigned S if there is in fact a "one more thing". The S and X are rolling around with old tech. People will want to know "well....why does this new super battery tech matter to me". IMHO the S is currently a lesser car than the 3. I presume that will soon change. I hope we will at a minimum get info like "All Model S and X sold in the past two weeks can charge at 350kw, go 500 miles on a charge, and are vehicle to grid capable." Just dreaming...I know nothing.

If Elon comes out wearing a turtle neck and it's during market hours I'll finally go into margin. lol [neither of these things will ever happen]

Considering their recent emphasis on "show, don't tell", this seems like a decently likely scenario to me. Due to the Fremont shutdown they should have next to no inventory of the old S/X left, and could restart production with the updated model.
This should be very good for the stock (ie. this cell is in production now, not some pipe dream), and would have all the benefits of a proper halo product. OTOH they would need to be very clear when the 3/Y are going to get the new cells, and wipe out rumors of "X% more range for 3/Y in 2 months" preemptively, in order to avoid osborning them to hell.

EDIT: I personally think the most likely scenario for roll out of the new cells is looking kind of like this:

• Have the new cells ready in the S/X at battery day. These cars really can't handle an impending massive upgrade demand-wise imo.
• As production capacity is scaled, gradually roll the new cells into the different 3/Y tiers, while keeping pack capacity constant, ie. reduce cell count at every range option. This would allow for a slow phase-out of the old cells without killing demand in the interim. In my opinion the new cells will not benefit the consumer in the 3/Y at first (margins on these cars are going to be obscene though).
• As production is scaled up further, fill the 3/Y packs back up, and realize the range benefit of the new cells on that platform.

This would allow Tesla to phase-in their new cells gradually over however long it takes them to ramp up production (I would guess several quarters), while managing demand without huge price cuts.

 

[wipster]

Nope, there is a shot of the empty drivers seat and the steering wheel turning.

Watched the beginning again this morning and you are correct! Finch is in the backseat and there is no physical being in the driver's seat, just the Machine using Root's voice to speak with Finch. I expect that was probably discussed at length in this thread at the time (or elsewhere in the TMC forum) as that was 2016. Awesome of Abrams to use a model S for that purpose and a great demo of how Tesla is always ahead of it's time!

 

[wipster]

Hmm, a single share? Yes, I’d be okay with him giving away a single share; it’s important to practice non-attachment.

Beyond that I agree he should just hold or accumulate.

Surely he has a share to spare...

 

[hobbes]

Seems hard to find someone leading Tesla Europe who gets along with Elon ..

Tesla's head of Europe exits, reportedly after 'disputes' with Elon Musk - Electrek

 

[MartinAustin]

My gut is we'll see the upgraded/redesigned S if there is in fact a "one more thing". The S and X are rolling around with old tech. People will want to know "well....why does this new super battery tech matter to me". IMHO the S is currently a lesser car than the 3. I presume that will soon change. I hope we will at a minimum get info like "All Model S and X sold in the past two weeks can charge at 350kw, go 500 miles on a charge, and are vehicle to grid capable." Just dreaming...I know nothing.

There is a good chance of this... it would be a non-Plaid powertrain, but the newer batteries. Faster charging, and a slight bump in range to over 400 miles EPA, and as we all know there is about to be another EPA test. In fact Elon changed his exact spec of the new miles from "400" to "400+" in two separate statements. I think he is dying to tell the world about the new batteries. Don't forget that Battery Day is delayed by a month over its original planned date. It's fair to assume they have all their improvements in the can, no pun intended.

Tesla doesn't need to change the range of the car to 500 miles in one step. Remember that if they have fantastic new batteries, they can install less - say, an 80% full floorpan - and make the car profitable at $79,900 right from the get-go. Thus we would get faster acceleration due to less weight/better power draw, more range, and faster charging/more flexible charging (charging to 100% whenever you want instead of 90%). Later in the year (perhaps, with Plaid) they improve the top of the line with a floorpan 100% full of batteries - even better power draw, faster charging, and faster acceleration.

Great day for TSLA it's obviously cracked the $800 barrier.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems hard to find someone leading Tesla Europe who gets along with Elon ..

Tesla's head of Europe exits, reportedly after 'disputes' with Elon Musk - Electrek

Lol, redFay's 'Electrik' clickbait headlines are the digital toilet paper of the covid era.

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

h ard t o ty py in th e show er

 

[Artful Dodger]

OTOH they would need to be very clear when the 3/Y are going to get the new cells

Unlikely 3/Y get the new cells anytime soon, IMO. There's a 35 GWh/yr supply chain going in Sparks/GF1 to supply 3/Y and zero competition for its CURRENT range and perfomance.

Unlikely to turn off the $$ making machine now that its profitable and productive. Unlikely to need to until some 3rd party builds a better small EV/Crossover.

They still haven't matched the range and performance of 2012 Model S, but the competition is now cancelling their still-born EV programs. Jus' sayin'...

But Cybertruck from the new factory? It'll be time to busta MOVE!

Cheers!

 

[ZachieD]

Do you predict that TSLA will get back down to $500 again in the next few months or is it going to keep going up like amazon?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Low volume....up 5%. So bizarre. Imagine if anyone was actually buying today!

Is it Battery Day yet?

 

[Rammstein]

Unlikely 3/Y get the new cells anytime soon, IMO. There's a 35 GWh/yr supply chain going in Sparks/GF1 to supply 3/Y and zero competition for its CURRENT range and perfomance.

Unlikely to turn off the $$ making machine now that its profitable and productive. Unlikely to need to until some 3rd party builds a better small EV/Crossover.

They still haven't matched the range and performance of 2012 Model S, but the competition is now cancelling their still-born EV programs. Jus' sayin'...

But Cybertruck from the new factory? It'll be time to busta MOVE!

Cheers!

They could slowly put the current battery production towards Tesla energy storage. Storage doesn’t have to be more dense because it’s not moving.

 

[Reductionist]

Unlikely 3/Y get the new cells anytime soon, IMO. There's a 35 GWh/yr supply chain going in Sparks/GF1 to supply 3/Y and zero competition for its CURRENT range and perfomance.

Unlikely to turn off the $$ making machine now that its profitable and productive. Unlikely to need to until some 3rd party builds a better small EV/Crossover.
Cheers!

I kind of disagree: In the limit, if Tesla were able to produce the new cells for something ridiculous, like 1$ per kWh [EDIT: This is in no way a price estimate, just a absurdly low number to illustrate my point], it would be financially insane to not switch to the new cells as fast as possible, if only to increase margins drastically. Now, if their cost per kWh on the new cells only goes down like 10%, then the write off of retiring their existing cell lines are of course much more significant, in which case I agree with you.
But considering Elons comments about how the new battery tech "blows his mind", I'm expecting a fairly drastic reduction in battery cost, which would imo come closer to the first scenario than to the second. (in terms of the consequences, not the absolute cost per kWh)
But I agree that they are likely to keep the existing cell lines running, and only add capacity with their new cells. I'm sure that they are going to find use for them (I hear Tesla Energy could use a cell or two?).

(As an aside, does anybody know how the accounting for the Panasonic cell lines works? Do all costs of cell production end up on Panasonics balance sheet, or are there some things Tesla is paying directly? If Tesla were to retire the existing as quickly as possible, how would the associated costs be handled between Tesla and Panasonic?)

 

[LN1_Casey]

h ard t o ty py in th e show er

I did my part.