Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tslagreen]

Exactly. Not sure yet if he's having a breakdown, is under the influence, simply making a point, trying to force someone's hand, or what.

It would be nice if he'd just articulate his thoughts in a blog post or an interview. It would help us understand where exactly his head is at rather than these outbursts which can be taken in so many different ways.

That is not the way Elon operates. He is a brilliant, unbelievably hard-working visionary and yet still sometimes emotionally immature (like many of us). This is what you get with him sometimes among all the other amazing things. Now if Tim Cook was behaving this way, then there would be cause for alarm, lol.

 

[feigen66]

I heard climate change deniers says the exactly same things too. I remember them cheer when some of the predictions turns out wrong. I remember them claiming the science is not settled. I remember them saying nobody knows whether EV reduce emissions.

I agree with this new virus the science is truly not settled yet. And I agree with argument of re-open with caution and protection.

But what he did is much more than that. He has been proven wrong about his prediction that we will see very few death by end of April. Now he began to attack the death numbers due to his confirmation bias, as if the body trucks and massive grave and the overwhelmed cremation workers in Wuhan are all fake.

The death numbers are hard to make right, there are under and over reporting at the same time but counting covid-19 related cases toward covid-19 is generally accepted way of counting. That's how flu deaths are counted. that should be the way to count covid-19 cases if we are to compare against flu

Statistics on climate change is much easier to model than the cause of human death.
The climate change can be modeled with well understood thermal dynamics but the cause human death can be tricky.
We have much better way to model climate than disease and usually they are within 10% of standard deviation instead of 10x off from the COVID-19 models here.

Another example is the CFR of SARS, which kept revising even after the pandemic was over:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome - Wikipedia

The CFR of COVID-19 is much more tricky because a lot of death causing by unknown pre-existing conditions were not well understood.
Usually it took weeks of study after autopsy but now we have a lot of information coming out without controlled study or peered review.

 

[Mike Smith]

Lots of emotions here just because Elon tweets something some don't understand?

Or is it that the SP is $75 down?

Thats all irrelevant and means nothing. Monday the SP may go up $75 again, so what ?!

Sorry but I don't get it because this we have since a long time and over time the company did better and better and the SP went up.

Never been more convinced about my investment and with more cash available today it would be a buy day for me.

I agree, but I'm in all stock. A lot of people here are in options, especially June calls for Battery Day. They didn't deserve this.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We may have underestimated the level of pressure this lockdown is exerting on him.

Remember, the experiment here is taking an extreme workaholic and banning him from working for over a month, with no clear deadline.

Yeah, because he was in Boca Chica building space rockets on Sunday night? Elon's got a hobby. This Fremont shutdown has got to end. That's what to day is about.

The Press has tried to 'play the man, not the ball' for years. It's astonishing to me that investors still buy into their deliberate campaign to defame Elon. And not today. YEARS.

 

[woodisgood]

I'm expecting heavy selling on Monday. Some funds are going to decide over the weekend that this stock isn't suitable for them. Could be a good buying opportunity.

I missed the amazing opportunity at 350-400 a few weeks ago because I wasn’t ready. Hope I can catch a decent bottom this time if this doesn’t blow over.

 

[feigen66]

I agree, but I'm in all stock. A lot of people here are in options, especially June calls for Battery Day. They didn't deserve this.

Any derivate financial products are riskier in nature. I am sorry to people who have lost a lot of money but whoever goes to options is also trying to game it big with speculation. So it's fair game.

 

[mongo]

I agree, but I'm in all stock. A lot of people here are in options, especially June calls for Battery Day. They didn't deserve this.

Options are bets. So is stock. Stock supports the company though. Who really is deserving?

"Hang in there. If you are truly long-term, it will be fine." Elon Musk on Twitter
"If you think Tesla is overvalued compared to probable value of future cash flows, sell. Otherwise, buy." Elon Musk on Twitter

"If you don't like volatility you shouldn't own our stock. You buy stock for the long term." Elon Musk Tesla conference call." Ross Gerber on Twitter

 

[capster]

Exactly. Not sure yet if he's having a breakdown, is under the influence, simply making a point, trying to force someone's hand, or what.

It would be nice if he'd just articulate his thoughts in a blog post or an interview. It would help us understand where exactly his head is at rather than these outbursts which can be taken in so many different ways.

Twitter jujitsu ignore you should. The ball eyes on might you keep.

Or, just go do some gardening.

Either way, content you will be, if long.

 

[dgodfrey]

The value of this forum has been on the decline but today it's worthless. I'm taking a break. It's clear there is no room for any opinion aside from "everything is perfect put all your cash in TSLA and trust Elon 100%". Reminds me of the opposite of TSLAQ.


You don't know my financial situation. Maybe I need to sell next week? There are thousands of other stocks out there, maybe I want to rebalance? This nonsense that paper losses triggered by an idiotic tweet are meaningless is ridiculous. And despite some notions, options trading is still investing.

I fear the answer may be no.


If you do then feel free to enlighten us. I see an erratic CEO dipping back into how he was before the past year of stability and it concerns me. ​

Dude, There's quite a few here who've read about all the teeth gnashing and pearl clutching and scratch our heads so we too feel your pain. And, you have every right to feel disappointed that your paper losses are a few points more because of Musk's "reckless" disregard for us shareholders. If you are thrust into the untimely position that your losses aren't just on paper today, it sucks. I suppose it's even more painful if you happened to accumulate the majority of your shares at >$700. But, for the vast majority of investors on this board IMO, the few percentage points that his tweets may have eroded our net worth is salt in the salad compared to how much we've gained over the past weeks, months, years so I'm so much happier that I invested in Tesla vs. GM, F, NIO. And I'm pretty confident I will say the same thing next week, next month and next year.
You can't just count the losses without giving credit to the wins. If you find that TSLA is one of your worst performing stocks, then you're doing it wrong.

 

[woodisgood]

That is not the way Elon operates. He is a brilliant, unbelievably hard-working visionary and yet still sometimes emotionally immature (like many of us). This is what you get with him sometimes among all the other amazing things. Now if Tim Cook was behaving this way, then there would be cause for alarm, lol.

I totally get that. The problem (for me) is the remote possibility that his behavior and stress is a signal of deeper issues at the company, or regarding his future there. I think those are fairly unlikely but may result in some near-term turbulence unless he explains himself. How an investor chooses to deal with that turbulence is dependent on their own financial situation, risk tolerance, etc.

I’m behind Elon even if I disagree with his approach [on voicing displeasure with pandemic-related issues], but I do need some clarification.

 

[Mike Smith]

I missed the amazing opportunity at 350-400 a few weeks ago because I wasn’t ready. Hope I can catch a decent bottom this time if this doesn’t blow over.

Maybe Elon is trying to give people like you a chance to buy pre Battery Day, while driving out the unworthy non true believers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's the thing, I've been through most of it almost since the beginning and I've never seen anything on the same level from him. I've disagreed with him at times before but this is next level stuff.

Reminds me of an old afferism:

"Desperate times call for desperate measures"​

Familar? That was Hippocrates, 2500 yrs ago. You know, the 'oath' guy? Swear to do no harm guy? Yeah, that kind of next level stuff.

Elon is serious AF, and Will.Not.Stop. It's win or die. I'm betting on win.

 

[Jack6591]

Yes, I think for battery day, we’re going to do a comprehensive review of cell chemistry, module and pack, architecture, and manufacturing plan that has a clear road map to a terawatt-hour per year.

Elon Musk

To maintain perspective, a terawatt is one thousand billion watts. That’s a big number.

 

[woodisgood]

Maybe Elon is trying to give people like you a chance to buy pre Battery Day, while driving out the unworthy non true believers.

I would love to believe that, but it would be wishful thinking on my part. I'm not sensing a calculated move here even if that ends up being the result; his emotions are leading.

EDIT: It is exactly the same emotion and passion that you can feel when he's talking about climate change in the Joe Rogan interview, for example, the kind that makes his voice quiver and his face turn red.

 

[Nightshifter]

Sorry folks, couldn't resist: Face Off, No more drugs for this man

 

[Unpilot]

Twitter jujitsu ignore you should. The ball eyes on might you keep.

Or, just go do some gardening.

Either way, content you will be, if long.

Gave ya a like...but that is danger close to a poem.

 

[elasalle]

So here is the caveat (after some thought)

Without Fremont Open and producing Cars, Tesla does not deserve the current SP. I think that is the essence of EM tweet.

In Feb. -- Tesla did a secondary offering (2.65 million shares of common stock for a price tag of $767).

 

[Artful Dodger]

So my phone just pinged - a software update is ready for my Tesla.

This is why I bought this car. And why I started buying TSLA.

In a few minutes I will have a better car than I had yesterday.

Meh. The radio in my Toyota Echo just quit. I now have a better car than I had yesterday.

CH33RS!

 

[Pezpunk]

Lots of emotions here just because Elon tweets something some don't understand?

i understand his tweets perfectly.

Or is it that the SP is $75 down?

i don't care at ALL about wild swings in this stock, as i've stated numerous times on this thread. You misunderstand everything i am if you think i'm upset because the stock went down. i've lived through plenty worse, in terms of the stock price. THAT's not what's bothering me.

I care about the CEO of the company i'm investing in drowning in an echo chamber of conspiracy-addled anti-science sovereign-citizen fringe crackpot dimwits, throwing twitter tantrums when he doesn't get his way, and lashing out in ways that strengthen his enemies and divide his allies.

it doesn't instill confidence.

Thats all irrelevant and means nothing. Monday the SP may go up $75 again, so what ?!

i doubt it. but again, i don't care about short term movements, at all.

i sold about a half million dollars worth today (not a majority of my holdings, but way more than i've ever sold before) not because of any short-term market movement i think is coming, but because i have lost a comparably major chunk of confidence in Tesla's leadership.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Funniest thing I've seen today: my dad, a 7 year investor in Tesla, exasperatedly saying "I think.... Elon really sucks"