How do you live like this?
If you picked up a person from the year of 2000, they'll look at us and say "this is not normal." Society already changes at a neck breaking speed under peaceful environment. Do not underestimate the power of human wills and innovation in desperate times. We can survive and thrive far longer than you can keep wishing for the sky to fall.
If you think Elon Musk is worrying, that Tesla is worrying, this is not the forum for you. How do you invest in a company without sharing their attitude?
What do your short and put position look like? Put your money where your mouth is.
I am living quite happily thank you very much, despite it all.
I do not hold any short or put positions right now. As I disclosed before, I already made my money for the year from index puts, at a time when most here were cheering Elon for his tweets and company emails that Coronavirus was nothing to worry about.
It’s quite hard to call the timing of a further market down leg right now, the volatility means premiums are expensive and the current market bias to hope rather than grinding reality means this bear market rally may have further to run (though I cashed out of it on Thursday, we’ll see how wise that was in a week).
It is however possible to look at a very long time scale and still believe that Tesla is well placed to do very well out of the next decade or two. Which is why in my retirement account I haven’t touched my Tesla shares.
But this is supposed to be an investing forum, are we only supposed to write something when we think markets will go up?
By the way I have little doubt that some very smart people will crack the vaccine and it’ll be rolled out some time next year. But that does not make any less profound the economic consequences from both the event and the global policy response.
So how about we talk constructively. Why are you so bullish about the economy in the next year or two? Hopefully you’ll change my mind.
I am most concerned about the fragile cash position of SMEs, the job losses globally which are without parallel in recorded human history (and are happening in places without a welfare state), the continued barrier to international travel which affects economies in a non-uniform way, the eventual inflation risk from QE max, the long term moral hazard from bailing out junk bond holders, the geopolitical consequences in China/Russia/Middle East/Eurozone, the stability of the global financial system given NPLs are likely to move beyond even worst case stress tests, the awful potential for a humanitarian and immigration crisis in the developing world etc...
In all of that mess, there’s fortunes to be made if you can figure out what the world looks like the day after tomorrow (tomorrow being the period in between wave 1 lockdowns ending and a vaccine being rolled out).
We’re hear to share ideas not to cheerlead aren’t we? Specifically for Tesla, I’m still very happy with its prospects for the day after tomorrow, so long as it can make it through to then. I’m fairly happy they will, not because I expect them to be FCF positive in the next 12 months but because I don’t think the US govt will allow any US auto to fail. Personally if I could find someone to underwrite, I’d still be raising more equity at these prices, so Tesla could be more aggressive with M&A through the crisis, without worrying about leaving its own cupboard bare.
