Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

First segment has some details about Model 3 Chinese production

Oh wow there are a lot of information in here we can extrapolate from. This is not a TLDR of the video, just what I am guessing using the information from the video.

1. Panasonic goes down so Tesla made LG Chem to take its place.
2. We can assume that 25% of the work force still in Gigafactory Nevada are making pack casing and equipment so Giga shanghai can use those to assemble them in China. I am guessing motor production is still going on?
3. Since motors/pack assembly hardware are limited, Tesla decide to push out higher margin and higher cell count cars while keeping just one rear motor.

 

[adiggs]

This just in - Tesla's doing ok in the world's largest car market:
Tesla Sets Sales Record In China Despite Coronavirus Crisis | OilPrice.com

They don't include Tesla's sales growth. Only that it's Tesla's best month ever, in a month where overall car sales are down 41%.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Actually, I had a dream about TSLA last night. I was watching the ticker with a friend on an options expiration Friday, and suddenly the stock hit $1,100, then next second $1,200, and then it continued to swiftly run up until it hit $4,000 something before dropping back down. We were both super excited about what we had just witnessed, but when we looked back at the ticker it suddenly hit $8,500!! It wasn't until this point that I had the thought that maybe I should jump behind my PC and sell a few shares in the hopes of buying them back cheaper later

... weak long.

 

[MC3OZ]

As far as I know, Karpathy has never given a timeframe?

You are right, I'm not aware of him publicly giving a time frame..

 

[MC3OZ]

Well someone was selling in March, so one assumes there's lots of money on the sidelines

I've given this some thought, and come up with some guesses as to groups of sellers, their strategies and motivations, this relates specially to Tesla, and it is a form of "rough speculation", it doesn't necessarily tell us anything really useful..

One key consideration is "loss-adverse" behaviour and "behavioural contagion' as described in this article:-
https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...to-do-with-you-know-what-20200408-p54i6g.html

• Short Sellers - strategy - cover at a lower price.
• Short term traders - individual strategies - include "loss-adverse" and "timing the market", but also others.
• Retail - "loss-adverse" - strategy - waiting out lows.
• Retail - "timing the market" - strategy - buy back at a lower price.
• Funds - "loss-minimisation" - customers are "loss-adverse" - strategy - waiting out lows.
• Funds - "timing the market" - strategy - buy back at a lower price.

In this case the difference between "timing the market" and "loss-adverse" is the "loss-adverse" group want to be 100% sure the market has bottomed before buying back in, "timing the market" are looking to maximise gains, rather than minimise losses.

For funds with "loss-minimisation" strategies, this depends on when they report to customers, and what funds need to pay out short term, keeping more cash ensure they can meet all payments including fund withdrawals. It is important to note in this case funds are not trying to maximise returns, just to provide the appearance of minimising losses.

So IMO anyone "loss-adverse" is still on the sidelines, that doesn't mean new lows are definitely coming, just that this group are unlikely to buy until they are 100% convinced that this can't happen

 

[willow_hiller]

Thought I would highlight this post on Reddit for a bit of fun weekend speculation: Tesla NZ has changed Model 3 to NEDC range but kept Model S at WLTP : teslamotors

In New Zealand, the Model 3 used to be rated in WLTP but is now rated in NEDC. The only market I know where Tesla has their vehicles rated in NEDC is China. Is it possible Tesla is planning on expanding Giga Shanghai to the point where it can supply the rest of the Pacific?

 

[Mo City]

As far as I know, Karpathy has never given a timeframe?

Notice that Karpathy chooses his words very carefully. He never has and probably never will make promises.

 

[tinm]

This just in - Tesla's doing ok in the world's largest car market:
Tesla Sets Sales Record In China Despite Coronavirus Crisis | OilPrice.com

They don't include Tesla's sales growth. Only that it's Tesla's best month ever, in a month where overall car sales are down 41%.

I tell ya, Oilprice dot com is just so awesome. I make a point of being sure to glance at its home page at least once a day on my phone, just to scroll through the amazing, alarming headlines to each news story. I never have any idea what’s real and what’s just hyperbole/fear, being a total outsider to the oil and gas world (for which I am grateful), but man, it’s something else watching the most powerful industry in the world revealing itself to be nothing more than an increasingly irrelevant twentieth-century dinosaur.

And the cherry on top? Fairly frequently they run stories about—gasp—Tesla, as if they know what the future is and what kind of companies are leading the way.

 

[LJS22]

Saw on twitter from someone with Tesla autopilot “my brain is still just barely keeping up with this reality” makes it sound like some good work is going on there haha. I could see FSD evolving quickly in the next year.

 

[Buckminster]

TroyTeslike on Twitter
Troy predicting 95k deliveries in Q2. I'm in new territory here, urging caution..
Troy has 20,700 to Europe. I think a lot has to go right for that to happen.

 

[ProfTournesol]

TroyTeslike on Twitter
Troy predicting 95k deliveries in Q2. I'm in new territory here, urging caution..
Troy has 20,700 to Europe. I think a lot has to go right for that to happen.

7 ships.

also I posted on the coronavirus tread: Coronavirus

I don't expect a second bottom anymore. I bought a lot @359 looks like that was it Troy could be right, 7 ships is not impossible. But I expect a few less ships to europe, and a higher Y production (less parts) and local sales in USA. Elon will definitely surprise the market again in Q2. Y production is "easier" and production line is ready to go. Margins are higher on Y which will help in a profit for Q2, they will do everything to produce a profit in Q2. If they do, the SP will blast off like a Falcon Heavy on steroids.

Next monday, if the price breaks the 605 point, the stock will climb to 650. Few weeks for the ER in may. Maybe there is a small GAAP loss, but still not sure about it. Cashflow will be (very) positive. I don't expect that the production year end numbers will be revised. They will hold! (still not sure how they will do it, but we can see when Fremont is fully back online). Q2 will remove the words 'with a wide marging" but the number will hold.

 

[Green Pete]

I know musk said that by the Tesla Tesla had produced enough vents to matter it would be too late. Maybe Musk found a market for Tesla Model V that is likely to be hit hard in the coming months still. If they are much cheaper than the competition could be an interesting start to teslas medical devision.

Abiy Ahmed Ali on Twitter - prime minister of ethopia praising musk for his advice over a phone call

 

[flabellina]

I know musk said that by the Tesla Tesla had produced enough vents to matter it would be too late. Maybe Musk found a market for Tesla Model V that is likely to be hit hard in the coming months still. If they are much cheaper than the competition could be an interesting start to teslas medical devision.

Abiy Ahmed Ali on Twitter - prime minister of ethopia praising musk for his advice over a phone call

He also said that all ventilators, weather tesla bought them or built them, will be donated. I don't think he will make an exeption for Africa, of all places.

 

[Singer3000]

7 ships.

also I posted on the coronavirus tread: Coronavirus

I don't expect a second bottom anymore. I bought a lot @359 looks like that was it Troy could be right, 7 ships is not impossible. But I expect a few less ships to europe, and a higher Y production (less parts) and local sales in USA. Elon will definitely surprise the market again in Q2. Y production is "easier" and production line is ready to go. Margins are higher on Y which will help in a profit for Q2, they will do everything to produce a profit in Q2. If they do, the SP will blast off like a Falcon Heavy on steroids.

Next monday, if the price breaks the 605 point, the stock will climb to 650. Few weeks for the ER in may. Maybe there is a small GAAP loss, but still not sure about it. Cashflow will be (very) positive. I don't expect that the production year end numbers will be revised. They will hold! (still not sure how they will do it, but we can see when Fremont is fully back online). Q2 will remove the words 'with a wide marging" but the number will hold.

When the (first wave) lockdown is over, what do you expect the world to look like? Do you expect that life will return more or less to normal?
Social distancing measures may need to remain in place 'indefinitely', government experts believe

The rosy estimates I see on this website seem to be made without any appreciation that the world is unlikely to be anything close to normal until there’s a vaccine.

This said, next week markets will likely rise again, with participants latching their hope onto the pretty inconclusive remdesivir results.

The most sure fire sign that we’re heading for a second bottom is broad consensus among retail that there won’t be a second bottom.

 

[MC3OZ]

7 ships.

also I posted on the coronavirus tread: Coronavirus

I don't expect a second bottom anymore. I bought a lot @359 looks like that was it Troy could be right, 7 ships is not impossible. But I expect a few less ships to europe, and a higher Y production (less parts) and local sales in USA. Elon will definitely surprise the market again in Q2. Y production is "easier" and production line is ready to go. Margins are higher on Y which will help in a profit for Q2, they will do everything to produce a profit in Q2. If they do, the SP will blast off like a Falcon Heavy on steroids.

Next monday, if the price breaks the 605 point, the stock will climb to 650. Few weeks for the ER in may. Maybe there is a small GAAP loss, but still not sure about it. Cashflow will be (very) positive. I don't expect that the production year end numbers will be revised. They will hold! (still not sure how they will do it, but we can see when Fremont is fully back online). Q2 will remove the words 'with a wide marging" but the number will hold.

Here is the latest video from Cathie Wood:-

Quickly summary, she still expects a V-Shaped recovery and is bullish about Genomics.

The there is this tweet:-JPR007 on Twitter
(Actually I think JPR007 is a bit over optimistic here, but his general point is correct)

If you have a Bullish bias like I do, it isn't hard to find stuff to confirm your bias...

This is an unpredictable time, so any prediction could easily turn out wrong, like Cathie, I think there is a lot of money on the sidelines.

 

[MC3OZ]

When the (first wave) lockdown is over, what do you expect the world to look like? Do you expect that life will return more or less to normal?
Social distancing measures may need to remain in place 'indefinitely', government experts believe

The rosy estimates I see on this website seem to be made without any appreciation that the world is unlikely to be anything close to normal until there’s a vaccine.

This said, next week markets will likely rise again, with participants latching their hope onto the pretty inconclusive remdesivir results.

The most sure fire sign that we’re heading for a second bottom is broad consensus among retail that there won’t be a second bottom.

For the record you said the exact opposite to Cathie, she expects there might not be a second bottom because a majority expect a second bottom.

In terms of the vaccine you are right, but we need to get better at living with the virus in the interim, that means identifying what activities can be done with reasonable safety and what additional safety protocols are needed.

My view is government can't afford to shut economies down for 6 months, they also can't risk a free for all with no social distancing restrictions... somewhere in between is a progressive continuum, that needs to be very conservative and evidence based, but slowly opens some additional parts of the economy when it is safe to do so.

I don't know if anyone is trading off rosy estimates, most of the buy-and-hold crew like me, haven't sold anything, and are not overly focused on the next 6 months, those timing the market need to use their own judgement, but should listen to both sides of the argument.

 

[EVMeister]

I know musk said that by the Tesla Tesla had produced enough vents to matter it would be too late.

I think somebody has Tesla on the brain. Substituting other words beginning with "T" with "Tesla" is a key symptom.

 

[UncaNed]

Silence before the Storm

Giga Berlin earlier today. By Tobias Lindh on Youtube:

Our drone heroes now have the neccesary permissions to fly over the area.

How disappointing. Just an empty field? Where's the factory? This sure isn't China!

 

[Unpilot]

How disappointing. Just an empty field? Where's the factory? This sure isn't China!

Yeah all it would take is a little rain and it would just be "a muddy field"

 

[Singer3000]

For the record you said the exact opposite to Cathie, she expects there might not be a second bottom because a majority expect a second bottom.

In terms of the vaccine you are right, but we need to get better at living with the virus in the interim, that means identifying what activities can be done with reasonable safety and what additional safety protocols are needed.

My view is government can't afford to shut economies down for 6 months, they also can't risk a free for all with no social distancing restrictions... somewhere in between is a progressive continuum, that needs to be very conservative and evidence based, but slowly opens some additional parts of the economy when it is safe to do so.

I don't know if anyone is trading off rosy estimates, most of the buy-and-hold crew like me, haven't sold anything, and are not overly focused on the next 6 months, those timing the market need to use their own judgement, but should listen to both sides of the argument.

Cathie Wood is brilliant at talking her own book and promoting her “innovation” fund. Good luck to her, she’s convinced many here to hand over management fees and hopefully she makes them some money.

It wasn’t very many months ago that she was turning logic on its head talking about how this time it was different and yield inversion heralded a near perpetual bull run / period of economic growth due to “innovation”. Fair play Kathie, you are a heck of a sales person.