Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

Of course. When county officials keep getting peppered with phone calls from “journalists” asking “How do you justify Tesla keeping its factory open?” and “Why does Tesla get special exemption?” they’re going to cave to the pressure.

As long as every dealership in the effect areas is also closed (except for service departments), I don't see much of an argument for Tesla to continue to making cars. As an investor I would like them to keep going full steam plus I imagine GM must be shutting down all their factories (hear the sarcasm in that last bit).

"......(GM) Factory workers at plants in the US, however, are being told to remain in place — despite the United Auto Workers union announcing Thursday that a Fiat Chrysler employee at the company’s Kokomo Transmission Plant in Indiana tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus."
Automakers tell non-factory employees to work remote to avoid coronavirus spread

Yes we all here know Tesla is the only evil automaker on the planet.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, has anyone seen any evidence of Rivian ramping up manufacturing? Has there been any increase in activity in the Normal, IL plant? Because if they haven't ramped up manufacturing, then they should be OK (except for the fact that are going to be late delivering anything).

This is true. I imagine Rivian could go indefinitely without bankruptcy as long as they delay manufacturing indefinitely while keeping a lid on advertising expenses. Personally, I hope they ramp sooner rather than later because this will highlight what an amazing job Tesla has done on their vehicles and on cost efficiencies.

 

[woodisgood]

As long as every dealership in the effect areas is also closed (except for service departments), I don't see much of an argument for Tesla to continue to making cars. As an investor I would like them to keep going full steam plus I imagine GM must be shutting down all their factories (hear the sarcasm in that last bit).

"......(GM) Factory workers at plants in the US, however, are being told to remain in place — despite the United Auto Workers union announcing Thursday that a Fiat Chrysler employee at the company’s Kokomo Transmission Plant in Indiana tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus."
Automakers tell non-factory employees to work remote to avoid coronavirus spread

Yes we all here know Tesla is the only evil automaker on the planet.

Yes I understand it may not make sense for Tesla to continue pumping out cars. But what bothers me is that the shutdown will have nothing to do with health and safety but rather the bitching of shorts who believe they are entitled to further downside.

 

[thait84]

The market is shaping up to be a blood bath tomorrow. Futures are hitting the down limit and Tesla is down after hours.

It is crazy that we don't benefit from green days but get red days magnified.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Treasury Secy Warns Unemployment Could Hit 20% Due to CoronaVirus

Could be worse than 2008 Financial crisis.Tesla will not be immune to this serious situation. No jobs, no demand.

 

[MC3OZ]

There are 2 sides to the coin:-

Tails -
Q1 2020 - production, delivery, profit and cash take a sizeable hit form Coronavirus and other factors..

Most of the market expects Tails, in fact it is also true most of this forum now expects Tails and it is the more likely outcome..

If Fremont is forced to close that adds to the problem, but I don't blame Tesla for trying to make cars as these last weeks of a quarter are important and sensible precautions can reduce the risk.

To the extent the market expects Tails it is significantly priced in..

Heads:-
Q1 2020 - good production, good deliveries, some chance of a small profit and cash not overly diminished.

Where we are now almost no one expects Heads, but I've seen no concrete evidence that we can definitely rule it out...

The market definitely hasn't priced in Heads there is not much evidence they are currently treating Tesla as different to any other automaker in this period of the virus scare.

If demand was a problem Tesla would not be so keen to keep Fremont open, they may need to close, but were things stand to day I give Heads 25% chance. If the factory closes in the next day or so that may drop to 10-15%

Of course this is gut feel rather than a mathematical model, there are a lot of number we simply don't have, I don't assume all those numbers are moving in the same direction. I don't assume the current market action reflects a lot of deep thought and analysis.

Not advice - but step back and think if Heads is any chance at all.

I'm focusing on Q1 2020 as that is most relevant short term...

 

[kengchang]

Treasury Secy Warns Unemployment Could Hit 20% Due to CoronaVirus

Could be worse than 2008 Financial crisis.Tesla will not be immune to this serious situation. No jobs, no demand.

Must be coming from the same joker

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Wednesday that a $1.5 trillion Republican-led tax cut package would still pay for itself through higher economic growth.

 

[RobStark]

It’ll be interesting to see how much cash Rivian spends on stores and service centers at product rollout. Oh, and on lawyers and lobbyists for all the state legislatures and dealer cartels that will make Rivian feel most unwelcome.

Right now, Rivian has:

Stores: 0
Service centers: 0
Chargers: 0

Ya, I’d say Rivian isn’t quite ready for “Tesla killer” status.

Rivian will be in a better infrastructure and cash position than when Tesla launched.

And Rivian vehicles will be able to use all CCS chargers.

 

[MC3OZ]

In relation to the virus itself the only safe way to slowly unwind "social distancing" is extensive testing...

Yes testing costs money and takes time, but ultimately testing is better than closed factories and schools.

Some risk management approaches don't need to be unwound any time soon, we don't need crowds at games of sport, that isn't essential.

We do need factories and schools open... and the safe way to open them is, a lot of testing before opening, and regular testing after that.

It is going to take time to get testing in place, but extensive testing has many rewards.

 

[re04586]

Alameda County Sheriff on Twitter

Alameda County Sheriffs interpretation for whatever it’s worth.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Mar 17, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $429.42
Volume: 23,990,652
Traded: $10,302,179,569.22 ($10.30 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.17%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

Comment: "High trading volume as TSLA tests $400 per share."

 

[Thekiwi]

As long as every dealership in the effect areas is also closed (except for service departments), I don't see much of an argument for Tesla to continue to making cars. As an investor I would like them to keep going full steam plus I imagine GM must be shutting down all their factories (hear the sarcasm in that last bit).

"......(GM) Factory workers at plants in the US, however, are being told to remain in place — despite the United Auto Workers union announcing Thursday that a Fiat Chrysler employee at the company’s Kokomo Transmission Plant in Indiana tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus."
Automakers tell non-factory employees to work remote to avoid coronavirus spread

Yes we all here know Tesla is the only evil automaker on the planet.

There is a big difference thought that the Tesla factory is located in an area that is under a stay in place lockdown, preventing anything but essential services from operating. Other US automakers are not in areas where this is in place.

 

[HG Wells]

Treasury Secy Warns Unemployment Could Hit 20% Due to CoronaVirus

Could be worse than 2008 Financial crisis.Tesla will not be immune to this serious situation. No jobs, no demand.

Gee, my personal AI puts it at 35% unemployment by the end of the year.
Secretary Warns is just trying to make Trump look good.

 

[EinSV]

Alameda County Sheriff on Twitter

 

[MC3OZ]

i also think there is a good chance the Trump administration will bail out Boeing and the US oil industry, at least keep them afloat until after the next election.

The last thing Trump needs is major business closing and unemployment spiking, he will be desperate to avoid that.
He may not be totally successful but he sure will try...

The US budget deficit was already bad when Trump took over, Trump has already made it worse, it is about to get significantly worse again, but everyone will be happy to kick that can down the road.

 

[EinSV]

Hello low-$300s tomorrow.

It is one of the most important employers in Alameda County and also is currently running a Gigafactory in China after a covid-19 shutdown. I doubt they'll be shut down too long but we'll see. Hopefully they'll be back up and running soon with covid-19 "best practices" both at work and for commuting.

If the SP does crater over a short-term issue could be a very good opportunity for long-term v. short-term arbitrage.

 

[Papafox]

Problem is they read pop fox’s tsla thread and all he talks about is manipulations when the share price goes down. While there might be partial truth to this, there is much more to the story that is not told. The price could rise, and has if people want to invest in this company. The most likely answer is we are in an economic stand still which is leading us into a recession and people understand the first thing you won’t buy in this type of environment is a car. Plus Tesla has massive working capital to produce its products. Where tech companies don’t. Hence the run to appl fb goog etc. Look at the airlines. HUGE overhead with no paying customers for a short amount of time can cause BK. At least for the airlines, there too big to fail. Tesla will see.

@Md90 , I assume you're referring to yesterday's post of mine because that's the only post you have given a "disagree" to. As I reread that post, I see I entered one sentence to mention @Artful Dodger 's findings regarding naked shorting, but that's pretty much the extent of the manipulations talk in a very long post. Thus, I find your characterization inaccurate and I ask others to reread the post and draw your own conclusions.

What I'm trying to do is to understand what forces are at work moving TSLA right now and in today's post, I present a theory of mine that suggests markets are now discounting TSLA not on the value of the stock, but rather on the value of the stock that somehow discounts the value added as TSLA ran from the 300s to the 900s.

Now I see this excellent post by @Words of HABIT which presents graphs that back up my theory. Notice how TSLA's gains are being undone so that the net gain of TSLA is approaching the net gain of Apple after one year. In other words, the market is discounting the reasons for the gains from the 300s to the 900s, and they are in fact very real: GF3 now producing Model 3s in China and they're selling like hotcakes, GMs are up, substantial positive cash flow every quarter, Model Y production beginning in record time, etc., etc., etc. @Md90 , if you have a better theory, please share it with us so that we can compare the ideas.

Finally, when referencing another TMC member, please use the courtesy of including the @ sign in front of that person's handle so that the member is alerted to being included in a post. Thanks!

 

[mblakele]

Alameda County Sheriff on Twitter

Alameda County Sheriffs interpretation for whatever it’s worth.

View attachment 522918

Alameda County Sheriff on Twitter

I think this thread is more likely to be authoritative:

Scott Haggerty on Twitter

[36m] We’re working with staff at Public Health & Tesla to determine if Tesla’s definition of “essential business” applies, or not. We’ve been working on this all day & will continue to work until its resolved. The safety of the public is our highest concern.​

Scott Haggerty is a county supervisor. I'm not an expert on county governance, but I believe the board of supervisors has the authority to decide this. They could also ask the health department to grant a waiver.

 

[Navin]

Here is a link. This is just panic selling to conjure up support to close Fremont. Agenda driven reporting. Tesla factory is still open for business as Musk tells employees 'I will personally be at work'

CNBC reached out to the electric car maker, Fremont Mayor Lily Mei, the economic development offices of the city of Fremont and public health officials for Alameda County. None responded to requests for comment or further information.

I mean how obvious is this that she is directly trying to shut down Tesla with her reporting.

Here is another example. Blatant efforts to destroy Tesla.
With a lot going on - they think they can get away with it.

 

[EinSV]

I think this thread is more likely to be authoritative:

Scott Haggerty on Twitter

[36m] We’re working with staff at Public Health & Tesla to determine if Tesla’s definition of “essential business” applies, or not. We’ve been working on this all day & will continue to work until its resolved. The safety of the public is our highest concern.​

Scott Haggerty is a county supervisor. I'm not an expert on county governance, but I believe the board of supervisors has the authority to decide this.

Fair point -- there do appear to be conflicting messages so there is some confusion as to whether the County has made a final decision v. the sheriff just interpreting the order. If the Sheriff's interpretation is contrary to what the County wants it can always amend/clarify the order to keep Tesla running (maybe with conditions on distancing, hygiene, commuting, etc.).