Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Eugene Ash]

Considering selling half my shares tomorrow and converting them into LEAPS in the $1200-$1800 range.
Feels smart

If everything gets nuked by market worries, we could be down for a couple of years and TSLA _stock_ won't defy gravity. I sense it will be better than the rest, but still not exempt from a market decline, should one materialize. Apple's guidance update is a good excuse for a sell-off that is somewhat overdue.
With that in mind, are you fine with taking a risk of halving your stock position for a bet, that is probably not mis-priced anymore?

 

[dw4ngg]

Considering selling half my shares tomorrow and converting them into LEAPS in the $1200-$1800 range.
Feels smart

Contingent upon a drop in the AM?

 

[Sancho]

“Bezos announced the initiative, called the Bezos Earth Fund, in a post on Instagram Monday afternoon. The fund will support scientists, activists, non-governmental organizations and “any effort that offers a real possibility to help preserve and protect the natural world,” he said.”

If only Jeff & Elon were friends instead of competitors.

There is little the two have in common. Jeff is out to make a buck (many billions of them), and then he dispenses his largesse on his favorite projects, deflecting some of the bad publicity he and Amazon get. If he and Amazon paid more in taxes, the government could decide how best to combat climate change, rather than the decisions being made in the Jeff Bezos amateur hour.

Elon devotes nearly every waking hour (and even non-waking hours, when he slept on the factory floor) to helping the planet. And he will use nearly all his wealth to make humanity a multi-planet species.

Hard to be friends when your whole reason for being is so different.

 

[davepsilon]

Tesla engages in other kinds of marketing. I've seen a number of reports recently that Tesla has been calling existing customers to see if they are interested in Tesla Solar. Main website updated to put solar up front. Tesla is obviously thinking about how they want to generate demand on their products. It just doesn't happen to be needed today on their cars when they have over two month waiting time for deliveries.

I agree Tesla is certainly thinking about generating demand for their products. I have previously assumed they are leaving money on the table by not advertising and selling for a higher price even when they have a backlog of demand. But over time I have convinced myself that Tesla is approaching the demand generation from another, much more sustainable angle. I think that’s the reason service and supercharger growth features so prominently in the investor communication. Make no mistake about it Tesla is definitely spending on marketing and thinking about long term demand generation.

 

[Beltsbear]

There is little the two have in common. Jeff is out to make a buck (many billions of them), and then he dispenses his largesse on his favorite projects, deflecting some of the bad publicity he and Amazon get. If he and Amazon paid more in taxes, the government could decide how best to combat climate change, rather than the decisions being made in the Jeff Bezos amateur hour.

Elon devotes nearly every waking hour (and even non-waking hours, when he slept on the factory floor) to helping the planet. And he will use nearly all his wealth to make humanity a multi-planet species.

Hard to be friends when your whole reason for being is so different.

You just sold me on Jeff not paying taxes. You think the current US administration is going to spend those dollars fighting climate change better then Jeff? I don’t. And even a climate friendly administration is going to spend 1/10 max to fight climate change but probably less.

 

[oldTAVguy]

absolutely. you play by the rules as written, not by how you WISH they were written. to do otherwise is only punishing yourself out of anger at someone else. it's fundamentally irrational.

Tesla wants to succeed in transitioning the world to sustainable transportation.

Advertising would help that mission, period.

Any argument to the contrary is emotion-based ("wahhh i dont want Tesla to give money to mean old magazines") or deeply ignorant of how advertising works ("i mistakenly believe i don't pay attention to ads, therefore ads aren't effective").

As a small long investor in TSLA, I feel that advertising would not help Tesla.

Tesla cannot fill current demand so why create more demand which could cause more frustration. Better places for the limited money are the supercharger network, service and support, batteries, batteries and did I mention BATTERIES.

Advertising could also overshadow some of the spirit that Tesla owners/supporters have. If Tesla is singing it's own praise then maybe we will feel not as important to the mission and tone down our own singing.

 

[Zero CO2]

At which price did you get out of MSFT? They went from 35 to ~180 in the last 5 years....
Even last year ~115 to 180 still a move that might be questionable.
He is a Porsche fan and given VW.OS relationship, would he drive anything else? Plus, how often does he actually drive?
So before bashing, I'd ask, did i donate billions to causes in Africa, did i invest millions in carbon sequestration technologies?
Could he have backed up the EV movement early - absolutely. Did you notice that the company he founded made a commitment to go carbon negative?

I think you are making my point for me we cannot engineer our way out of climate change we must change our behavior to sustainable energy and reduce our fossil fuel consumption... if you told me he invested millions or better yet billions in wind/solar/hydro/geothermal/biomass energy that would be impressive

....I got out of MSFT last year after a good 10 year run ... tired of these billionaires pledging this or that on climate change .. so far it is not working ... he stands to inherit Buffets fortune next into Gates foundation.... he can do or say whatever helps him sleep at night... not bashing just calling as i see it ...so I hope we can agree to disagree

MSFT was just about making $$$ it had no greater or moral purpose ... and I can bash if I want to

 

[SpaceCash]

Contingent upon a drop in the AM?

Nah was more thinking sell in AM, assess movement and buy the LEAPS Thursday or friday, regardless of tomorrow opening price

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Tesla shouldn’t even think about advertising until they have a 1:18 scale Cybertruck and Cybertruck for kids in the Tesla shop. Those will create an endless supply of memes and youtube videos. And margins should be great because of the folded steel construction.

 

[Zero CO2]

I see a lot of people over-reacting to the G4 "environmental" activism. This is normal stuff, rest assured the G4 will get built in the exact spot as planned, it just might take a week to a few months longer. This is minor stuff and laws are laws and they will be followed. In the end, there will be a giant new GF4 cranking out thousands of the best cars in the world.

Every EU country has it's risks, the Germans are pragmatic people, they understand the risks of AGW and they have a lot of expertise in giant machines, automation, etc. I think Germany was an EXCELLENT choice for the future of Tesla and the little bit of noise we have seen to date doesn't make me doubt that one bit, not even a tiny bit.

I hope your right. I do not pretend to understand the laws/politics in Germany ... just looking at the obvious competitive aspects and the realization by VW, BMW, Daimler just how far behind they are at this point ... they might want to slow GF4 down a lot ... in fact any decision to change countries has to be done now as all the steps in the process could drag on for extra weeks and months

 

[Rammstein]

Tesla should build smart homes. I’m sure they could make an amazing smart home. Everything voice command, solar, batteries, air conditioning, and heating. That would sell like crazy.

 

[Zero CO2]

An interesting article:

Tesla Is the Rock Star of the Automobile World For 1 Reason

Summary they have forced their competition into an " Innovators Dilemma"

 

[steak&chicken]

Tesla engages in other kinds of marketing. I've seen a number of reports recently that Tesla has been calling existing customers to see if they are interested in Tesla Solar. Main website updated to put solar up front. Tesla is obviously thinking about how they want to generate demand on their products. It just doesn't happen to be needed today on their cars when they have over two month waiting time for deliveries.

I signed up for Tesla Solarglass roof and Powerwalls. The problem is Tesla has yet to install any solar or Powerwalls in Georgia and no one knows when that will change. I doubt it's going to happen this year.

 

[Intl Professor]

They don’t need to be friends. Just work towards the same goals.

All of us are stakeholders in the fate of climate change. We should welcome all help, especially those with more oars to row back the change.

 

[Eugene Ash]

I think you are making my point for me we cannot engineer our way out of climate change we must change our behavior to sustainable energy and reduce our fossil fuel consumption... if you told me he invested millions or better yet billions in wind/solar/hydro/geothermal/biomass energy that would be impressive

....I got out of MSFT last year after a good 10 year run ... tired of these billionaires pledging this or that on climate change .. so far it is not working ... he stands to inherit Buffets fortune next into Gates foundation.... he can do or say whatever helps him sleep at night... not bashing just calling as i see it ...so I hope we can agree to disagree

MSFT was just about making $$$ it had no greater or moral purpose ... and I can bash if I want to

You obviously care about CO2, as do I, as does Bill, and i don't think we differ or disagree.
He is co-funding a moonshot direct air capture tech: How Bill Gates aims to clean up the planet
He obviously approved a plan for Microsoft to go carbon negative: Microsoft Is Going Carbon Negative. What Does That Mean?

I would hate a fellow Tesla fan to fall victim to confirmation bias, thus my attempts to update you on Bill's efforts.
We all live on 1 planet (...still )

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla should build smart homes. I’m sure they could make an amazing smart home. Everything voice command, solar, batteries, air conditioning, and heating. That would sell like crazy.

They could get a robot to 3D print a house out of Boring CO bricks, with a design optimised for install of a Tesla Solar roof etc....

Done right for thermal mass,passive solar, insulation. design, it can be a great house for a good price....

They can do the smart house software as a product in the meantime featuring:- Tesla Steps Into The Utility Space With New Grid Controller Patent | CleanTechnica

I've seen a video of a robot 3D printing a house of out bricks ,,, great viewing for a tech nerd...

I see no end of things Tesla can do, when they have time and money ... for now it is better to focus on the core products..

 

[theschnell]

I think TSLA is going up tomorrow like most Monday / Tuesdays of recent history, despite the unfavorable news from GF4.

And I think Tesla will find an alternative if they are forced to wait 7 months before breaking ground.

 

[sparcs]

I signed up for Tesla Solarglass roof and Powerwalls. The problem is Tesla has yet to install any solar or Powerwalls in Georgia and no one knows when that will change. I doubt it's going to happen this year.

i won't try to predict, but it's obvious that Tesla is putting more resources into Solar now that Model 3 ramp issues are behind them. They are training people for nationwide rollout as of Elon's tweet two days ago:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Tesla is ramping up Solar Roof installation across the USA! Training will be provided, so no prior experience needed. Apply at

(And there were other tweets that discussed a rollout internationally as well.)

 

[SpaceCash]

i won't try to predict, but it's obvious that Tesla is putting more resources into Solar now that Model 3 ramp issues are behind them. They are training people for nationwide rollout as of Elon's tweet two days ago:

Elon Musk on Twitter


(And there were other tweets that discussed a rollout internationally as well.)

I applied.
Might need a new job after recent events...

Also, someone asserted above that TSLA is no longer mispriced and I strongly disagree. I have based my investing strategy all last year on the thesis that I believe fair value is already a $250bn market cap. As in today. So LEAPS with roughly double today's value look safe to me barring apocalyptic world economy developments.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Tesla should build smart homes. I’m sure they could make an amazing smart home. Everything voice command, solar, batteries, air conditioning, and heating. That would sell like crazy.

From CO2 standpoint it should be the next goal, after transportation. Given their patent on multi-level/node energy distibution/balancing they can outsmart any modern smart home in smooth energy consumption.
Controlling loads like ac, water heating and combining with solar and battery is key as states phaze out net metering. On one hand TSLA can be a large generator, and on the other manage loads to contribute to grid stability and security. That is definitely the next frontier in [at least my] TSLA investment thesis.