Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maitri982]

Move to almost any other developed country?

But we have a space force!

 

[Dylan]

We need autopilot with city driving released to launch the SP into orbit.

 

[humbaba]

I thought by providing the writer that I was not doing anything illegal...but now that I think about it perhaps that is just with plagiarism?

Spoiler: OT: Citing/Quoting Articles

In general, just linking to an article isn't that useful. It really helps to have a summary or response to it. What I try to do is quote snippets and provide commentary. While the legalities of copying someone else's content is murky*, one of the points considered is the amount of the content -- so while a complete copy isn't necessarily illegal it is a very significant strike against and it is understandable why the terms of service here would simply forbid it.

My suggestion is to avoid just posting links and to only quote portions that you are commenting on.

* I say that because it can really only be settled in court due to it being a matter of interpreting guidelines

edit: after thought -- if this is "OT" why post it? Because it is topical in the meta sense and I think the point is worth broader exposure than a PM. But using spoiler to assist those who don't care in just scrolling past.

 

[Cosmacelf]

OK I'm slow to pick this up. All this time I just focused on the costs savings by cutting out the middle man dealership for tesla and saving me from car salesman.

Elon is 3 steps ahead and saw there would be no incentive for the dealership as there is no services that they can really profit from.

The dealership model will be a big component to the demise of the established automakers. Too big to change and forces within backstabbing each other to fight for a dwindling piece of pie.

And it was a damn hard decision to make at the time, not going with dealers. With the Roadster, Tesla was selling hundreds of cars a year. It would have been far cheaper to partner with a dealership franchise for them to service and support their cars. Building out a service network was nuts.

Rivian is initially planning on selling almost 10x the volume that Tesla initially had, and they've raised way more money than Tesla did, and even they are going to partner with dealers for service and support.

Elon never makes the easy decision, he makes the correct one.

 

[rsm287]

I think we have to start looking at what is potential revenue top for Tesla’s market in both auto and energy. If it’s growth goes far beyond that of a 265bln top, then 1T should be achieved well before 265bln in revenues. We must assess 1T valuation on continued growth basis beyond it, much as the same way we do today’s valuation beyond 140bln.

It is a bit of a mental block for valuing it like this because we’ve never seen it. But we also never have seen 1T tech company till last year and now we have multiple. Not to mention the 6T valuation of Saudi Arabia Oil Company. Tesla going to continue trend of creating new normals.

Ron Baron agrees with the potential for $1T in revenues by 2030 (and he obviously has more access to Elon and other execs in Tesla):

Listen from about 2:40

 

[azaz]

4th day of solid consolidation in a row

 

[EinSV]

I think we have to start looking at what is potential revenue top for Tesla’s market in both auto and energy. If it’s growth goes far beyond that of a 265bln top, then 1T should be achieved well before 265bln in revenues. We must assess 1T valuation on continued growth basis beyond it, much as the same way we do today’s valuation beyond 140bln.

It is a bit of a mental block for valuing it like this because we’ve never seen it. But we also never have seen 1T tech company till last year and now we have multiple. Not to mention the 6T valuation of Saudi Arabia Oil Company. Tesla going to continue trend of creating new normals.

Napkin math:

20 million vehicles per year (per Elon) x $35K ASP (very conservative, less than current average US passenger vehicle)=$700B
Add estimate for storage+solar+app store+insurance+finance+????

And if autonomy works, Ark believes it is a $4T opportunity by 2024 and $9T opportunity by 2029. Tasha Keeney on Twitter If Tesla captures a significant portion of that market all bets are off ....

 

[Foghat]

Ron Baron agrees with the potential for $1T in revenues by 2030 (and he obviously has more access to Elon and other execs in Tesla):

Listen from about 2:40

Is 1T in revenues the top? Or is there still growth beyond 2030?

This is the mind boggling thought that goes beyond much of what we know about how to value it.

Someone should ask Baron the simple question does he expect continued growth beyond 2030? If so, 1T of revenue not a top and Tesla at 1T revenue will have a higher multiple of that as market valuation.

Again, Saudi Oil Company is valued at 6T and at it top... is that revenue the top for Tesla or can an argument be made Tesla can become bigger than saudi oil?

And for those that want to know how much their 1000 shares are worth at that point, Ark Invest 2024 best case would become a buy opportunity. A nice payday for changing the world for the better. Thank you and pay it forward.

 

[rsm287]

Is 1T in revenues the top? Or is there still growth beyond 2030?

This is the mind boggling thought that goes beyond much of what we know about how to value it.

Someone should ask Baron the simple question does he expect continued growth beyond 2030? If so, 1T of revenue not a top and Tesla at 1T revenue will have a higher multiple of that as market valuation.

That may depend on whether or not Elon is still CEO by then or whether he's on Mars! If Elon is still there then I don't doubt he will have plenty of ideas to bring in more revenue!

 

[JustSaying]

Nuns?

Like These? Many bad memories. My knuckles still hurt....

 

[rsm287]

Seems like a fairly concerted effort to push the SP down at the moment

 

[StealthP3D]

OT
Yahoo finance is running a totally unrelated car crash video right on top of a no-news-re-hash article of the 2018 BayArea Model X crash.
View attachment 510206
Are they trying to fool people into thinking there is a new crash?
At least I was fooled for a minute.

Look at all the mayhem that Tesla caused!

 

[bhtooefr]

I'd also argue that the Semi business is worth another big chunk and I'm only separating that because Toyota and VW don't sell semis.

They do, though, they're just not sold in the US.

Hino makes semis and is part of the Toyota Group, and as I understand is quite a big deal through Asia and Australia. (Their medium-duty trucks are sold in North America, though.)

Traton is part of Volkswagen AG, and owns MAN, Scania, and VW's Brazilian truck operations.

The Tesla Semi in its current form doesn't really compete against Hino or Traton's products, however, simply due to length - European and Japanese markets have tight length restrictions on trucks, which favor cabover designs with effectively no nose at all, and short wheelbases and lower axle counts (or, in the Japanese market, they just go for rigid trucks far more often).

 

[Nocturnal]

They do, though, they're just not sold in the US.

Hino makes semis and is part of the Toyota Group, and as I understand is quite a big deal through Asia and Australia. (Their medium-duty trucks are sold in North America, though.)

Traton is part of Volkswagen AG, and owns MAN, Scania, and VW's Brazilian truck operations.

The Tesla Semi in its current form doesn't really compete against Hino or Traton's products, however, simply due to length - European and Japanese markets have tight length restrictions on trucks, which favor cabover designs with effectively no nose at all, and short wheelbases and lower axle counts (or, in the Japanese market, they just go for rigid trucks far more often).

Ah, I didn't know VW owned Scania.

 

[Lessmog]

Stanphyll Capital

(Hints for Karen's shell enterprise)
On that note might I suggest "Stay&Fyll Capital" for the longer term?

 

[Unpilot]

Ford is up .68% GM is up 2.5% and Fiat Chrysler is up 1.5% and TSLA is flat....makes sense.

 

[SageBrush]

It's definitely an odd, but good feeling when the market is more bullish in the near term on Tesla stock than I am. Of course that means I don't know what to do so I guess I'll just hold.

There aren't any answers there. I work as an independent under an LLC. I pay $500 a month for and individual crap insurance plan for a healthy 39 year old.

If you can keep your AGI within ACA limits, look there.
2, if you are healthy (and by that I also include a healthy lifestyle) and have savings, buy a bronze plan AKA catastrophic coverage with HSA eligibility.

My wife and I are ~ 60 years old. We end up paying ~ $500 out of pocket expenses a year from our pre-tax HSA account and our ACA premiums have been $0 for years.

 

[KarenRei]

Like These? Many bad memories. My knuckles still hurt....
View attachment 510228

One of my favorite QI riddles goes along the lines of... the word "noon" comes from "non" in the 12th century, meaning "nine", as in "the canonical hour of nones". So if you had to meet a 12th century nun at noon, what time would you noodle off to the nunnery?

Spoiler

3 PM. The canonical day began at 6 AM. The reason for the shift to 12 PM is unclear.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Model Y sightings almost everywhere in the US now, waiting for first deliveries event.

 

[Lessmog]

I think 5G is a cellular network tech. It works in cities. More people, more cells.

Starlink will work best for low population density areas. Your bandwidth will be inversely proportionate to the number of pizza dish receivers under the satellites.

i may find it hard to stuff a pizza box size phased array antenna in my pocket.

Is that a pizza box in your pocket, ...

Well, it's a little more discreet without the shorts.
NO WAIT, I didn't mean it like that! !1!!