Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Don't count on Friday being down. If you want to buy more stock, do so. While no one knows the future, the price on Friday is not likely to be appreciably less than it is now and it could be appreciably more. There were people who were "waiting for the drop" at $500 and they're still waiting...

If you don't want to pay current prices for whatever reason, that's fine. For example, I decided I was too heavy on $TSLA and put money elsewhere. If the shorts/MM/whoever knock the price down far enough it will become a deal that is too good to resist and I'll sell the other and buy more $TSLA. But, for me, they'll have to reach for a nice big discount and I'm not really expecting it. (It helps that this is in an IRA so I don't have to worry about taxes on short term trades.)

In short, trying to time the market is foolish: if you want $TSLA buy $TSLA. Being flexible with your assets is fine, but keep in your mind that holding it as cash is an implicit belief that doing so will provide higher returns -- but your post seems to lack conviction in that regard.

One tries to time the market on stock they’re iffy about, not stocks they’re sure about. In regards to Tesla, accumulate slowly is best.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Thanks. Is this your own chart, or available somewhere online?

Not mine. I was going to create this exact chart, but I found that it was already available within Franco Mossotto's carrier spreadsheet.

 

[Chocochip]

Wait.. we're up 1% today.. so didn't you make 60% of 1 month's worth of salary today even if you didn't come to work?

Yes, that's the point! My energy expenditure vs. reward ratio is messed up...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Starting to see some buyers show up in the order book. We may get a bump in the price soon.

 

[JusRelax]

Yes, that's the point! My energy expenditure vs. reward ratio is messed up...

I totally get the feeling. I feel like it's more worth it for me to research Tesla 100% every day than it is to actually go to work lol.

 

[Nocturnal]

Graph of cumulative quarterly deliveries since 2012.

The millionth delivery may take place sometime in March, Tesla should make a big deal out of it.

View attachment 510200

Nun demand!

 

[Chocochip]

I totally get the feeling. I feel like it's more worth it for me to research Tesla 100% every day than it is to actualy go to work lol.

I approve!
But my wife doesn't...

 

[lafrisbee]

Allen AdamsonContributor
CMO Network


The headlines about the valuation of Tesla seem to multiply along with the company’s share price. As the electric-car maker’s market value recently topped $100 billion, it’s clear that Elon Musk has driven Tesla into a new zone. ...

Mod: Copyright image and most of article deleted. @lafrisbee, you're new here, but to all, do not do this. It's illegal and against the terms of service. --ggr

I thought by providing the writer that I was not doing anything illegal...but now that I think about it perhaps that is just with plagiarism?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Starting to see some buyers show up in the order book. We may get a bump in the price soon.

Slow climb on modest volume, delightful. Nobody(NOBODY) is getting in or covering in big chunks without triggering spikes. I have no idea what I'm talking about, but this seems like a wonderful setup to me and should lead to god knows what kind of scrambling prior to 1Q earnings/deliveries/whatever. It's like there's no float at all.

 

[Fact Checking]

Not mine. I was going to create this exact chart, but I found that it was already available within Franco Mossotto's carrier spreadsheet.

So the format looked familiar, and I actually clicked through all the charts on Franco's spreadsheet to make sure it's not there already.

So I went again, and indeed, by clicking on the unassuming "Distribution" tab there's a whole new world of shipping charts!

 

[JusRelax]

Starting to see some buyers show up in the order book. We may get a bump in the price soon.

Nice call! I'm beginning to wonder if I should invest in that lev 2 order book data.

 

[anthonyj]

BIG call buying

 

[azaz]

going up $5 because Fred posted an article confirming cell production OTW when everyone here has known about Tesla's cell production plans for months now is so silly

 

[phantasms]

I totally get the feeling. I feel like it's more worth it for me to research Tesla 100% every day than it is to actually go to work lol.

If I could find reasonable health insurance for a reasonable cost I would absolutely leave my job to focus on day trading and TSLA trading.
[if anyone has any decent answers to this puzzle Please PM me.]

 

[dl003]

If I could find reasonable health insurance for a reasonable cost I would absolutely leave my job to focus on day trading and TSLA trading.
[if anyone has any decent answers to this puzzle Please PM me.]

Move to Vietnam.

 

[Foghat]

I’m curious, if people are saying Tesla will be a 1T company, what level of revenue to do expect that 1T company to generate? 100bln in revenue by 2030?

At 1T valuation in 2030, do people think Tesla’s growth is slower than it is today? If not will the stock price have baked in that growth in the 1T valuation in 2030?

If 8-10X of revenue is the baked into stock price for growth, is 100bln+ in revenue ten years off or will Tesla achieve this revenue mark much sooner?

For reference Saudi Arabia Oil Company is valued at over $6trillion...

 

[ammulder]

The one other thing to keep in mind is that because EVs last longer than ICE, the production won't need to be as high going into the future because the average age of vehicles will be longer.

I would have said the opposite -- because EVs are changing (for the better) so much more rapidly than ICEs, people are more likely to want quicker upgrades! I mean, how many here were considering a new Model 3/Y when the Air Suspension rumor just floated through? What if the battery life or charge speed doubles in the next 3-5 years?

I had my last car for 21 years, and I strongly doubt I'll have my Model 3 anything close to that long. (Guess that's in part, why I'm here!)

 

[samppa]

Too big to deploy: How GPT-2 is breaking production

I am starting to feel this represents where we are going and what will be needed for FSD. That may mean that to get to full FSD we need the next iteration of the FSD board that was alluded to in the autonomy day presentation.

So Dojo (also custom board methinks) for training and then FSD 3.0 with huge memory/compute for processing the what will become enormous neural nets to drive the car.

This is especially true now that they are baking more control into the DL net, so these things will likely end up huge with many billions of parameters to handle the driving task, which is complex.

Not sure if you pay attention to comma.ai but they are particularly amazing given that they drive pretty damn well with single cell phone camera and camera CPU/GPU + car radar. Imagine what savvy people could do with 8 cams, ultrasonic sensors and radar + serious dedicated board?

So still waiting on order of mag improvement release...hope its in 2020.

I have openpilot on my pre-ap S. It's amazing and drives really well. Beats ap1 hands down.

 

[Robertj]

Starting to see some buyers show up in the order book. We may get a bump in the price soon.

Where do you get that information from ?

 

[Runarbt]

Nun demand!

Nuns?