Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Yeah, but the buying got absorbed too. A lot of sellers of some form must've materialized yesterday if a large buyer was able to accumulate shares at 'discount' prices.

Yesterday's forcing of the price from $800 to $760 on very high volume felt artificial to me: it was either delta hedging inventory adjustment after last week's successful operation of extinguishing ~100,000 calls, or people were selling their short term calls.

The second half of the trading day felt more like the usual price action.

At this point I'd like to note that yesterday Susquehanna Securities filed a 13G/A showing them with 12 million TSLA shares, 6% of Tesla, the second biggest institutional shareholder:

Tesla, Inc. Ownership Acquisition Statement SC 13G/A​

But they are a shadowy, secretive quant trading firm with Koch connections - and they've been consistently bearish on Tesla - with a 50,000 TSLA put contracts short position at a certain point IIRC.

While it's possible that they are now bullish on Tesla, another possibility is that they wrote tens of thousands of TSLA calls back in November-December, under the assumption that Tesla wouldn't break out of the $390 range, and after the $400 breakout they might have had no choice but to delta hedge those contracts in January, while working full time on gaming expiry days as much as possible.

As a market maker they'd only have to recognize a loss on those calls if they get exercised or expire in the money.

It's also entirely possible that Susquehanna is executing a complicated options strategy, and that the 12 million shares are to hedge recently written calls.

(But this is speculation.)

 

[Tslynk67]

I was advised that whenever do I anything that incurs a tax hit regardless in my private account - such as rolling spreads - reinvestment should subsequently be done in the private company. So for example, I'd sell the lower spread from my private account, then buy the newer, higher spread through the company.

I have two accounts with my broker, one personal, one company. The broker allows transfer of equities between the two for a small fee. The benefit of this is that I don't then pay the fee or the taxes on the trade. The transfer itself, from a personal and corporate tax perspective is treated as a sell and a buy.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Oh, I think you will do great if you hold through all the volatility, I'm just saying if it troubles you, you should just sell it. Profits are not worth an uncomfortable life. Volatility affects some people much more than others.

I'd add that acceptance of volatility can be learned. Ideally in small doses to inoculate you for when you make larger investments.

 

[Thekiwi]

FYI, even in China the bears are running out of FUD.

The only FUD they can run on MIC Model 3 is constantly predict the price will be reduced again.

Until I saw this today, it almost gave me heart attack.
View attachment 510110
The title says, “Tesla model 3 reduced price again, new price as low as 220k RMB”

Then in the article it actually said an “expert” “predicted” it’s “highly likely” the price “could be” reduced in the future.
View attachment 510112
I double checked Chinese model 3 order page, no the price didn’t change, it’s still 299k RMB.

This article appears in an investment news aggregation site, I could not find the source anywhere.

They turned to bluntly lie in the title, instead of just click baiting.

If this is the best they can come up with, I feel Model 3 is getting unstoppable there.

The poison tongued siren of clickbait knows no language or cultural barriers.

 

[Foghat]

If analysts do estimates for potential Tesla marketshare on global auto sales and Robotaxi revenue, why don’t they do estimates on Tesla marketshare of global energy capacity and kwh sales?

Over an equivalent time horizon for global auto market share, what would be 10% of global energy capacity as well as 10% of global energy sales at an average of .05$/kwh added to revenue?

 

[Intl Professor]

Papafox,

snip

Since I believe the TSLA battle between longs and shorts will be studied at Wharton’s School of Business for decades and will continue for years; any color you might add to the ebb and flow of the battle lines would be greatly appreciated.

In short, I would like to be better schooled at entry and exit points. Not asking for much, huh? As always, with the greatest respect.

JB Leonard

I think of it in these terms and use Buffet's rule for change greed vs timing. With volatile growth stocks there are times when there is panic buying. That is a time to sell. Then profit taking can ensue or the short leap in, and a substantial fall is possible but may or may not happen. In the week that was, we had a run that on some days had near back to be +20 % gains, which started tp drop so I sold all in a Roth IRA @$906. Then when it reached 740s bought back 7 shares @ $744 and then most of the rest at $723. Net result. 29 more shares and $10,000 more cash.

I would look for another rise like the last, and do the same on really positive news. Not an advice. I tried this years ago and it backfired.

 

[Sancho]

Yesterday's forcing of the price from $800 to $760 on very high volume felt artificial to me: it was either delta hedging inventory adjustment after last week's successful operation of extinguishing ~100,000 calls, or people were selling their short term calls.

The second half of the trading day felt more like the usual price action.

At this point I'd like to note that yesterday Susquehanna Securities filed a 13G/A showing them with 12 million TSLA shares, 6% of Tesla, the second biggest institutional shareholder:

Tesla, Inc. Ownership Acquisition Statement SC 13G/A​

But they are a shadowy, secretive quant trading firm with Koch connections - and they've been consistently bearish on Tesla - with a 50,000 TSLA put contracts short position at a certain point IIRC.

While it's possible that they are now bullish on Tesla, another possibility is that they wrote tens of thousands of TSLA calls back in November-December, under the assumption that Tesla wouldn't break out of the $390 range, and after the $400 breakout they might have had no choice but to delta hedge those contracts in January, while working full time on gaming expiry days as much as possible.

As a market maker they'd only have to recognize a loss on those calls if they get exercised or expire in the money.

It's also entirely possible that Susquehanna is executing a complicated options strategy, and that the 12 million shares are to hedge recently written calls.

(But this is speculation.)

OK, now you've got my attention. This is the kind of player that really could manipulate TSLA. They have been making huge swings in the amount of TSLA they've owned over the years, and have very large option interests, including a net put option value of almost 2 billion. It would definitely be worth shining a spotlight on their trading activities.

Here's some info I saw reported about their positions in November (a few month before what was reported in the current filing):

November 14, 2019 - Susquehanna International Group, Llp has filed a 13F-HR form disclosing ownership of 158,805 shares of Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) with total holdings valued at $38,252,000 USD as of September 30, 2019. Susquehanna International Group, Llp had filed a previous 13F-HR on August 14, 2019 disclosing 28,159 shares of Tesla Motors, Inc. at a value of $6,292,000 USD. This represents a change in shares of -44.65 percent and a change in value of -40.34 percent during the quarter.

Susquehanna International Group, Llp has a history of taking positions in derivatives of the underlying security (TSLA) in the form of stock options. The firm currently holds 8,680,600 call options valued at $2,090,896,000 USD and 15,733,900 put options valued at $3,789,825,000 USD .

 

[AlexS]

Susquehanna International Group, Llp has a history of taking positions in derivatives of the underlying security (TSLA) in the form of stock options. The firm currently holds 8,680,600 call options valued at $2,090,896,000 USD and 15,733,900 put options valued at $3,789,825,000 USD .

Are these option positions as of 31.12.19 or where did you get this info?

 

[Sancho]

Are these option positions as of 31.12.19 or where did you get this info?

Susquehanna International Group, Llp reports 44.65% decrease in ownership of TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc. - 13F, 13D, 13G Filings - Fintel.io

 

[Fact Checking]

Susquehanna International Group, Llp has a history of taking positions in derivatives of the underlying security (TSLA) in the form of stock options. The firm currently holds 8,680,600 call options valued at $2,090,896,000 USD and 15,733,900 put options valued at $3,789,825,000 USD .

Are these shares-equivalent options positions, I.e. x100?

This would suggest 86k call contracts and 156k put contracts. Is it clear from these reports whether they are long or short options?

 

[DrMazeppa]

Is today Groundhog Day?

 

[Sancho]

Are these shares-equivalent options positions, I.e. x100?

This would suggest 86k call contracts and 156k put contracts. Is it clear from these reports whether they are long or short options?

It’s not clear whether they are long or short. But just taking a quick look back at their filings from what I could find on Google paints a pretty interesting picture. It looks like they went over 5% TSLA equity in December 2018. My guess is that was due to covering as TSLA SP was rising in late 2018. Then throughout 2019 they sold the lion’s share of that stake as TSLA cratered (and of course their selling amplified that crater). Then just in the last quarter they had to buy all the way back over 6% of TSLA, presumably to cover again as the SP rose.

These guys are classic quant traders. They idolize star poker players. The head guys sits on the board of Koch’s Cato Institute.

Yikes! They have the means to manipulate, and the motive. If they were making some of the suspiciously timed trades we’ve been seeing, it would be of interest to the Justice Department.

 

[AlexS]

Are these shares-equivalent options positions, I.e. x100?

This would suggest 86k call contracts and 156k put contracts. Is it clear from these reports whether they are long or short options?

this is very old data, I think it will take some more hours or days more to get call and put situation by Susquehanna as of end of q4 2019. Well this will be also old data of course.

 

[Fact Checking]

this is very old data, I think it will take some more hours or days more to get call and put situation by Susquehanna as of end of q4 2019. Well this will be also old data of course.

Yeah, I realize that these are the Q4'18 figures, but they had a similar stake in Tesla back then as well, possibly as a hedge for call options written, so I think they might today have a similar options position as well.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Oy! How did I miss this gem: "The big boys are jumping in, like Exxon." Does anyone know what he would be talking about there? I don't recall seeing Exxon's name associated with batteries (at least, not in a positive way

It's a shame that Exxon et al don't do more with their Intellectual capital. They've likely been hiring some of the best chemists and scientists for decades. E.g. their scientists could relatively accurately predict global warming the best part of half a century ago.

It's a shame they don't devote some of that capital to battery science, they are in a better position than many to make rapid progress.

They might even save their company.

 

[Dare]

It's a shame that Exxon et al don't do more with their Intellectual capital. They've likely been hiring some of the best chemists and scientists for decades. E.g. their scientists could relatively accurately predict global warming the best part of half a century ago.

It's a shame they don't devote some of that capital to battery science, they are in a better position than many to make rapid progress.

They might even save their company.

What’s interesting is that they were called out on their lies from a blog post they authored here in 2015:

When it comes to climate change, read the documents

Which in retrospect was incredibly arrogant, because the truth was in plain sight, and someone found it. Of course this has never gotten the amount of coverage it deserves. A tragedy.

This news clip explains more:

 

[nativewolf]

@CorneliusXX -the exxon that bought the synthetic oil from algae company for a billion to just shut it down? The one that shuttered all the advanced science groups and environmental groups? You're absolutely right that it is a shame but starting in 80s they made the decision to be evil. No other way to describe it.

Big oil has proven itself to be vile. The good news is that they may almost disappear in 20 years. Good riddance.

 

[aubreymcfato]

So, I met with a tax advisor today. He recommended starting a private company and doing my stock trading within it, so that it can be done pretax. I think I'm going to take him up on the idea.

What do you think about the name "Grunnsamlegt Skúffufyrirtæki ehf" ("Suspicious Shell Corporation Inc.")?

Will you sell your financial services?
I'm in!

 

[bhtooefr]

Not Stanphyll Capital Inc.

Chlorophyll Capital.

Speaking of which, don't look at the premarket.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Chlorophyll Capital.

Speaking of which, don't look at the premarket.

It's been like that all morning.