Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

No short squeeze, that'll look different.


I'm not hear about short covering in size occurring on the street - looks like long buying is driving up #Tesla's stock price and not $TSLA short covering.
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Dmitriy
Replying to @ihors3
@ihors3 - do you see today's price action driven by a short squeeze/covering?

I would encourage shorts to hold on just as long as they can. We need the extra supply of shares.

 

[phantasms]

I wouldn't know. I'm an actual idiot making big money on options.

Can you explain it to a bigger idiot who's making big paper bank long but would like to use his knowledge of the company/stock to play options? Please.

 

[jkirkwood001]

...If you were gong to buy another option contract right now, which expiration and strike price would you consider a pretty girl at the party?

???

Thanks in advance. I'm still trying learning and have a ways to go.

Everyone please stop with the "pretty girl" analogies. You're not buying a person - you're buying a stock. It's not funny or 'cute' to many of us.

 

[lascavarian]

So, I am thinking that after the Wednesday evening Tesla CC, some analysts review EM comments about retail investors.

Gee there are a lot of posts, like 6,000 plus posts at TMC so this gets offloaded to the admin assistant. Admin gets told to read all the posts and summarize for first thing Monday morning. Boom!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I looked into this a few months ago but as far as I could see there was no way for someone in Europe to buy part of any ARK ETFs

At least here in Sweden (and I assume that's an EU thing) you aren't allowed to buy US funds (not sure if it's all but certainly many) anylonger. Not sure when that happened and you can still hold and sell but not allowed to buy.

 

[StealthP3D]

But there's no possible way short covering can cause a move like this. TSLA isn't some liquidity constrained / low float mid-cap.

I don't know why you would say this. If you assume normal trading with a slight buy-side bias and slowly rising prices and throw in a bunch of short covering to the mix, it will look just like this. Heck, it could look just like this even with a slight sell-side bias before adding in the short covering.

On Friday I suspected we were looking at the start of a short-squeeze due to the nature of the rise near the end of the day.

 

[HG Wells]

I think I'm gonna forget to go to work today. Since I work for myself, what am I gonna do? Fire me?

I have threatened to fire myself several times.
It doesn't motivate after the third or fourth time.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So, I am thinking that after the Wednesday evening Tesla CC, some analysts review EM comments about retail investors.

Gee there are a lot of posts, like 6,000 plus posts at TMC so this gets offloaded to the admin assistant. Admin gets told to read all the posts and summarize for first thing Monday morning. Boom!

I was thinking the same thing. Analysts get dissed at the ER, go to this thread to get smart, see >6000 posts, give up immediately.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So, all this and not a thing has changed in the Tesla story, imagine when April rolls around, battery investor day goes down and we find out Tesla now has a battery that’s 25% more energy dense @ $80 bucks per KWH at the pack level with the machine to push out 2 terawatts per year by 2022.

That’s it....

Game over for fossil fuels, done.... it’s just done.

It’s gonna make days like this seem so small.

We remain... Long.

Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid!)

That is roughly what's going to happen, but take a tip from an SCTY investor......it's not that easy just because it pencils out physically and economically. Was looking at the AMZN chart this morning and I think TSLA ends up roughly the same way.

There was a widely held opinion here this past summer that TSLA was parallel to AMZN in 2015, and I think that holds. The world is not ready for the end of oil. Emotionally, intellectually, and certainly geopolitically. This transition won't be happening just because it's the only thing that makes sense. Aaaallllllll that vested interest must be overcome, and it's a lot. Literally most of the wealth faucet in today's world gets destroyed in your picture above.

Tesla is the only real carmaker in the world right now and the market has started to accept that. Getting to $200B in market cap on this automotive reality is achievable, but Elon could be 90% done building the necessary Gigafactories to power the world and popular sentiment would still be hesitant. That's just how we are.

2-3 more years til the Energy reality sets in. That's when we can look back at this as "just the beginning".

 

[mars_or_bust]

The expansion of AI hiring positions as announced by Elon is fantastic news, in more ways than one.

The obvious: FSD is HARD, harder than thought, but only Tesla is solving it in a fully frontal systematic manner. It may come late w.r.t. Elon time, but will definitely be before anybody else. The new hiring spree indicates that Tesla lead is even larger than I thought (make the lead 3 to 8 plus years). One can not of course compare Tesla FSD to the geofenced crap, with those silly 10 000 -30 000 Euro Lidars sticking out on top - those can never, even if fully functioning according to the seeked for specs, become mass market. Geofenced cars are a show stopper for a personal car, lidar adds a prohibitively high price and prohibitively lowers range due to high air drag - even if lidar gets to be solid state, the geofencing part really is a completely wrong approach.

The not so obvious, but potentially DRAMATICALLY increasing Tesla valuation: ROBOTS! Even humanoid, Asimov like robots! Fully functioning robots to nurse the elderly, to serve in homes (cook, clean, etc), to work in factories, ... ,... The market for this is in trillions (ignoring the military implications).

The reason Tesla could be the first company (say in 5 - 10 years) to crack this market is because of its R&D regarding AI in FSD. The software and hardware solutions that enables a car to safely drive in any, non geofenced, space is a crucial, not yet solved, component that allows future robots to interact with any environment - interact safely with humans, handle rooms, not break things, etc.

If this Tesla software and hardware is combined with some existing robot solutions, the sky could be the limit. I would not be surprised if the Tesla Israel R&D facililties takes an important role in this.

At the end of the day, such smart robots would be a very important part of the Mars colonisation project, making this development even more likely

So yes, I think ARK is too conservative in its bull case. Mine is 50 000 dollars within 20 years

Not an advice ;-)

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This is becoming a common anthem around TSLA lately. LOVE IT!

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

Can you explain it to a bigger idiot who's making big paper bank long but would like to use his knowledge of the company/stock to play options? Please.

Doing well with options requires much more knowledge and "feel" of market dynamics (a good understanding of likely market moves) than actual knowledge of the company. That said, almost anyone with bullish TSLA options made a killing over the last few months.

 

[madodel]

Watching CNBC blather on for many many minutes about Superbowl ads and Bezos defamation lawsuits with KARA SWISHER who has interviewed Elon/discussed Tesla dozens of times.

You'd think they would have an opportunity to drop in a mention TSLA up 11% to an all-time-high of $731 and market cap of $130B+. But NO MENTION OF TESLA.

I'm surprised Kara doesn't bring it up. "How come you don't talk about Tesla more?" They would have a 24-pack of eggs on their faces

They did mention billionaires and rockets, but no mention of Tesla until a few minutes ago when they interviewed Max Levchin and briefly mentioned his fellow Paypal founder Elon Musk's Tesla was up over $700.

 

[LoveTSLA]

To me 850 will hit My big goal . thinking of retirement now... Enjoy Folks!

BTW. I do not know what to do when it reaches 8500 as some suggested here.

 

[madodel]

So who here is getting ready to short TSLA on margin? There has to be a top around $1-2,000.00/shr.
Really not an advice.

 

[sundaymorning]

CNBC too busy promoting Victoria's Secret "in hell."

No mention of $TSLA shorts "in hell"?!? SMH

they’re waiting for a pullback so they can say it went to $735 and now on its way down.

 

[Huskyf]

Just 20 bilions more Market Cap and Elon go to is second virtual payement 150$ yes every 50B. Is going to be the richest man of the world !

 

[StealthP3D]

I was thinking the same thing. Analysts get dissed at the ER, go to this thread to get smart, see >6000 posts, give up immediately.

That is one benefit of having a high noise to signal ratio. It's better to NOT have most of the analysts on your side. I will probably sell shortly after almost all of the brokerage analysts are on board. That might happen in about 5 years.

 

[AquaMan]

Can you explain it to a bigger idiot who's making big paper bank long but would like to use his knowledge of the company/stock to play options? Please.

If you're asking me, then no joke, for real, I literally do NOT know what I'm doing. I'm new with options. If you want a real introduction to options, (enough to buy them and sell them at random but at least know which way you're betting and what the worst-case scenario looks like) then YouTube ain't bad, but try to watch the videos where the person who's uploading isn't hard-selling their services. (And not the TSLA-oriented ones from young fanboys.) A couple hours will make you knowledgeable enough to do what I've been doing.

I've been buying calls somewhat randomly, without knowing which are "a good deal right now" but observing the spread and assuming the current bid and ask reflect the market, preferring those with large open interest and a tight spread between bid and ask.

I've been preferring high strike prices and expiration in a couple months, and rolling them occasionally to a more distant expiration date or higher strike price as the stock price moves. By sheer luck (and belief in the company) so far it happens to be working.

You can choose to be aggressive or not. When the expiration is close it's more aggressive. When the strike price is high it's more aggressive. I'm basically a gambler. I like to see my balance bounce up and down and I seem to be able to sleep anyway. I was hoping to get calls with a strike price above $1,000 but they're not available with expiration so soon. I would have sold before expiration.

 

[wipster]

Oh what a beautiful morning
Hope for a beautiful day
I've a wonderful feeling
Tesla is winning today!