Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Aeon]

Since there seems to be a fascination with the Taycan's range here.

Porsche Taycan Turbo Crushes EPA Range Rating On Our 436-Mile Drive

Had we been driving in 70-degree temperatures and no rain the range would have been even better. Even with the cold weather and rain, we averaged 2.96 miles per kWh over the 436-mile trip. If you multiply that consumption rate by the 83.7 usable capacity the Taycan Turbo has, you come up with 248-miles of range per charge. That's not bad, and much better than the EPA range rating of 201 miles per charge. The car's remaining range estimator was a little more conservative and if you add the miles driven with the estimated remaining range you get a trip average of 235 miles per charge, still way better than EPA.

So why the huge discrepancy? I honestly don't know. I've driven pretty much all of the EVs available today, and I usually agree with the EPA range rating. EV range is a moving target; there are a lot of factors that influence how far any EV can go. We already talked about battery temperature and weather conditions like rain we experienced above. Topography is another. We did lose 1,000 ft of elevation from Atlanta to Daytona Beach so that was helpful, but not really enough to make that much of a difference over a 436-mile drive.

Also notable is the fact that the EPA provided the range figures themselves, and that's not how it usually happens. Many people don't realize that the manufacturer does the range testing and provides the EPA with the range rating and the data to back it up. The EPA has the choice to accept that data and publish it, or to then do their own internal testing. In the case of the Taycan, the EPA decided to do their own range certification, and those numbers came out much lower than what Porsche expected.

The EPA only does their own testing for about 10% - 15% of the EVs on the market today, the range figures for the remaining 85% - 90% were provided by the manufacturer. The EPA just doesn't have the resources to test every car, so they randomly pick some to test internally and the Taycan was chosen.

"What's curious is that Porsche says that these EPA numbers are merely confirmation of the numbers that the automaker itself submitted to the agency, as is typical practice. And Porsche spokesperson Calvin Kim said that Porsche is not "rebutting" the EPA numbers."

https://www.caranddriver.com/n…/porsche-taycan-ev-range/

 

[mikevbf]

I wouldn't go that far! We still don't know exactly how this will play out but the most likely scenario is that it will be similar to other virus scares that have come to the forefront. TSLA is growing so fast that a one week impact does have a lasting effect. It's just one negative in a sea of positives. Knowing how Elon thinks, he will figure out a way to take advantage of it (as much as possible).

Worth reposting @printf42 interesting take from saturday (brought to my attention by @Papafox fox channel) on how the virus could positively impact TSLA short to medium term:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Ipe]

Looks to me that shorty and/or MM's are taking the opportunity to walk it down a bit more than the macros when the dips are presented.

Ting! Ten more at $543 !

 

[mikevbf]

here are bullet points for those scanning quickly who might not follow the link:

• 2003 April at peak of SARS, personal car sales in China increased 12%-20%(depends on where you look). It’s mainly driven by people who were buying their first car to avoid taking public transportation. This could be a bit counter-intuitive to people who lives in countries where everyone have a car.

• Many 2003 April car sales were done by calling the dealers and wiring money instead of visiting show room. Guess which brand of car you can buy online now with your phone without worrying about dealers ripping you off?

• Also, many Beijing(and some other big city) families now have a good reason to buy a second car, so everyday they would have a car they can drive.

• This is before we consider shorter wait times for EV plates quota, and Tesla’s superior air filtration systems.

• No wonder Chinese imported Model 3 order delivery date is at Q3 now.(MIC at Q2)

• China in the following months will soak up any amount of Model 3 Tesla want to send. If not for Europe sales being more profitable because of credits, Tesla could send all Model 3 they have in Q1 to China, people would just buy them up.

 

[Nocturnal]

Do we have a pool regarding how much EPS winds up being?

 

[Rb48888]

Looks to me that shorty and/or MM's are taking the opportunity to walk it down a bit more than the macros when the dips are presented.

Agree. Picked up a couple of conservative LEAPS and a couple of lottos at this level. Probably more shenanigans to come, but if it continues down, I'll buy more.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Epic advancement in engineering science involving steel/metal castings. If this could be used in the Cybertruck unibody casting, it would be an incredible leap forward in auto manufacturing. Imagine the steel frame itself as a crumple zone. Not to mention reducing the weight of the vehicle. Science just gets better and better. Can you imagine Elon not being aware of this? "TSLA to the moon Alice!"

Now, back to our regularly scheduled fear mongering... meh.

Yes! Sokath! His eyes uncovered!

Cheers!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

here are bullet points for those scanning quickly who might not follow the link:

I don't know.

Seems like Tesla would have sold every single car made in China for at least the next year no matter what. So extra demand would primarily benefit anyone that have unused capacity. Which is actually the ICE companies whose demand in China have lagged for the last year or two.

 

[AquaMan]

There's no news to bring it down to this level. But then, there was no specific news to move it so close to $600 last week either.

I think it'll break $600 this week. (This from a guy who's been very very wrong in the past, but still.)

 

[LN1_Casey]

There's no news to bring it down to this level. But then, there was no specific news to move it so close to $600 last week either.

I think it'll break $600 this week. (This from a guy who's been very very wrong in the past, but still.)

With the ER report on Wednesday, that's a strong bet.

 

[Singuy]

A pretty new Ferrari was at the light next to me. Guess what, I saw panel gap inconsistencies. Noticable from 5 ft away. Now I am convinced that Tesla was scrutinized so much about panel gaps that they are blowing the competition away since it was a problem with ALL manufacturers, just that the shorts didn't talk about it with other cars.

 

[EVNow]

(PS those 02/21/2020 800C's are a hot ticket, at one point today they were down less than my LEAPS. over 9000 traded today! )

Wow - $30 for something one month and 30% away.

 

[ZachF]

There's no news to bring it down to this level. But then, there was no specific news to move it so close to $600 last week either.

I think it'll break $600 this week. (This from a guy who's been very very wrong in the past, but still.)

Coronavirus fears are bringing the whole market down.

 

[StealthP3D]

Worth reposting @printf42 interesting take from saturday (brought to my attention by @Papafox fox channel) on how the virus could positively impact TSLA short to medium term:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Yeah, but that's not the kind of advantage I was speaking of. Because that post only deals with how the Coronavirus could increase demand in China. Those who have been watching already understand there is no demand problem in China. The can already sell every car they can make. It really is all about the production and the cost of production (and I don't think Tesla would raise prices in China at this point in time).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seeing a little spurt of buying interest now. Leading the macros in a move up.

 

[AquaMan]

Coronavirus fears are bringing the whole market down.

Okay but TSLA follows the market like the price of water follows the recent rainfall.

 

[SunCatcher]

A pretty new Ferrari was at the light next to me. Guess what, I saw panel gap inconsistencies. Noticable from 5 ft away. Now I am convinced that Tesla was scrutinized so much about panel gaps that they are blowing the competition away since it was a problem with ALL manufacturers, just that the shorts didn't talk about it with other cars.

So then, when the light turned green you smoked him, right?

 

[mikevbf]

Yeah, but that's not the kind of advantage I was speaking of. Because that post only deals with how the Coronavirus could increase demand in China. Those who have been watching already understand there is no demand problem in China. The can already sell every car they can make. It really is all about the production and the cost of production (and I don't think Tesla would raise prices in China at this point in time).

Agreed. Might not this increase higher margin S and X sales in China because of the superior air filtration system?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Thanks for sharing.

With your chosen Feb. 21 expiration you pay more for time value than with e.g. Feb 7 (or even Jan. 31), even though the significant and potentially catalytic event is the ER, which is prior to Jan. 30.

Why February 21st expiry as opposed to sooner?

I hold call options with the same expiration. My reasoning was two-fold:

1. Liquidity. The 2/21 options are a monthly option that have higher volume and therefore you aren't overpaying due to wide bid-ask spreads.
2. It takes time for the market to digest even really good news.

 

[Nocturnal]

I hold call options with the same expiration. My reasoning was two-fold:

1. Liquidity. The 2/21 options are a monthly option that have higher volume and therefore you aren't overpaying due to wide bid-ask spreads.
2. It takes time for the market to digest even really good news.

That was my logic behind buying 2/21.