Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

I thought we'd end the week around $550, I just didn't think we'd clear $590 on the way!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Why do you assume conservatives want to spend money defending oil? I don't. And this has been the modus operandi of all past administrations going back 75 + years. I don't like it, but somehow the Saudis must have blackmail on EVERYONE.

Probably because the politicians that represent them keep advocating war.

Choose better spokespeople if you want others to think differently.

 

[humbaba]

well so much for "diversity" -- I think I'm going to get me some more $TSLA...

 

[wipster]

Awaiting more information, no public emergency announced today. Will reconvene tomorrow with more information.

Hmm, new Tesla model 3's start production in China and during the same month a new deadly flu virus emerges from China... coincidence?

Damn I have to stop watching Person of Interest reruns...

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, as I've mentioned here in the past, my fair value estimate for Tesla Auto alone is $600 currently. To be clear, I do not think Tesla Energy or Tesla Network are worthless, of course. I do not ignore them either. I simply see them both as dramatically more challenging to estimate revenues and earnings 5-6 years out with any considerable confidence as compared to Tesla Auto (Tesla Network being the more challenging of those two).

My $600 for Tesla Auto is based on a $1200 +/-$300 2026 fair value estimate.

My overall 2026 forecast for Tesla is $1200-2000, knowing that might be VERY conservative.

This means a couple of things...

1) I think it might be really helpful to start dedicated threads for Tesla Network 2025/30 (revenue, earnings, fair value), Tesla Energy 2025/30 (r, e, fv), and Tesla Auto 2025/30 (r, e, fv) so we can turn the considerable collective wisdom here towards trying to map out these developing pictures by comparing notes on forecasted assumptions, reasoning for those assumptions, and the earnings, etc., that those assumptions spit out.

2) I sold my first core shares today at $592.xx, 1% of my holdings. I'll let go of up to 6-7% in total if this move makes it to $630, and do this again from about $670-730 for another 7% or so. fwiw, If I was real young, and didn't almost 'certainly' already have as much money as I'm ever going to spend, I might not of let go of those shares. ie, circumstances vary, I'm not saying anybody should sell as much (or as little, if the shoe fits) as I did. What I would recommend is that you make buy/sell/hold decisions in relation to what you think the fair value of Tesla is based upon a forecast of future earnings several years out from now.

I never would have had anywhere near the TSLA gains I have without TMC, and the people here. All the best, regardless of varying perspectives!

Steve

update: bought back at $561.xx half of the 1% of core holdings I'd sold earlier today

some context... I'm about 87% Tesla, 13% cash now. I'd been as high as ~125% Tesla, negative cash in May of '19 from trading shares and a bunch of shares assigned that month from $420 puts I'd sold within hours of Elon's take private tweets in August 2018. trading shares and the shares from the puts were sold (at profits) in a number of steps from about $380 to $530, so the sale this morning was the first to dip into core shares (which I'd never done since building the position in 2012).

 

[Jayjs20]

The overall tax burden is high especially in places like California where, depending on your income, you can pay up to About 54% on short term gains. Even long-term gains can be total of up to 37% including Obama tax. I’d rather have that money sitting in Tesla with chance to grow then going to Uncle Sam.

I honestly don’t understand why people sell unless they are in a low tax bracket or think there will be a big drop the future.

Even if I knew the stock would drop $100, it would not make sense for me to sell.

You need a new accountant. I usually pay around 20% fed+state combined.

 

[M3Rider]

What do you know... we became spoiled these past few weeks. 600 was so close...

Well there's no manipulating ER. So, the day is coming.

I think if today's close marks $100B cap and the start of the countdown to Elon's payout, that's pretty good too.

 

[Unpilot]

I think our buyer woke up.

 

[AudubonB]

there have been many cautionary posts about thirdrowtesla (omar/stevejobsghost). Being a superfan on social media allows you a lot of leeway to be inaccurate with info. He means well, but I would take all of his forward looking claims very carefully.

While even Moderators haven't the ability to discuss sloppy language in posts, that video exists outside TMC and therefore is fair game. In that Omar's speech is so peppered with "Uh", "Y' know", and "like", any message he might have is debased - by a lot. One needn't be an Anthony Hopkins or John Houseman or John Gielgud or Laurence Olivier in order to be permitted a video blog....but Omar does himself a disservice by not taking diction lessons.

And that is my cute way of letting readers know that your own posts here are going to be better received if they're intelligible.

 

[Fact Checking]

is it true? and if so, which hedgefund, does anybody know?

Douglas Kass on Twitter

So:

"I just heard a hedge fund was taken out this morning because of a large $TSLA short. Another lesson learned."​

So maybe today's runup was partly the forced liquidation of that short position?

 

[CyberDutchie]

What do you know... we became spoiled these past few weeks. 600 was so close...

Could be that people are trying to time the peak of the short squeeze, and may have $600 as that peak level and want to lock their profits. I remember for example Jack Rickard was looking at this level in one of his videos.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

So:

"I just heard a hedge fund was taken out this morning because of a large $TSLA short. Another lesson learned."​

So maybe today's runup was partly the forced liquidation of that short position?

This would explain why it shot up to almost 600 and then deflated. The volatility of this run has been pretty crazy.

If there is a God, the large hedge fund is Kynikos and Chanos is finally out of the TSLA short game. We already know Einhorn and Greenlight are effectively out, who's left that is large besides Chanos?

 

[winfield100]

Do you have any advice for the new TSLA millionaires?

@Tim S
Watch Cathy Woods ARK invest videos.
Remember
$600/share is only 10% of the way to $6,000/share
Do you really need the money right now?
Remember, (weeps incoherently)
CSCO and MSFT both split 288:1
Multiply their stock prices to see actual price if you bought way back when AND didn’t freaking sell.
(~$14,000 and ~$47,000. /share)
(Oh well, it’s been a quite comfortable life though)
DONT tell anyone!!!

 

[MP3Mike]

If there is a God, the large hedge fund is Kynikos and Chanos is finally out of the TSLA short game. We already know Einhorn and Greenlight are effectively out, who's left that is large besides Chanos?

We have no idea because there is no requirement to report large short positions...

 

[LN1_Casey]

So:

"I just heard a hedge fund was taken out this morning because of a large $TSLA short. Another lesson learned."​

So maybe today's runup was partly the forced liquidation of that short position?

We'll probably be able to tell if this occurs when the short interest gets released. If there is a (sharp) drop, than likely someone was forced out.

 

[Dylan]

This would explain why it shot up to almost 600 and then deflated. The volatility of this run has been pretty crazy.

If there is a God, the large hedge fund is Kynikos and Chanos is finally out of the TSLA short game. We already know Einhorn and Greenlight are effectively out, who's left that is large besides Chanos?

FWIW They're referring to "a" hedge fund with a large tsla short, not a large hedge fund.

 

[liuping]

You need a new accountant. I usually pay around 20% fed+state combined.

If you file as "married filed jointly" and your joint income is over $488,851, Federal long term capital gain tax is 20%, plus 3.8% net investment tax under Obamacare and 9.30% for California income tax (or more if your joint income is higher than $590,746).

If you are paying 20% federal and California, you have to be in a much lower tax bracket, it does not matter who your accountant is.

 

[JustSaying]

They are called dies and die sets, not molds. Molds are what are used in making the castings and plastic parts. Different.

Yep, that's what my Berliner Tool and Die maker Grandfather would have call them.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Surprised no comment yet on this:

If the United States can't make a deal with the European Union, a 25% tariff will have to be imposed on the European car imports, US President Donald Trump told Fox Business News in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday.

The EU has more leverage than China. A quick tax on the digital economy in Europe would hit America harder than vehicle tariffs.

 

[Tslynk67]

CNBC doing its best to try to bring down the stock. They just had Craig Irwin from Roth Capital on talking down the stock - his price target is $249, and he is sticking to that price. I wish that CNBC would balance these bears with a bull. Not likely based on their historical bias against Tesla. Oh well.

Why would anyone pay any attention to an analyst with a target of $249? He clearly has no idea. The video wouldn't play properly, but I did catch that he's targeting 50k sales in China this year. Is he f***** stupid, or what? No, he's not stupid, he's paid to smear the stock in as convincing a way as possible.

He also said that most of the recent rise was retails buyers (which I struggle to believe) and that they'd abandon the stock quickly as soon as it starts to drop.