Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Well, there you go. There is no applicable "common knowledge" for Tesla. Since about 90% of all published articles about Tesla consist mostly of lies, and that's where "common knowledge" comes from, only truly foolish people rely on that. Evidence please, or assume it's false.


You just keep repeating garbage without evidence. Tesla never extrapolated anything. Various media sources reported incompletely or incorrectly on quotes from Shanghai Tesla managers, but those managers never extrapolated anything. Please stop it. Stick to facts. Go on, come up with a real source for this extrapolation nonsense. What the "markets heard" were media lies or misdirection, just like the media nonsense about cars being "assembled" rather than actually built in Shanghai. At least you're not spreading that idiocy here too.


I can imagine that you're "over this discussion", and I'm glad to hear it, because you keep posting incorrect information. Please stop it. There's nothing wrong with maintaining silence when you don't know what you're talking about.

On this forum we should adhere to a higher standard. We should be able to expect that what we read is true, or at least has a much higher chance of being true than something we read anywhere else (excepting Tesla's own published documents).

You’re not getting it are you? Ok, I agree that everyone of your opinion is gospel and the Bible. The end.

 

[woodisgood]

Rise into close anticipating a beat on P/D?

 

[Artful Dodger]

CNBC has the 'run-down' on former Nissan CEO Carlos Goshn | 4 vids via YouTube:

• Why Ghosn's escape from Japan puts the French government in an awkward position
  
• Interpol issues warrant for Carlos Ghosn for fleeing Japan
  
• Carlos Ghosn has a god complex: Former GM vice chairman Bob Lutz
  
• Carlos Ghosn: I alone arranged for my departure

Best of all, Elon tweeted this picture of Carlos mid-escape:

"No one suspected his disguise"​

Cheers!

 

[Remster32]

Interesting tables in JMP's TSLA note today. They're currently forecasting about ~530k vehicle deliveries in 2020. They note that consensus for 2020 vehicle deliveries look low.

Consensus estimates:

Consensus

Model S/X

Model 3

Model Y (Implied)

Total Vehicle Deliveries

[TD2] Q4 2019 [/TD2][TD2] FY 2019 [/TD2][TD2] FY 2020 [/TD2]
[TR] [TD2] 20,095 [/TD2][TD2] 67,379 [/TD2][TD2] 67,493 [/TD2]
[TR] [TD2] 85,528 [/TD2][TD2] 293,779 [/TD2][TD2] 373,741 [/TD2]
[TR] [TD2] 0 [/TD2][TD2] 0 [/TD2][TD2] 23,348 [/TD2]
[TR] [TD2] 105,623 [/TD2][TD2] 361,158 [/TD2][TD2] 464,582 [/TD2]
[/TR][/TR][/TR][/TR]

[TR][TR][TR][TR][TR]
JMP estimates:

JMP

Model S/X

Model 3

Model Y (Implied)

Total Vehicle Deliveries

[TD2] Q4 2019 [/TD2][TD2] FY 2019 [/TD2][TD2] FY 2020 [/TD2]
[TR] [TD2] 17,300 [/TD2][TD2] 64,596 [/TD2][TD2] 66,200 [/TD2]
[TR] [TD2] 88,000 [/TD2][TD2] 296,265 [/TD2][TD2] 430,000 [/TD2]
[TR] [TD2] 0 [/TD2][TD2] 0 [/TD2][TD2] 89,409 [/TD2]
[TR] [TD2] 105,300 [/TD2][TD2] 360,861 [/TD2][TD2] 529,350 [/TD2]
[/TR][/TR][/TR][/TR]

[TR][TR][TR][TR][TR]
Model Y estimates are the result of taking the remaining deliveries not accounted for by S/X/3.


Regarding Canaccord's note, they're expecting 368,965 units for 2019. Nothing else really interesting in the note.[/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr][/tr]

 

[PeterJA]

While I agree with your list of observations I am dismayed that you chose to quote me partially. Nothing that you say leads to monopoly although they absolutely act to confer market leadership.

Frank actually stated the premise in his introduction. The economic definition of monopoly is the issue. That was in one of my previous posts. By definition Tesla seeks more competition, not less and acts to encourage that through open access to patents among other things. Thus I take Elon's Master Planning at it's word. I shall then never expect that Tesla will seek or encourage any anti-competitive actions. He will absolutely do everything in his powewr to prosper.

OTOH, no such promise exists for SpaceX. There it seems evident he has minimal intention to share technological lead.

So let's call Frank's thesis "market dominance" in transportation -- little or no effective competition because of superior engineering, not unfair suppression of competition.

Whatever it's called, it would create a very high stock price.

 

[Fred42]

Not sure how quickly and not sure how much. But expect more contributions from Germany in Q1 (the new 6.000 Euro benefits will come into effect).

Has a starting date for Germany's incentives been announced?

 

[green48]

Tesla has saved $183 million of interest expenses since 2012 by asking for customer deposits at reveal events.

Genius move from the company that always needs more cash...

 

[sundaymorning]

How much will this cost VW?

Volkswagen, German consumer group in diesel settlement talks

The case was brought by the Federation of German Consumer Organizations on behalf of more than 400,000 diesel owners. It uses rules enacted in Germany in 2018 that allow a form of class-action suit.

...about $3 billion?

 

[Nocturnal]

First of all you can’t watch movies while driving a Tesla unless it’s on a cellphone or some such. That’s got nothing to do with Tesla.

Second, it’s in the best interest of you, me and everyone else in a car, on a road, not to fall asleep while driving. Also nothing to do with Tesla.

If you’re going to put that on Tesla, best you mosey on over to every other car forum and put it on those OEMs shoulders too. And don’t forget Waymo and all the rest.

Yeah, no crap. We all know you can't watch a movie on the screen while driving.

You can argue theory all you want, I like to live in reality where these actions have jeopardized the move to self driving and Tesla's share price. By your logic Tesla should disable the hands on wheel requirement too. I'm not the one putting these abuses on Tesla's shoulders, it's the media, politicians (like what's his name from MD) etc. that have done so.

 

[c041v]

Although their analyst are the same as others. To be fair, I have put some money for a while and they have successfully used it to make baby money every year for me.

I read this and pictured someone just rubbing twenty dollar bills together in a back room and waiting a few weeks for a five dollar bill to fall out of one. Could be days. Not really sure what the gestation cycle of a twenty dollar bill is... probably less than a fifty.

 

[printf42]

I don’t get this, sell the news usually means the actual news were short of the expectations.

But, how could the GF3 delivery news be disappointing to anyone? What were they expecting for the GF3 delivery? Surprise delivery of MIC model Y?

I call this a fake dip.

I have this habit of “rage buy” when I see a fake dip, it worked well most of the time, so far.
Thanks to shorts for their money, those are not down the drain, I got some!

Not an advice.

 

[mad474]

How much will this cost VW?

Volkswagen, German consumer group in diesel settlement talks

The case was brought by the Federation of German Consumer Organizations on behalf of more than 400,000 diesel owners. It uses rules enacted in Germany in 2018 that allow a form of class-action suit.

...about $3 billion?

You mean total severance payment for board members?

 

[Boomer19]

snippiness on a permabull forum, on the 1st day of trading of new year, as we retest yet another ATH, like the 8th in 2 weeks lol

...id hate to be a stand-up facing this crowd, sheesh

 

[PeterJA]

I suspect that Tesla and SpaceX will team up to launch a supersonic aircraft company.

SpaceX already plans this, sort of.

But aircraft design has a very long gestation period and it takes a very long time to ramp up manufacturing after that.

You are thinking by analogy, not first principles.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Cherry Wine]

snippiness on a permabull forum, on the 1st day of trading of new year, as we retest yet another ATH, like the 8th in 2 weeks lol

...id hate to be a stand-up facing this crowd, sheesh

The hedonic treadmill at work.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla says will start delivering China-made Model 3s to public on Jan. 7

Tesla is expected to start deliveries to the public at the Shanghai factory by January 7th. Here’s what we know:

Tesla executives also told reporters the plant had achieved a production target of 1,000 units per week, or around 280 cars a day, and that sales for the China-made sedan had so far been "very good".

So far, Tesla has stated its able to achieve 28 M3/hour at maximum output (if nothing goes wrong), on a 10 hour shift they can theoretically achieve 280 m3 on a perfect day with every employee working as efficiently on the 8th hour as they would on the 1st hour of production (this is a bit unrealistic). So from January 1st (the Chinese doesn’t celebrate Western new year, so I assume they worked on January 1st) to January 7th, theoretically Tesla should be able to produce 1,960 Model 3s.

My tampered expectations is that by the end of Q1 we’ll be producing 1,960 Model 3s a week consistently if we’re lucky. This is likely why Elon stated Q1 will likely be tough, achieving the theoretical output will be a Hail Mary. I think a likely scenario is that we get to sustained output of 1,000/week by end of 1st Q.

 

[Nocturnal]

Loving the slow rise again. Couple of 1/3 options might wind up green.

The hedonic treadmill at work.

It's probably more about lingering hangovers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Bangin' on $430 for last 7 minutes. Finally rejected (0.67 cents below)

 

[Nocturnal]

Such ridiculous headlines. Oh, so production hasn't started yet Barron's? Where did those cars that were delivered and will be delivered soon come from?

 

[aubreymcfato]

except it's a steganographically encoded attack vector with a decryption routine disguised as a comment in the PNG supposedly describing how the PNG was generated.

Gödel would be proud.