Mike Smith
Active Member
So what's going on with the Solar Roof V.3 reveal tomorrow Elon mentioned? I assume it will be a media / important investors only event?
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The recognition needs to be based on delivery.Going back to Tesla recognizing ~$30 million from autopilot/FSD with ~$500 million still deferred.
To those more knowledgeable with accounting: Is Tesla able to freely decide how much they want to recognize every quarter (within reasonable limits of not going beyond how much of FSD they have pushed out)? Or is Tesla recognizing an amount equal to how much they believe they have actually achieved towards releasing autopilot/FSD features?
I don't think that is the case, because they can't buy more TSLA once it goes past 10%. (But the new contributions go into their other holdings which would start to lower the percent of their portfolio that is TSLA.)
WSJ Coverage of Q3 They heavily steer the narrative towards falling sales and demand:
Tesla Delivers a Surprising Profit
Tesla Stock Charge Will Have Limited Range
- Electric car maker’s results spur 20% rise in stock price; new products pose threat to margins
- But even as Tesla gets closer to showing it can consistently produce large volumes of cars, it faces the prospect that market dynamics might be shifting as demand slows.
- Tesla faces the elimination next year of a federal tax credit to its customers, a change that analysts say could affect demand.
- What’s more, industry experts fear overall demand for new vehicles might be about to slump after a prolonged growth period. Demand in China and Europe already is showing signs of weakness and the appetite for new vehicles in the U.S. could be in jeopardy, analysts have said.
No mention of energy products or next month's pickup reveal (but did mention limited production of semi next year, new factory coming in Europe, model 3 trial production in China, and model Y ahead of schedule).
- Shares surge on surprise profit, but falling sales mean debate over long-run viability is far from finished
- The top line was far less impressive, however. Total sales of $6.3 billion were slightly below analyst expectations, despite the recognition of deferred revenue. More important, they fell 8% from a year earlier. That is Tesla’s first annual sales decline since 2012.
- That decline won’t trouble bulls, who point to a new factory in Shanghai and a coming new crossover vehicle known as the Model Y. Those bets are no sure thing, however. China’s auto market is showing increasing signs of stress, and Tesla already revealed the Model Y earlier this year to minimal enthusiasm
It's depends on how the buy side analysts at institutional funds assess TSLA's growth prospects. Net Income was $143 MM or annualized at $572 MM. With 179 MM shares outstanding and a share price of $305 that's a P/E of about 95 (worse for TTM.) Try computing a PEG ratio based on your earnings' growth projections.Is a new all time high next month in the cards after the stellar Earnings report?
I doubt there were any material leaks as Tesla runs a pretty tight ship (except when it comes to employee e-mails ). But I think it was obvious things were coming together on many fronts. I actually expected the cost savings to show up last quarter more strongly but I was anticipating them too soon. I would have been more vocal on my bullishness but the overall negativity here makes it easy to temper my speculation. Still, even the short-sellers had an inkling if you see the decline in short interest recently. I don't attribute any of this to material leaks.
Am I doing the math right that if this ~$50 move holds that it increases Elon's networth by ~$1.9 Billion?
In a (perhaps vain) effort to understand how all the analysts and models got it wrong, I did a quick compare (please advice if any errors) (all numbers in Millions):
Q2
-408 GAPP
back out one-time 117 restructuring and 41 other loss =
-250
Q3
143 GAPP
back out 85 other income, extra 23 for regulatory credits vs Q2, and 30 for smart summon deferred revenue* =
5
*Was there any other deferred revenue in Q3 (or even Q2)? Need an accurate comparison of differences in deferred revenue (w/ respect to FSD), if the the above is not accurate.
So roughly 255M *real* GAPP difference vs 551M *seeming* difference.
This real difference, based on the Q3 financials, appear to be attributed to improvements in gross profit (improved production efficiency, COGS, etc.) and improvements in operating expenses (SG&A, etc.). This seems very reasonable to me. *But* this approx 250M also can be within the level of fluctuations QoQ and YoY as Tesla grows. Expenses and efficiencies are not going to be smooth but rather uneven, especially as new products and new facilities (factories, sales and service centers, etc.) are introduced. Yes? Maybe we have a 250M GAPP loss in some future quarters? This is all very rough, and I understand Tesla is growing and continuously trying to improve. Trying to determine if one-time thing or improvements with lumpiness. Hopefully the latter and with less lumpiness. Just thinking out loud here...
Also, regulatory credits and deferred revenue are going to be a part of Tesla's financial landscape for the near future, with regulatory credits eventually (maybe years) disappearing and deferred revenue eventually moving to actual present revenue (as FSD nears completion). So these inputs will also fluctuate in the future.
The market for horses "is showing increasing signs of stress," so cars "are no sure thing."
"Tesla already revealed the Model Y earlier this year to minimal enthusiasm" from WSJ.
Do shorts have stricter margin call rules ? A lot of us survived 50% SP drop without margin calls.Especially with a stock like Tesla, margin callers will force sell/cover in a heartbeat.
I expect that a Model 3 in China will be sold at a cheaper price than a Model 3 in the US.
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If TSLA is 10% of holdings and they invest 10% of new contributions in TSLA, TSLA remains 10% of holdings.
Ah feel the same level of enthusiasm for the wsj and wapo.The market for horses "is showing increasing signs of stress," so cars "are no sure thing."
"Tesla already revealed the Model Y earlier this year to minimal enthusiasm" from WSJ.
The issue you fail to grasp is that the majors have huge amounts of capital, money and experience building lots and lots of cars. Tesla had to learn how to build EVs, now they are learning how to build mass market cars, something the majors have been doing for a long, long time.
But the real limitation Tesla is facing is they can only come out with one new model every year... if they are lucky. The majors can put into production half a dozen new cars each year if they want to. That's what GM is doing. Tesla will have maybe four or five models in 2022 while the majors will have that many each and more in the pipeline.
The real mass buyers will be swayed to buy EVs when nearly every automaker has them on the lot to test drive and kick tires. I used to think it would be the presence of chargers all over the place that would do the job. But I think it will be more important just to see EVs on the roads and in showrooms. People will figure out they can charge at home.
Apart from 85m other incomePosting here too (from the quarterly financials thread): Thoughts?
This is an interesting statement. I was wondering if a substantial covering before the ER (to the tune of at least 5-8M shares out of 40M), the number is more of a gut feeling than a fact, could be explained by someone leaking something.Still, even the short-sellers had an inkling if you see the decline in short interest recently. I don't attribute any of this to material leaks.
Tried to find a place in San Diego that serves bear meat for tomorrow. No luck.
Do shorts have stricter margin call rules ? A lot of us survived 50% SP drop without margin calls.
The Southerner in me wants so badly to kick the living *sugar* out of him right now!
I'll just have to be satisfied with the markets doing it.