Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Another point that some of the more enthusiastic bulls are failing to realize is about market psychology. When a customer buys a top of the line product, they expect it to be top of the line in almost every way (even if some of those aspects/features are not of actual practical use to that particular customer). For example, if I buy the top of the line iPhone, I expect to have the best camera and screen among iPhone models (even if i'm not really much of a camera person, for example). It's simply the fact that I'm paying top dollar, so I expect a superior product. I would not want my top of the line iPhone to have an inferior camera or screen than a cheaper iPhone model.

This same psychology applies to cars, and more so, since it is usually the second most expensive item people buy. People who buy the higher series BMWs or Mercedes expect it to be superior to the lower series in almost every way. Same thing for Tesla. But the differences @Zaxxon pointed out in his comment above make this claim problematic for S,X. Yes, it is superior in many ways but not in other non-trivial ways. So the reaction is: "if I'm not getting the best that Tesla has to offer, then I'm going to wait or get something else". Again, not everyone will have this reaction, but many will.

Again we are in general agreement here, a refresh is definitely needed especially for well informed Tesla buyers who already own a Tesla.

I don't think it is happening this year, and the main consideration is Tesla and Elon don't want a high profile public narrative to develop around the idea of a refresh, as then many more buyers will hold off.

We previously discussed resourcing that could be a big part of the issue, the other issues are perhaps things just take time or are sometimes dependent on other production ramps.

If people leasing a Model S/X have the car come off lease the sensible / practical thing to do is simply lease the latest model.

People who need to make a purchase soon, or are less intensely focused on Tesla are other potential buyers...

Model S/X in their current form are still way best than most ICE cars and better than competitor offerings. Compared to a Model 3 in detail on a "value for money"/""latest tech" basis it is harder to make that claim.

Most that don't buy a Model S/X now will wait or buy a Model 3.... Tesla want to give people fewer reasons to wait, they probably prefer someone to buy a Model 3 now. than a Mode S is 9 months time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Attention Mods. If there is still a thread for the top informative posts, I nominate this one, by ReflexFunds

Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

Send your nominations via 'Report' to the Mods.

 

[StealthP3D]

I still get lots of complements on my now 3 1/2 year old X. Seeing all the shoebox SUVs makes me appreciate the beauty and uniqueness of my X. All those other look alike SUVs are just cars eventually headed for the junk heap of history.

The Model X is the ugly duckling only when comparing it to the universe of other Teslas (which are much sleeker looking). When comparing it to the world of other SUV's and crossovers it's a beautiful princess.

That said, I just never liked the way SUV's looked or their driving dynamics. While the Model X does a lot to alleviate these concerns (for me) it's still kind of bulbous looking. And there is no way to hide that given its interior volume. And it would be much worse off if Tesla had made it boxy or tried to make it look masculine and aggressive. They did the best possible job while meeting the expectations of people who are accustomed to driving wheeled living rooms. Yes, it reminds me of a whale, but it's a cute whale.

 

[Zero CO2]

Looks like a strong finish today.

this is why i come to this thread ... not for
Model S/X bashing by fellow Tesla owners ... you folks are giving me buyers remorse ... just reading this today ... how about soem positive sentiment just in case some prospective MS/MX buyers are reading this

 

[BornToFly]

Sad day for me. I've been a Tesla Bull and supporter since I bought my first Model S in 2013. Since then I've invested half my retirement in the company, and purchased 6 Tesla vehicles. I've defended Tesla when people were critical of Tesla's customer service, and laughed at NADA when they said franchise dealerships protect customers. Well, I'm now on the bad end of a Tesla service issue. My order for my 6th Tesla, a Raven Model S with Ludicrous, kept getting delayed because of errors. Frustrated, I went to the store only to see the car I had ordered on the lot. I was told it was a new test drive vehicle. I eventually learned that the VIN had been assigned to me, but then somehow it ended up as a store vehicle, and I had been assigned a new VIN, which unfortunately had the wrong interior, so I was going to be delayed again. To avoid further delays, I agreed to take delivery of the test drive vehicle since it still had low miles (I was not given any discount because it had low miles). I noticed a few scratches and other things and sent the punch list to the Delivery specialist, who made notes and said it would be taken care of. I also noticed the right rear tire pressure was low on the drive home, but did not mention that in the first 24 hours because I assumed it was just inflated less than the other tires. I added air and thought it was fine. A week later, I had to add a little more air - not a lot, but some. Another week later, the same thing. At this point, I started thinking there must be a nail in the tire, even though the car had low miles, and with difficulty, found a well hidden nail deep in the tread. This obviously explains why the tire was low on the drive home - the car picked up a nail on the test drives before I purchased the car. This is the most logical explanation. Tesla is telling me that because of the location of the nail, the tire needs to be replaced, and I have to pay for it. I explained that the nail must have been there from the beginning because that tire was low when I drove home. But they say that since there was no mention of it immediately, they can't take my word for it. In other words, I, a physician who saves people for a living, and has spent over half a million dollars on Tesla vehicles, is potentially LYING about a nail in my $300 tire. Therefore, they can not replace it for free. This is in contrast to my experience with my local Porsche franchised dealer, who in 2012 replaced all the rotors and pads on my 6-month-old 911S that I had tracked 4 times and burned up the brakes, because they wanted to make sure I was a happy customer. My mind is BLOWN. I took this to the highest level at the Salt Lake Store, and got nowhere. I asked for a number for a supervisor in California, and I was told to send an email to customerescalations@Tesla. I will send the email, but holy cow am I disappointed and angry. If an electric Porsche 911 is ever made, you bet your a$$ I'm buying it if it doesn't suck.

P.S. - All this happened after I arrived at the airport on my day off to fly. First rule of aviation is don't fly if you are sick/distracted. There was no way I could climb into the cockpit and not think about all this, so I ended up having to just drive home. Thanks for ruining my day off as well.

 

[Fred42]

this is why i come to this thread ... not for
Model S/X bashing by fellow Tesla owners ... you folks are giving me buyers remorse ... just reading this today ... how about soem positive sentiment just in case some prospective MS/MX buyers are reading this

From my perspective the 3 vs. S and X discussion has been unhelpful and the subject is unresolvable. But the post you cited as worthwhile contained no insight or helpful information. People need to skim through the posts and identify the ones that are of interest or are helpful to them, which will vary by the individual.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla cannot afford expensive hw on consumer vehicles, so they collect billions of miles to compensate.

I believe this mischaracterizes Tesla approach. Indeed, Tesla DID experiment with high-resolution mapping and abandoned the idea. Every time the road changes, (or somebody discards and aluminum soda can on the side of the road where the radar will see it), the map needs to change.

That means the database changes need to be propagated to an every growing fleet. And it also means that 'noise' enters the system. Who monitors for the 'Wiley Coyote' effect? (ie: when sightings report things that are unphysical, or worse deliberate deceptions).

This is a nightmare of bad data, with no straightforward way to 'winnow out the chaff', except perhaps by building the very computer vision neural net that Tesla is creating now to look at those exceptions.

So why not just move the NN to function at the car in realtime? That is exactly what Elon has decided to do. More and more leading industry experts are beginning to see the wisdom of that approach.

Tesla is not collecting billions of miles. It is collecting layers of edge cases, and sorting them by frequency of occurence. Once enough examples of a particular type of pattern have been collected to train the neural net, the fleet moves to actively selecting and reporting events that match a new set of criteria via instructions from the AI team.

This last bit is important. This way, the FSD team at Tesla can actively select for, sample, and collect the data they require to solve the next self-driving challenge. In this way, they turn what would otherwise be an unmanagable, exponential deluge of data into a usable, linear progression of real-world examples which they can selectively incorporate into training the NN.

This is why Tesla's approach will succeed in delivering FSD, and why the 'Hi-Rez' mapping approach will fail.

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

In 2019, all $80k plus cars should be offering articulating LED headlights.

I can get those in a top spec Camry.

In 2019 all $80K plus cars should be offering motors that don't require messy oil and filter changes, regenerative braking, no brake dust on your nice clean wheels and a motor with enough torque that you don't need gear shifts - it should be smooth as glass at this price point. Also, you should be able to fill up at home and accelerate briskly to 60 mph in under 5 seconds. And the manufacturer should update your car periodically for free while it's sitting in front of your home with the latest features and capabilities.

I expect these things for $80K and up. Only Tesla offers them. What is wrong with the other manufacturers?

They are trying to pawn off technology from last century on unsuspecting and ignorant buyers.

 

[Unpilot]

Sad day for me. I've been a Tesla Bull and supporter since I bought my first Model S in 2013. Since then I've invested half my retirement in the company, and purchased 6 Tesla vehicles. I've defended Tesla when people were critical of Tesla's customer service, and laughed at NADA when they said franchise dealerships protect customers. Well, I'm now on the bad end of a Tesla service issue. My order for my 6th Tesla, a Raven Model S with Ludicrous, kept getting delayed because of errors. Frustrated, I went to the store only to see the car I had ordered on the lot. I was told it was a new test drive vehicle. I eventually learned that the VIN had been assigned to me, but then somehow it ended up as a store vehicle, and I had been assigned a new VIN, which unfortunately had the wrong interior, so I was going to be delayed again. To avoid further delays, I agreed to take delivery of the test drive vehicle since it still had low miles (I was not given any discount because it had low miles). I noticed a few scratches and other things and sent the punch list to the Delivery specialist, who made notes and said it would be taken care of. I also noticed the right rear tire pressure was low on the drive home, but did not mention that in the first 24 hours because I assumed it was just inflated less than the other tires. I added air and thought it was fine. A week later, I had to add a little more air - not a lot, but some. Another week later, the same thing. At this point, I started thinking there must be a nail in the tire, even though the car had low miles, and with difficulty, found a well hidden nail deep in the tread. This obviously explains why the tire was low on the drive home - the car picked up a nail on the test drives before I purchased the car. This is the most logical explanation. Tesla is telling me that because of the location of the nail, the tire needs to be replaced, and I have to pay for it. I explained that the nail must have been there from the beginning because that tire was low when I drove home. But they say that since there was no mention of it immediately, they can't take my word for it. In other words, I, a physician who saves people for a living, and has spent over half a million dollars on Tesla vehicles, is potentially LYING about a nail in my $300 tire. Therefore, they can not replace it for free. This is in contrast to my experience with my local Porsche franchised dealer, who in 2012 replaced all the rotors and pads on my 6-month-old 911S that I had tracked 4 times and burned up the brakes, because they wanted to make sure I was a happy customer. My mind is BLOWN. I took this to the highest level at the Salt Lake Store, and got nowhere. I asked for a number for a supervisor in California, and I was told to send an email to customerescalations@Tesla. I will send the email, but holy cow am I disappointed and angry. If an electric Porsche 911 is ever made, you bet your a$$ I'm buying it if it doesn't suck.

Wow I am truly sorry to read this. When a long term Tesla owner and obvious supporter has these kinds of issues it is hard to read about them.

I hope you get the resolution that you seek.

 

[Zero CO2]

From my perspective the 3 vs. S and X discussion has been unhelpful and the subject is unresolvable. But the post you cited as worthwhile contained no insight or helpful information. People need to skim through the posts and identify the ones that are of interest or are helpful to them, which will vary by the individual.

your advice is not really helpful either
I hope your trying your hand at humor

 

[dmckinstry]

Are you nuts? The Model S is an absolute classic on the exterior, very classy indeed. Yeah, the inside looks a bit dated now, but it's a beautiful car.
View attachment 439000

I still get comments how beautiful my 6+ year Model S, even although it's covered with dust.

 

[Antares Nebula]

The Model X is the ugly duckling only when comparing it to the universe of other Teslas (which are much sleeker looking). When comparing it to the world of other SUV's and crossovers it's a beautiful princess.

That said, I just never liked the way SUV's looked or their driving dynamics. While the Model X does a lot to alleviate these concerns (for me) it's still kind of bulbous looking. And there is no way to hide that given its interior volume. And it would be much worse off if Tesla had made it boxy or tried to make it look masculine and aggressive. They did the best possible job while meeting the expectations of people who are accustomed to driving wheeled living rooms. Yes, it reminds me of a whale, but it's a cute whale.

The aesthetics of the X, like the Y, is negatively affected by the choice to base it on a car platform, the S and 3 respectively. This was/is a common problem among many other brands also. It's a cost - aesthetic tradeoff. Do you save money and build it on an existing car platform, or do you spend more money and create a separate SUV platform?

The Lexus SR model was one of the first to design an SUV on its own platform. And it shows. It was a stunning success and sold like hotcakes.

Even Elon commented on this previously. He said that he didn't like doing the X on the S platform; that it felt like "shoehorning". And he was initially going to do the Y on its own platform. There was some back and forth on this within Tesla, and finally because of push back from the rest of the Tesla team, Elon yielded and just went with the car platform for the Y too.

But beauty is in the eye of the beholder. There appears to be mixed reactions, both praising and panning the X, Y looks.

 

[generalenthu]

Sad day for me. I've been a Tesla Bull and supporter since I bought my first Model S in 2013. Since then I've invested half my retirement in the company, and purchased 6 Tesla vehicles. I've defended Tesla when people were critical of Tesla's customer service, and laughed at NADA when they said franchise dealerships protect customers. Well, I'm now on the bad end of a Tesla service issue. My order for my 6th Tesla, a Raven Model S with Ludicrous, kept getting delayed because of errors. Frustrated, I went to the store only to see the car I had ordered on the lot. I was told it was a new test drive vehicle. I eventually learned that the VIN had been assigned to me, but then somehow it ended up as a store vehicle, and I had been assigned a new VIN, which unfortunately had the wrong interior, so I was going to be delayed again. To avoid further delays, I agreed to take delivery of the test drive vehicle since it still had low miles (I was not given any discount because it had low miles). I noticed a few scratches and other things and sent the punch list to the Delivery specialist, who made notes and said it would be taken care of. I also noticed the right rear tire pressure was low on the drive home, but did not mention that in the first 24 hours because I assumed it was just inflated less than the other tires. I added air and thought it was fine. A week later, I had to add a little more air - not a lot, but some. Another week later, the same thing. At this point, I started thinking there must be a nail in the tire, even though the car had low miles, and with difficulty, found a well hidden nail deep in the tread. This obviously explains why the tire was low on the drive home - the car picked up a nail on the test drives before I purchased the car. This is the most logical explanation. Tesla is telling me that because of the location of the nail, the tire needs to be replaced, and I have to pay for it. I explained that the nail must have been there from the beginning because that tire was low when I drove home. But they say that since there was no mention of it immediately, they can't take my word for it. In other words, I, a physician who saves people for a living, and has spent over half a million dollars on Tesla vehicles, is potentially LYING about a nail in my $300 tire. Therefore, they can not replace it for free. This is in contrast to my experience with my local Porsche franchised dealer, who in 2012 replaced all the rotors and pads on my 6-month-old 911S that I had tracked 4 times and burned up the brakes, because they wanted to make sure I was a happy customer. My mind is BLOWN. I took this to the highest level at the Salt Lake Store, and got nowhere. I asked for a number for a supervisor in California, and I was told to send an email to customerescalations@Tesla. I will send the email, but holy cow am I disappointed and angry. If an electric Porsche 911 is ever made, you bet your a$$ I'm buying it if it doesn't suck.

P.S. - All this happened after I arrived at the airport on my day off to fly. First rule of aviation is don't fly if you are sick/distracted. There was no way I could climb into the cockpit and not think about all this, so I ended up having to just drive home. Thanks for ruining my day off as well.

Really sorry to hear. Tesla needs to understand that S and X are differentiated products and learn to treat those customers better, like how Lexus does.

Tesla casually replaced my model 3 tire with a nail, when it was unrepairable, and charged me for a flat because they initially told me it could be fixed. I'd have paid if Tesla wanted. Another time, I damaged my radar when I tapped another car ahead of me (FCW went off, etc). Repaired under warranty.

So on one hand they don't even look like they are trying to save money. On the other hand they're trying to piss off the evangelists.

 

[KarenRei]

Anyone else here have their paint thickness measured? Just thinking about all of the paint FUD recently, due to Niedermeyer spreading that report from the Finnish guy who had his average paint thickness measured at 106 microns and the thinnest points just over 70 microns.

In response, someone in our Icelandic Facebook group responded that his ranged from 120-140.

This whole thing is such nonsense. They're spreading the notion that 150 microns is "normal" for a car, which simply isn't true. Normal is 67-198 microns. Some sources report an average somewhat higher - for example, here reports 120 microns average. But claiming that 150 is "normal" and anything less than that is bad is just not true. If your car is too far on the high end, that's actually a bad thing, as it's a sign that the car has probably been resprayed.

ED: Unrelated, but:

Two of this guy's friends applied for work with Tesla in Iceland and one got the job. He's being sent to the US for a 3 month course in September. That would imply that they won't be opening sales until New Years. Aaaargh

 

[BornToFly]

So on one hand they don't even look like they are trying to save money. On the other hand they're trying to piss off the evangelists.

I was literally one of the first Tesla owners in Salt Lake City. I showed it to all my doctor friends at the hospital, and neighbors near home. I gave a lot of test drives. Now the physician parking lot is full of Teslas, and I see them around my house. There is no question that I helped speed up the penetration of Tesla here, so to imply 6 years later that I could be lying about my tire leaking from the beginning is a giant stab in the back.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I was literally one of the first Tesla owners in Salt Lake City. I showed it to all my doctor friends at the hospital, and neighbors near home. I gave a lot of test drives. Now the physician parking lot is full of Teslas, and I see them around my house. There is no question that I helped speed up the penetration of Tesla here, so to imply 6 years later that I could be lying about my tire leaking from the beginning is a giant stab in the back.

I imagine the employees at the location in SLC have changed over the years, but is there anyone you know from previous purchases? Perhaps they can help.

It's ridiculous that even a first time S/X purchaser gets this treatment, much less one who has given repeated business to the company over the years. And they can easily verify that, I'm sure. I really hope this gets sorted out for you.

I have a few life events on the horizon that make purchasing an X unfeasible at this time, but I'm an owner of a 3 and I would hope there would be SOME sort of preferential treatment for being a repeat purchaser once I finally do make the purchase. Best of luck to you. Keep us updated.

 

[SO16]

I was literally one of the first Tesla owners in Salt Lake City. I showed it to all my doctor friends at the hospital, and neighbors near home. I gave a lot of test drives. Now the physician parking lot is full of Teslas, and I see them around my house. There is no question that I helped speed up the penetration of Tesla here, so to imply 6 years later that I could be lying about my tire leaking from the beginning is a giant stab in the back.

Well...for whatever it’s worth, we believe you. It is absolutely absurd for Tesla to ruin a wonderful relationship due to $300. Maybe you can talk to the right person to get this resolved.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I was literally one of the first Tesla owners in Salt Lake City. I showed it to all my doctor friends at the hospital, and neighbors near home. I gave a lot of test drives. Now the physician parking lot is full of Teslas, and I see them around my house. There is no question that I helped speed up the penetration of Tesla here, so to imply 6 years later that I could be lying about my tire leaking from the beginning is a giant stab in the back.

It’s not that Tesla thinks you’re lying, service centres are being turned into profit centres. I heard of a story of someone with a model X bringing in his car for a check 2 months after delivery since he’s been hearing a strange noise. Tesla they would have to charge him to diagnose the problem and if it’s a warranty issue he would be refund the fee. They really got this service thing backwards but it’s not the employees fault.

 

[dc_h]

Looks like that Koch brothers lobbying against renewable energy is getting some help from the WSJ. It is not surprisingly not paywalled. Any WSJ people who want to hit the comments, I'm sure they will be toxic. They make a lot of unsubstantiated claims about vast sums of energy and resources required to make wind, solar and batteries relative to resource requirements for oil. The tone of the article was very John Peterson, perhaps he has a pupil.
A google of Mark P Mills, shows he is a physicist with the Manhattan Institute. Manhattan Institute is a free market dedicated group, but seem focused on large corporate freedom, not competitive freedom. Saying you are dedicated to Oligopoly is not a compelling a mission statement though. Any science and stats people want to follow them on twitter, they could use some counterfacts.

Opinion | If You Want ‘Renewable Energy,’ Get Ready to Dig

I did a calculation off the top of my head. I thought a single windmill could power 1000 EV's a year. Each EV displaces about 500 gallons of gas, which is 6 lbs, so each car powered by a windmill displaces 3000 lbs of fuel or 1.5 tons. If a windmill powered 1000 EV's that is displacing 1500 tons of gas a year and possibly 3000 tons of crude. A quick google shows a modern offshore windmill can power 3300 homes, so my numbers were way to low. Each windmill can offsite closer to 5000 cars * 3000 lbs of fuel, or about 7500 TONS of gas, which would cut crude demand by more. No wonder wind is kicking coals dirty legacy ass!

 

[BornToFly]

Well...for whatever it’s worth, we believe you. It is absolutely absurd for Tesla to ruin a wonderful relationship due to $300. Maybe you can talk to the right person to get this resolved.

Yeah, it's not the $300+. It is the way they are doing business now. When I brought up my experience with Porsche, the reply I got was that a young Tesla can't compete with a 100 year old company and do what they do. I tried to explain that if you are selling $100,000+ cars, customer service is almost as important as the product, or they won't come back.

P.S. - They know this was my 6th purchase. There are 4 cars on my account at this moment.