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A little OT, but since its pre market thought I would ask about something I find curious.

Why is there a lack of interest amongst Tesla investors about the potential for Model 3 sales in Japan, the worlds 3rd largest economy?

Is it related to the nationalistic pride for home grown auto brands? The reason I ask is that the exact same thing was said about the iPhone (everyone said Japan will never embrace a non-Japanese cellphone maker). What eventuated was that iPhone actually achieved 50% penetration in Japan, one of its best markets.

It seems to me that Japan is a nation of informed consumers with good taste, it seems like that would lead to good sales for the model 3.
 
Why is there a lack of interest amongst Tesla investors about the potential for Model 3 sales in Japan, the worlds 3rd largest economy?

There's a couple of things I can think of:
  • Japan drives on the left, so they couldn't buy the Model 3 until very recently.
  • While it's indeed a large economy, car sales are comparatively lower, new car sales were ~5 million in 2018 - while the U.S. market is 16 million new vehicles per year and the European market is ~15 million new vehicles per year.
  • Japan also has a history of being rather protective of its auto sector and 80%+ of sales go to domestic brands.
So I think Japan is important, and could become a big early adopter of the Model 3 as you suggest, but addressable market is probably on the order of magnitude of say Germany, France or Great Britain.
 
A little OT, but since its pre market thought I would ask about something I find curious.

Why is there a lack of interest amongst Tesla investors about the potential for Model 3 sales in Japan, the worlds 3rd largest economy?

Is it related to the nationalistic pride for home grown auto brands? The reason I ask is that the exact same thing was said about the iPhone (everyone said Japan will never embrace a non-Japanese cellphone maker). What eventuated was that iPhone actually achieved 50% penetration in Japan, one of its best markets.

It seems to me that Japan is a nation of informed consumers with good taste, it seems like that would lead to good sales for the model 3.
Most companies' managers are short term oriented. The Japan market takes more time to open than the time in one job for a typical manager.

Off the map out of management habit.
 
A little OT, but since its pre market thought I would ask about something I find curious.

Why is there a lack of interest amongst Tesla investors about the potential for Model 3 sales in Japan, the worlds 3rd largest economy?

Is it related to the nationalistic pride for home grown auto brands? The reason I ask is that the exact same thing was said about the iPhone (everyone said Japan will never embrace a non-Japanese cellphone maker). What eventuated was that iPhone actually achieved 50% penetration in Japan, one of its best markets.

It seems to me that Japan is a nation of informed consumers with good taste, it seems like that would lead to good sales for the model 3.
Both Japan and Germany are (justifiably) proud of their domestic auto industries. It's very much nationalism. And they don't generally like buying filthy American cars.

Historically, American cars couldn't meet their emission standards anyways. This isn't a concern for Tesla but nationalism is.
 
Historically, American cars couldn't meet their emission standards anyways. This isn't a concern for Tesla but nationalism is.

Another big problem with American cars in Japan is size in particular: they are (way) too large, and they are also gas guzzlers, which is a problem in Japan that has $4+ gallon-equivent gas prices, which are comparable to European gasoline prices.

But the Model 3's form factor has been designed with Japan in mind I think:


... and the relative rarity of foreign brands in Japan could make it a very, very popular choice of a premium car. BMW and Mercedes are selling 60k-60k units there per year after all.

Another plus is the frugal minimalist interior of the Model 3, which IMHO matches Japanese cultural norms and expectations better than the typically rather Rococo German car interior.

I mean, what rhymes better with:

Daitokuji-Zuihoin-Zuihotei-M1827.jpg


This:

Luxury-Steering-Wheel.jpg

or this:

upload_2019-7-3_12-41-18.png
?

So I concur with @Thekiwi that Japan could be a positive surprise, and I'm very curious how Model 3 demand is going to evolve in Japan. Maybe @hiroshiy can offer some insight?
 

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There was an unintentionally hilarious moment in that CNBC segment. After Gene Munster had finished taking, one of the talking heads on the panel (Brian Kelly I think) attempted to bring up demand issue, but he literally stopped mid-sentence and said “I got nothing...someone else can take over”.

Will try and find clip

Here is the exact clip.

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

Must watch! @elonmusk @ValueAnalyst1 @tesla

Watch this CNBC clown trying to cook up some sugar about Tesla’s record delivery and then just simply gave up.

Oh the AGONY!

You can literally feel his agony.

Too funny to be true. Stay tuned to more "ClownShow" on @CNBC T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

And transcript

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

"Um... Gene, does it concern you though...
also...
when you think about
um...
just deliveries here...
um...
you know, actually, I gotta give up.
I’m sorry, why don’t you guys take this"

Cat must have got his tongue... what a clown
 
Can someone link this to EM,Tesla inner circle?(via Twitter)

View attachment 425919
Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon replied to the fake capitulation of the parody TeslaCharts account though. (Which parody account is hilarious btw.)

The TSLAQ TeslaCharts account is:

TeslaCharts @TeslaCharts
the parody account is:

TeslaCharts @TesIaCharts​

Note the homoglyphs: "l" (small L) vs. "I" (capital I).

Elon replied to the parody account.
 
One possible version of the simulation:

Elon will have the biggest face palm if legacy manufactures throw in the towel due to battery constraints, poor drive train design, and inability to be profitable with EVs. The company was designed to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy...it'll be a sad day if Tesla ends up having to do this alone. They may just do another round of freebie giveaway. If Tesla continue to dominate, selling 10-20x more than their nearest competitors then eventually there's really no point pursuing. Jag/LR is in deep financial trouble right now with the iPace yielding absolutely nothing in ROI.

So far not one legacy manufacture can sell enough of their EVs in a quarter than Tesla can sell in a week's time. Billions spent on engineering and tooling. Every main stream media and short seller helping their cause..and yet they have nothing to show for....

While good for the planet and citizens as a whole, this will be bad for my region and autoworkers in general:
Tesla has won.
They have the cars people want, the know how and equipment to build them, and the desire to do so. Even if other OEMs catch up on tech, they cannot catch up on price due to automation and existing fiscal responsibilities.
Elon's facepalm will be from them not moving soon enough, but he will achieve the master plan. Car sales being 50% EV (on the way to 100%) is a win, even if total sales are only 2.25x Tesla's output.

Overall, less cars being built is better for the environment also (assuming existing get retired before their emissions get bad)

It's immaterial whether a couple of old ICE companies with ~80% obsolete factories tied around their necks survive or not. Some might, the brands will probably survive too or will be bailed out as a matter of national pride, the rest is immaterial.

Capitalism is perfectly capable of replacing legacy gascar companies if they refuse to evolve. If they decide to stay stupid: good riddance.

Capitalism can't because there is no money in fighting Tesla. They are too far ahead of the price reduction curve. The best others can do is imitate and come in at a higher price point which is only relevant due to scarcity. And even then, only until Tesla adds another plant. (Other than non-Tesla body styles that fill unmet needs).

The best glide slope is national subsidies on EV and taxes on ICE to push people into buying non-Teslas now thus funding other OEM development programs. Even then, there will be industrial carnage. (Marco Capitalism perhaps?)
 
I have to say, that wishful thinking aside, I have a suspicion we may be about to see a pretty big bump in SP.
7% pre-market is nice, and no doubt the crazy bear idiots will do their best after open, but I can see a lot of people pilling in now that the whole 'no demand' BS is crushed with hard numbers (always the best way).
Plus never forget the many retail investors who don't read here, don't watch the SP every day. I got an email this morning from my UK broker which was fairly bullish on Tesla. This will be the first most people hear about the Q2 numbers. Most people cant trade pre-market, the full effect might take days or even weeks to play out.

I reckon we end today 8% up, and 10% up by friday, maybe even 20% up by the end of the month.
 
chuffed
/tʃʌft/

adjective INFORMAL•BRITISH
very pleased.
"I'm dead chuffed to have won"

It's hard when Tesla and Space-X sucked up the best engineers. BMW by the sound of it is about to throw in the towel.

I think it was Elon who not long ago mentioned something along the lines of the talent pool being limited. Can't recall if that was referring to EVs or autonomy - or both.

Why don't shorts realize the better play is with classic car companies? It'll be interesting to watch the reactions to the pickup - same old all over again, but compressed in time [is there any reason to think pickups are "safe" from disruption? I'm curious].

And then it won't be fun over in Detroit. I'm sure they have red teams furiously at work right this moment?