Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pras]

First post for this person. A little fishy. 30k of the 50k being just for Y seems unlikely.

But, it does raise the curiosity of how much of those 50k net new orders were for the Y.

Does it matter if the email also said that deliveries will likely beat the record?

 

[AlMc]

Elon has stepped back on his oversight of production ever since Jerome was promoted to President of Automotive.

This was confirmed when I talked with both of them at Autonomy Day.

It appears that Jerome is in charge of production, including Fremont, Reno/Sparks, and Shanghai. Elon has stepped back significantly in this regard and now views Jerome as kind of a COO since Elon doesn't need to worry about production. However, Jerome's not in charge of sales and service which apparently report directly to Elon.

It would be great to have Jerome in charge of sales and service as well.

I think it would be a lot of stability.

One of the few people I think could handle all of that. IF Jerome leaves the company in the near future (1-2 years) then I am out.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Just went through a topic over on the X forum regarding orders of the new Raven redesign. There has been a few confirmed deliveries now as of very recent, but still people one month in without any VINs or other status updates since ordering. I asked before on this thread and a couple folks here mentioned Tesla had a regulation hurdle or something, which has been apparently cleared. But, that doesn’t make sense if some are still without VINs one month in.

Any ideas?

Can’t make ‘em fast enough?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Good point. It could include the Semi and Roadster too huh? Maybe he even counted powerwalls and solar panels... and t-shirts and cargo mats.... hmmmmmm....

Probably included the Sweet and Sour Pork Elon ordered for dinner last week too. Oh and don't forget the pizza for the staff party in the paint shop. Come to think of it, did they clear those orders with the SEC?

Dan

 

[ZachShahan]

Oh, so, you already know what happened, but are not telling us here, so we can go and read on CleanTechnica?

Okay, I'm in. Will be watching for it

Whoops, sorry, no, the article is all about the question and my bewilderment.

 

[anon]

Just went through a topic over on the X forum regarding orders of the new Raven redesign. There has been a few confirmed deliveries now as of very recent, but still people one month in without any VINs or other status updates since ordering. I asked before on this thread and a couple folks here mentioned Tesla had a regulation hurdle or something, which has been apparently cleared. But, that doesn’t make sense if some are still without VINs one month in.

Any ideas?

Spacemanspliff saw international X coming out of the factory in early May - see Near-future quarterly financial projections

This makes sense - they probably needed to start international Raven production initially or else there wouldn't have been time to get any delivered by the end of the quarter. Today I saw on the X forum that someone was able to test drive a Raven X - so maybe now Tesla is prioritising getting Ravens to stores are test drive/showroom vehicles to try to increase S/X demand.

Having said that, I am concerned that there may have been production delays too, as it does seem to be taking a long time, but hopefully not too bad in light of Musk's leaked e-mail. I think I even saw a post from someone who has been waiting since late March (can't remember if it was S or X) - presumably he ordered a configuration that wasn't in inventory before they shut down old S/X production.

 

[K_Dizzle]

One of the few people I think could handle all of that. IF Jerome leaves the company in the near future (1-2 years) then I am out.

Where would he go?

 

[TradingInvest]

First post for this person. A little fishy. 30k of the 50k being just for Y seems unlikely.

But, it does raise the curiosity of how much of those 50k net new orders were for the Y.

If you read the whole email, they are talking about good chance of record quarterly delivery. They are pushing to raise Model 3 production from 900 a day to 1000 a day (7000 a week) so they could achieve the delivery. I would say demand is not a concern based on this email, most likely Model Y is treated as reservation so not even considered in the 50k number.

 

[Captkerosene]

First post for this person. A little fishy. 30k of the 50k being just for Y seems unlikely.

But, it does raise the curiosity of how much of those 50k net new orders were for the Y.

Veeeeery fishy. The guy reeks of troll.

I would have thought that they had way more than 30K Model Y orders during the quarter. Maybe the 50k net new orders means the backlog of cars in total increased by 50k.

The push to produce 1000k/day does seem to imply that demand is holding up. Otherwise, there wouldn't be any incentive to increase production.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Talking to people from the auto industry leaved the impression to me they live in a different world and to be honest I believe they really do. Its their own echo chamber where friends, family and colleagues talk the same talk and keep distance from BEVs and if they touch one its one of their own not really impressive and a use case just for the city.

I am not so confident that they people you had in the call beside the two ever have driven ever a Tesla as this does usually change everything if people are honest to themselves and if not its very hard to undermine that feeling that you had and can't forget creeping under your skin.

Good material for an article indeed. Maybe....

Auto dealerships are an ancient and deeply entrenched business. I know some that have been passed down from father to son. It is a lifestyle and a perceived entitlement. The idea that cars could be sold outside that environment is 1) almost unimaginable and 2) obviously inferior and doomed to failure.

 

[elasalle]

When was new Pana lines gonna come online so that battery capacity ( bottleneck in prior quarter) exceed the 23GWHr?
Was it June beginning or End? Could this issue have been resolved so that per todays email they have started doing ~ 900/day ?

 

[elasalle]

Auto dealerships are an ancient and deeply entrenched business. I know some that have been passed down from father to son. It is a lifestyle and a perceived entitlement. The idea that cars could be sold outside that environment is 1) almost unimaginable and 2) obviously inferior and doomed to failure.

How many generations in human evolution to figure out that dealerships are a ripoff?

 

[ZachShahan]

It would be great to have Jerome in charge of sales and service as well.

I think it would be a lot of stability.

Haha, he indicated quite clearly to us that was his least favorite role at the company. He won't be returning to that work, imho.

Though, it seems it was really about the sales part — he's not naturally a salesman is what I gathered he was inferring. He indicated he enjoyed working with owners and is still in touch with some of them.

But yeah, seems he is much more into the product development (especially Semi, his favorite project) and production stuff.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It's not just tech, it's manufacturing capacity and expertise. They just dropped half a billion on Rivian for just that, and they are small potatoes.

I would guess Ford’s Rivian investment is a hedge in case Tesla starts climbing the S-Curve and Ford decides they need to compete to survive. If that doesn’t happen, I’d guess Ford would consider it reasonable contingency and dump Rivian.

 

[Unpilot]

Question: does the 50k net new orders include the Model Y? If so, how many?
If 30K of the new orders were for the Y then demand for the M3 really is trailing off.

Look...another cute "care bear"

 

[wipster]

I totally agree, and as I said in a portion of my part, the issue of demand is frankly something nobody knows with any certainty. Even Elon has said they're really just guessing with the demand forecasts. No one knows how much customer love for these cars, word of mouth, the next phase of adopters feeling ready to jump in, the lower-cost Model 3 trims, Model 3 leasing, etc. Everyone is simply guessing, BUT — they inherently don't understand Tesla and can't see the demand forming (same case for 11+ years) and we inherently think Tesla demand will be strong indefinitely (well, perhaps with a little/medium lull in between the early adopters and the mass market phase).

They also don't seem to understand several core competitive advantages Tesla has that aren't going away in the next 3-5 years, if ever. So, again, they think Big Auto can swoop in and steal Tesla's demand. The Model X owner explained very well his point of view that that's not the case. I'd like to understand how their minds digested that.

Exactly Zach. Plus it seems everyone assumed that Tesla's future competition is going to be trouble-free from the start. However based on just the problems Mercedes has had with new lines they've introduced (like the M series), they will be far from that. I anticipate most having far more problems than even their ICE rigs while Tesla on the other hand will have over a decade of experience in building BEV's.

Honestly, based on what I've seen so far, I anticipate the Korean firms will present the most competition as they've proven to be fast learners and their current BEV's have been pretty well received. Also based on a post on this thread by webevdrivers, the Nissan Leaf, especially the new one, could also prove to be quite competitive. But none will be able to cross Tesla's biggest moat, the Supercharger network, for a long time.

 

[Prunesquallor]

How many generations in human evolution to figure out that dealerships are a ripoff?

For me, the first clue was the AutoNation/CarMax/Carvana, etc model that showed guaranteed price internet reservations worked. If there was anything worse than new car dealerships, it was old-style used car dealerships.

Edit: typos

 

[Driver Dave]

Finally, positive coverage from New York Times... Crossword. (Tuesday)

 

[BioSehnsucht]

And that item was seen by as many people as live in... Mobile, Alamaba (no offence). Like I stated yesterday: aren't we giving too much weight to CNBC's reporting? And aren't of lot of those (on average) 195,000 watchers using the channel as background noise?

It's not the direct views that matter. It's that something reported on CNBC, or BI, or whatever, then gets parroted elsewhere as a factual source with zero fact checking, and this continues until more and more people hear more and more distorted "facts" from "trustworthy" outlets. The lies and half-truths spread like a virus, because nobody can be bothered to do their job when covering such boring subjects.

While there's still good journalism occurring in a lot of places, it's mostly limited to political coverage or other in depth investigations, and not to financial / industrial related coverage.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Look...another cute "care bear"

And off to limbo.