Yes, this is all Trump’s fault. Every stock is near ATH but Tesla keeps dumping
Every vehicle manufacturer stock is near ATH?
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Yes, this is all Trump’s fault. Every stock is near ATH but Tesla keeps dumping
On the cloud/ lining side of things:
If Tesla is below everyone's price targets, does that mean they will soon be putting out buy ratings? Or instead lowering their targets further?
(Retorical, I don't want to know the answer)
Tesla's stock nears multi-year low as analyst again slashes price target
If you want to compare Tesla to auto stocks, then we should be looking at a price target of $50, shouldn’t we? Tesla isn’t an auto manufacturing stock, it’s a unique hybrid of auto and techEvery vehicle manufacturer stock is near ATH?
...and energy, and automation.If you want to compare Tesla to auto stocks, then we should be looking at a price target of $50, shouldn’t we? Tesla isn’t an auto manufacturing stock, it’s a unique hybrid of auto and tech
Yes, I totally agree. Journalists of all stripes took that as an attack on their work — in a time with Don the Con was attacking a core pillar of democracy to an unprecedented degree. (Very bad timing and Elon could have worded it much better if he was more aware of the broader political discussions, imho.)
If you want to compare Tesla to auto stocks, then we should be looking at a price target of $50, shouldn’t we? Tesla isn’t an auto manufacturing stock, it’s a unique hybrid of auto and tech
What crawled up Ives ass? His language is clearly intended to be market moving.“Code Red,” Dan Ives will not be accused of not knowing how to use alarmist language. His prior note was the one with the “one of the worst debacles [in over 20 years covering companies]” language re Q1 that fed so many headlines.
It’s as if key phrases in his recent posts have been hand crafted to fit in with the underlying falsehood messaging of the massive notTesla media blitz, ie, “Tesla and its products are toxic... don’t even think about owning the cars or the stock.”
ps the media campaign is not simply clickbait. Beyond the general experience of the past several years, there is one particular example that blows such an interpretation out of the water.
What crawled up Ives ass? His language is clearly intended to be market moving.
What makes one believe that is still in the cards?wait for longer term recovery
OT
Yes. My Sat night was ruined. I will forever wonder if the outcome would have been different if the other bloke, Bill Shorten, had had the courage to take a stand on Adani. Those with long memories know that Bob Hawke came to power because he took a stand to save the Franklin River. History was begging to be repeated.
Regardless of the outcome, we still have the #stopadani fight on our hands. Efforts will now be stepped up.
There was a consolation prize. Ex PM Tony Abbott lost his seat to pro climate action Zali Stegall. One less idiot in power.
You are kidding, right?
As to your points on investment:
- They have big corporate customers lined up and closely involved in product development. This is not like a consumer product, where you may focus-group the hell out of it, it is still quite a gamble to develop something that hundreds of thousands of costumers around the world should like. The Semi project is led by a tuck program veteran and is designed to the specification and as per the feedback of the limited number of customers you have in the industry.
- These customers have ordered a few thousand trucks (cumulative) for validation, but if the math checks out they will make big orders in the future.
- Related to the above, corporate customers have deep pockets and are much less short sighted and price sensitive to the initial investment than consumers. They lease the fleet and will not care if the truck itself costs e.g. 20% more if the monthly running costs (incl. lease, fuel, maintenance, downtime, etc) means they get a significant cost advantage vs. diesel over the operating life of the vehicles.
- That's not even considering future cost savings due to platooning and later FSD.
Statista shows US Class 8 truck sales were just under 250k last year. If Tesla only gets 10% of the market, that's $5Bn of revenue. However, if the numbers (cost savings) are as impressive in real life as they are on paper, this may become a SpaceX scenario in market share, with Tesla sales only limited by production capacity.
- They will not need to build production lines capable of 500k cars per year like Model 3, but can leverage any and all experience gained during that project.
- Many key parts (Drivetrain, battery cells, screens, FSD computer, etc.) will be borrowed from 3, driving investment cost and product cost down.
- The Megacharger build-out will be quite different from the Supercharger build-out. Again, for a consumer product used by millions of random people around the world, you need to build a grid that covers all the major areas as they will move randomly and also need the psychological security to know they could even if they never will. Your corporate customers on the other hand, will assign the trucks to specific routes they operate. Tesla would initially build chargers at their hubs, on-premise and, say, every 300 miles along the initial routes. This is much more targeted.
PS: In Europe, truck drivers are allowed to drive 9-10 hours a day, they also have to take 45 minutes of break after 4,5 hours. In the US they can drive up to 11 hours, but must have at least a 30 minute break by the 8th hour. 30-45 minutes should be enough for a Megacharger to get the battery to 70-80%.
What makes one believe that is still in the cards?
News nullification is much more successful than Tesla.
Tesla deserves to be valued like an automaker... an automaker growing at 50+% per year the past 7 years, and in extremely strong position to grow at ~25% per year for the next decade plus. Company is worth $500/share based on forecasting future earnings of core vehicle business... nil value for RoboTaxi potential included.
Valuation is about future expectations. Large investors don't see 50% growth going forward.Tesla deserves to be valued like an automaker... an automaker growing at 50+% per year the past 7 years, and in extremely strong position to grow at ~25% per year for the next decade plus. Company is worth $500/share based on forecasting future earnings of core vehicle business... nil value for RoboTaxi potential included.
How will profit per unit be huge? It needs serious investment and 1MWh of cells they don't have.Totally agree with all of this. Semi, IMO, is Tesla's most important vehicle right now. Profit per unit will be huge, plus decisions on purchase/lease from clients will be purely based on TCO - they will not be influenced by the FUD that might put off the general public.
Valuation is about future expectations. Large investors don't see 50% growth going forward.