Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maitri982]

Bought some today...hang in there everyone. Could go lower...I don't know. Gotta play the long game with this one as the forces controlling the short term are not predictable to us.

BTW...5 years ago May 12th the stock was at $191 per share according to Yahoo. About 17% higher now than than. Not great for sure, but not flat to underwater as some have posted here.

Just think about whats been done in those 5 years. And we are barely valued above what we were. Keep the basics in mind if you are considering buying.

 

[Krugerrand]

Mel Gibson Hold

• Chocochip
• May 13, 2019

Um...were is the buy meme? That’s what I’ll be doing.

 

[EVNow]

If TSLA is disconnected from Tesla

I don't think this is actually correct.

SP went down to $300 when the Q4/Q1 guidance was lowered, went down to $260 after bad Q1 delivery report and is now at $225 after bad Q1 ER.

Should it have gone down so much because of a bad quarter - probably not. But a bad quarter emboldens shorts and they sell more. Counterintuitively, shorting is highest now at $227, than it was at $350.

Better results in rest of the quarters this year + FSD feature complete will bring up SP. When NOA for city streets is released, I expect significant value assigned to FSD.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't think this is actually correct.

SP went down to $300 when the Q4/Q1 guidance was lowered, went down to $260 after bad Q1 delivery report and is now at $225 after bad Q1 ER.

Should it have gone down so much because of a bad quarter - probably not. But a bad quarter emboldens shorts and they sell more. Counterintuitively, shorting is highest now at $227, than it was at $350.

Better results in rest of the quarters this year + FSD feature complete will bring up SP. When NOA for city streets is released, I expect significant value assigned to FSD.

That makes me feel pretty optimistic. I think Tesla strategically piled on to Q1 in terms of negatives. If Q2 is flat or close to flat I hope for some SP relief.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I have about 1,000 shares outright owned, which I don't intend to sell for probably a decade, even if the stock drops another 50%. I also have some margin shares which would really start to get inconvenient if it did drop that low (I bought them very high)...but even so I'm likely to keep them as well.
Looking at what the company has achieved, and ignoring the SP for a minute, their success is staggering. Nobody even bothers to criticize the actual product any more, let alone the concept of EVs (both of which were regular points used to hammer the stock in the past). Tesla have totally won the 'EVs are cool' war and also the 'Tesla make amazing cars' war. The current goalposts have moved to 'nobody wants them' which is laughable given the sales of the model 3 (BTW the right hand drive version will be a big boost here), or 'they will go bankrupt' which has been a wrong prediction every day for a decade now...

Seriously, just hold your stock. If you do not, you will be kicking yourself in the the medium term, and throwing yourself under a self-driving tesla in the long term.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

oh... and another bit of pet analysis...
Uber and lyft are public now. No more hiding behind the sexy excitement of secret numbers. Once all those uber and lyft investors actually LOOK at how consistently they lose money, how they have completely failed to turn the margins positive with scale, and at how far behind they are in FSD... then those stocks will both crater. And when they do, thats a LOT of money from investors interested in cars, self-driving and tech/transportation looking for an investment home...

 

[EVNow]

That makes me feel pretty optimistic. I think Tesla strategically piled on to Q1 in terms of negatives. If Q2 is flat or close to flat I hope for some SP relief.

Flat as in, same delivery numbers as Q1 ? I don't think that would be good.

I hope it will be atleast 10k more i.e. 75k+.

I don't have a sense of where things are now - with half the quarter over - Model 3 inventory is low, so must be selling fine. Not sure about S+X, as the refreshed cars are not out yet. May be we'll see another frenzied delivery session in June. I don't think the wave is ending this quarter.

 

[hcdavis3]

I’m not sure how the battery shortage is affecting Tesla at this moment. People, from what I’ve read, have been taking delivery of inventory cars quite a bit lately. It would appear that the battery shortage is not a huge problem at the moment but might be in the near future. I appreciate your point.

And there’s this.

https://electrek.co/2019/05/13/tesla-model-y-production-battery-shortage-panasonic/

 

[DocZ]

What a nightmare. Sure hope the stock recovers soon. I was convinced we wouldn’t go below 235. We might dip below 200 soon.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

anyone else's local (200mile) New S and X inventory just plummet (again?) -- from 40 S this morning to 2. Just 1 X left from 5 earlier. 0 M3 left, again.
Also keep spotting M3s all over my lower-middle class town.

S is unchanged for me at 58, mostly 75D’s(!). Down to 1 M3 available again, now in Sacramento, almost 100 miles away.

 

[reddit_tl]

Ships with model 3s are just about arriving in Europe. In Norway there has been a steady delivery of between 30 and 60 cars every weekday. I don't think anybody knows where those cars are coming from. Either inventory from last quarter, which would be a lot of inventory, or they might receive a slow and steady delivery of cars on ships we don't know anything about.

Tesla Registration Stats (Norway)

Tesla Carriers

Thanks. S/X is not looking good indeed in Norway.

 

[Prime_Number]

oh... and another bit of pet analysis...
Uber and lyft are public now. No more hiding behind the sexy excitement of secret numbers. Once all those uber and lyft investors actually LOOK at how consistently they lose money, how they have completely failed to turn the margins positive with scale, and at how far behind they are in FSD... then those stocks will both crater. And when they do, thats a LOT of money from investors interested in cars, self-driving and tech/transportation looking for an investment home...

The only way I think they could buy themselves a couple of years is if Uber and Lyft were to merge (probably inevitable at some point) and sell convenience, as opposed to price with respect to traditional taxis.

 

[pnungesser]

Ships with model 3s are just about arriving in Europe. In Norway there has been a steady delivery of between 30 and 60 cars every weekday. I don't think anybody knows where those cars are coming from. Either inventory from last quarter, which would be a lot of inventory, or they might receive a slow and steady delivery of cars on ships we don't know anything about.

Tesla Registration Stats (Norway)

Tesla Carriers

As you attachment shows, the Morning Cornelia arrived in Europe several days ago. Doesn't explain all of the deliveries, but some cars from that ship may be reaching the delivery centers now.

 

[AMN]

Been busy for a while and haven't tracked all the posts here.

But do we have some estimates on the S/X sales and TM3 sales in this quarter? I read a few scattered reports that S/X is not looking good for Netherlands and Norway.

Tesla hasn't issued any VINs for the refreshed S/X and it has been 3 weeks since the announcement. We are also half way through Q2 at this point. If there are still no VINs 2 weeks from now, the Q2 guidance will be missed badly.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

The only way I think they could buy themselves a couple of years is if Uber and Lyft were to merge (probably inevitable at some point) and sell convenience, as opposed to price with respect to traditional taxis.

Even then, they are still losing money on every journey, with no end to that story in sight. Raising prices loses the business, and they have cut drivers costs to the bone. The ONLY way either survive is FSD, and there is zero evidence they can get there before tesla. Will shareholders endure losing another billion a quarter for 2 years based on wishful thinking? Where is the uber autonomy day, the uber FSD chip, the uber autopilot demo?

 

[izemize]

According to Ihor Dusaniwsky, short interest is up to 39.24M shares -- the highest it has been in a year and approaching the highest levels ever by share count (by percent of float it has been much higher, for example in late 2012/early 2013).

It's hardly surprising, because institutions who buy the convertible bonds ALWAYS hedge them with shorting the stock: Convertible Hedge

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Just got a notification about TSLA MXWL final offer consideration. Does that mean it’s basically done?
Tesla Announces Offer Consideration for Previously Announced Offer to Exchange Maxwell Technologies Common Stock for Tesla Common Stock | Tesla, Inc.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm calling all my Canadian friends! Looks like a $10K tax break for BC and Quebec (Canada's CA and NY?)
Wow!

The $5K EV incentive in Canada is a rebate. Canadians don't need to owe any Federal Income tax to receive the $5K EV rebate. You just need to be a Canadian resident (ie: be a Tax Filer, but not necessarily to owe any taxes to get the rebate).

And there's another $8K rebate in Quebec, which is more than the $5K offered in B.C.
But even in Alberta, EV buyers come out ahead because there is no provincial sales tax, just the 5% GST. On a $55K Model 3, GST would be $2,750 so still come out net ahead on taxes for EVs.

Other provinces charge HST (blended Fed+Prov. sales tax) which brings net taxes to slightly positive at time of purchase, but keep in mind the much higher fuel taxes paid by Canadians (avg 33% of fuel cost). So EVs are taxed much less everywhere in Canada.

Note its just the Model 3 SR+ that is eligible for the rebate, not Tesla's more expensive vehicles. But this bread'n'butter electric sedan will sell in huge numbers here in Canada. And save Canadians huge amounts of money, tax, and emissions. 3x FTW.

Finally, there is already a provision in Transport Canada's policy for a higher allowable base-price for 7-seat EVs. So a 7-seat Model Y with a MSRP of up to $60K CAD might also be eligible for the $5K rebate. I'll be having that when the time comes.

Cheers!

 

[NicoV]

Um...were is the buy meme? That’s what I’ll be doing.

 

[EVNow]

The only way I think they could buy themselves a couple of years is if Uber and Lyft were to merge (probably inevitable at some point) and sell convenience, as opposed to price with respect to traditional taxis.

They won't get regulatory approval for merging - unless they become small and irrelevant.

Yes, they have to increase price to atleast break even, be ok with losing some volume.