Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bdy0627]

When we predict Model 3 and Y demand, we have to consider which year and if FSD is achieved.

If FSD is NOT achieved, but getting pretty advanced, I think Model Y demand is likely to reach 1 million a year in 2022.

If FSD is achieved in 2024, I think the demand for 3 and Y in 2025 would be more than 10 million a year. Assume no better products on the market.

Good points. I think there is no question at all that FSD would change the demand massively. Is there any larger demand lever? Tesla will probably not be able to supply more than about 1M vehicles per year until another GF is built after Shanghai. That likely means a cap of about 1M vehicles per year until 2023. If they hit FSD by then, I would expect demand to be much higher than 1M. If FSD hits before Tesla can increase production over 1M, ASP per vehicle will go up a LOT from where it is now, but vehicle sales won't change much because they would be supply limited.

 

[ggr]

Mod: Software quality became UI quality begat audiophile stuff. Too off topic even for a weekend. Stop now. Take it to one of the many other threads. --ggr.

 

[lklundin]

So what other car can you plug in a USB drive to?

Fire Away!

My previous three cars each had SD-card slots - and would automatically offer to play any MP3 found on the connected storage device.

Whether Tesla (rationally) went for USB instead of SD for the physical interface really does not have anything to do with being able to automatically mount the device and offer to play back any media found on it.

 

[EVNow]

If I remember correctly, Tesla planned for 500k model 3 per year expecting ASP $42k and targeting 25% GM when at full production. It seems to me that even if the plan has to be modified some, it can still be more than ok. Let's say it's 400k at ASP $45k, 20% GM. That seems pretty realistic to me. Does anyone have a huge problem with those numbers? That should allow nearly $1B in gross profit, even with an average cost of about $36k per model 3. I'd be ok with that.

The first one results in a gross profit of $5.2B. The second one $3.6B. Obviously very different.

 

[lklundin]

Well, most of my music is in Amazon. Once the web browser plays sound, has tabs and remembers passwords it’ll be done. As it is now I play through the Amazon app on my phone. When it’s on the screen it will be perfect. Genres, playlists, buy music. Don’t like Amazon, use whatever web based subscription you have.

This is really a terribly, terribly closed mindset.

It is not an acceptable requirement that one has to incur a data download through a specific commercial provider to listen to whatever one wants to listen to.

 

[EVNow]

Reason is simple. Tariff war. Trump is not giving xi jipin any face at all. Such a meaningless thing in monetary terms to concede yet he is not willing to.

What exactly is Xi asking for - changes based on regulations rather than law ?

 

[VValleyEV]

I am logged into my tunein and can access my favorites. Have no explanation.

WTF. Thanks for this.

You are logged into Tunein in your car with your own private TuneIn account that you can login with your computer and smartphone? What car with what software release and what MCU etc?

Maybe I should try changing my password to something brain dead simple, perhaps I have a special character it doesn’t like. Current one includes upper/lower case, some numeric and a plus sign, and is 11 characters long.

 

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - today: Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle: 'It's outrageous'

In addition to the proposed outrageous annual flat annual registration fee for electric cars being unfair to retirees and other low mileage drivers, consideration has not been given that the added electricity costs for EV owners are taxed. Meanwhile the state incurs substantial expenses for emissions testing stations which EVs do not visit. Once EVs become ubiquitous, those stations can be closed.

For now the state needs to encourage a more rapid transition to EVs to greatly reduce air pollution and global warming. Other states still allow income tax credits to encourage the purchase of EVs. Illinois ended its similar program, and it needs to be revived.

The annual car registration fees should be based on mileage driven for each car. Modern cars including EVs provide over-the-air data including mileage to their manufacturers. This can be shared with the state. Meanwhile, the state records odometer readings during emissions tests. If that is considered insufficient, transponders can be attached to odometers as is done for tollway trips.

The proposed $1000 annual fee for EVs appears to be inspired by auto dealership groups that fund Sen. Sandoval’s campaigns. Dealers hope to stave off the adoption of EV’s because they are low maintenance, while dealers depend primarily upon parts and service for their profits. In particular they hope to damage EV maker Tesla due to its direct to consumer sales and service methods. The veiled motive for the proposed $1000 fee would be to choke off demand for EVs. That is contrary to the intent of the treasured American free competitive enterprise system. Would you not agree that is un-American?

Fellow Illinois residents please write your legislators, governor and local newspapers. I did.

 

[Krugerrand]

hmm, well it sounds like he’s more critical now than has been in past. i don’t recall him ever saying anything but canned responses in the few interviews i’ve read or seen. then again, if they were really that pissed, they wouldn’t have tipped their hand (unless their move had already been made, but just not filed publicly yet)

I don’t think he really gets it. Still trying to analyze the company and people involved in a very old fashion way.

 

[goinfraftw]

Off topic, but Happy Mother's Day, everyone!

 

[elasalle]

Twitter is full of rumors that Tesla abandoning Semi plan.
I can see them delaying production schedule till they have enough cell supply, they would want to prioritize M3 production for a while if they are confident of the RoboTaxi development.
But abandon the Semi doesn’t sound reasonable, anyone have more info?
(Intentionality not giving link to any such tweets)

With so many M3's on the road, goal post has to be moved right?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I love how 'funny' and 'disagree' basically exist for people with low analytical skills to express their emotional discomfort. If you sorted this forum by 'most disagrees' you'd get a surprisingly high number of posts that were accurate and insightful in the long run and just happened to violate dogma at the time.

And that's not hard, since the dogma here has been uber-bullish while reality has been that TSLA is one of the worst 5 year stock picks possible in this bull market.

Wait, so you’re telling me that the “Tesla Motors Club” forum has lots of people who really like the company and are more likely to disagree with people calling for some amount of imminent demise? Impossible!

In all seriousness, every once in a while someone complains about getting a bunch of “Disagree”s, as if that’s some kind of attack or curbing of their free speech. It’s people marking their opinion that they don’t agree with that post(or some segment of it). No need to be dramatic about it.

 

[EVNow]

To manage risk.

Manage what risk - how ?

Basically, if & when FSD starts working and Tesla can actually run a robotaxi service - every robotaxi is worth > $100k. So, why would they sell one for <$30k ? In the first year Tesla can completely recover the cost of the car after all expenses at $0.67 a mile (compared to over $3 a mile for taxis).

 

[dc_h]

Why duplicate the S/X line in China and Europe? Steady state world-wide demand for ultra-premium models is about 100K. Building new lines for old tech would be a waste of resources.

Better to put that capex toward Model 2, which will be a true world car. Bigger sales volume in China and in the EU than in the USA. And the Model 2 is unquestionably more important to the mission.

S/X are awesome cars, but they will NEVER move the world themselves; they are halo cars and do their role well as brand ambassadors. But the mission requires mass production in WW2-level NUMBERS.

This is why we go to China. Look for min 20K/wk combined 3-Y-2 from GF3/Shanghai (1M/yr). That, along with China's greening of their electrical grid, WILL move the needle. We all need this to get done. Fail in China, we all cook at 2C+ over pre-industrial temp.

So let's get'er done!
Cheers!

For China they should add batteries and FSD chipset in China. Why pay to import to USA and pay tariff and then pay a second tariff in China.
Wonder why not add fsd chip to all cars bring sent to China. If they’re charging 6000 for fsd they could reduce the tariff value of the car by 6000.

 

[EinSV]

Twitter is full of rumors that Tesla abandoning Semi plan.
I can see them delaying production schedule till they have enough cell supply, they would want to prioritize M3 production for a while if they are confident of the RoboTaxi development.
But abandon the Semi doesn’t sound reasonable, anyone have more info?
(Intentionality not giving link to any such tweets)

FUD.

From the Q1 conference call about two weeks ago:

Martin Viecha -- Senior Director of Investor Relations

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Jeffrey. When and where will the Tesla Semi production begin?

Jerome Guillen -- President of Automotive Division

This is Jerome. Next year we will start production. We're very happy. We're driving the trucks extensively with, I think, so far quite amazing success. Yeah.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q1 2019 Earnings Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

 

[Krugerrand]

Twitter is full of rumors that Tesla abandoning Semi plan.
I can see them delaying production schedule till they have enough cell supply, they would want to prioritize M3 production for a while if they are confident of the RoboTaxi development.
But abandon the Semi doesn’t sound reasonable, anyone have more info?
(Intentionality not giving link to any such tweets)

Was it a French guy on Twitter?

 

[Ad Astra]

I've been long since 2013 or so and added a little over the next couple years for a cost basis of $180. Immediately following the "funding secured" tweet I doubled my position and now cost basis is a little over $250. Dumb move on my part in retrospect, but doubt it'll matter in the end. Never sold a share because EVs are the future and Tesla is miles ahead of any competition.

My initial thesis was that Tesla was going to be a great investment simply by making a bunch of great electric cars at a big profit. Mission accomplished except for the big profit part- at least consistently. I initially told myself I'd sell the day Tesla bought their first TV ad. Self-driving wasn't really a blip on my eight exterior cameras.

It appears that producing, selling, and delivering electric cars profitably and sustainably is way harder than Elon thought. I still think, even if nobody were working on FSD, that Tesla would eventually rule the auto industry just on the strength of the great cars. It would take a while though- longer than I thought- and eventually other carmakers would catch up.

And whoever perfects FSD will upend the race for automotive industry leadership. If Tesla were to dominate all sectors of automotive sales today, they would be knocked off that short-lived throne by whoever perfects FSD. Elon recognizes this and has shifted resources to the FSD long game thus sacrificing near-term profits that would be easier minus the FSD investment. Almost everybody will be making EV's within a few years because of the war Elon started. He's fighting the next war already.

In my mind, Tesla just needs to keep the doors open until they win the FSD race. Easy to say, hard to do. This requires a bunch of stuff to be done at the same time, but these are the biggies:

1. Don't piss off customers. Service and reliability need to improve (seems to be already). Gotta keep the fanboy core happy. These are the best advertisers. Nothing else matters as long as people continue lusting after the cars.

2. Keep increasing production and chipping away at costs and figuring out deliveries. Tesla needs to maintain positive cash flow minus FSD because who knows how long regulatory approval will take. The recent raise will help with this.

3. Win the race to FSD.

Easy, huh?

I get frustrated with Elon at times, but can't think of any other human being I'd rather have my money behind. It'd be great to be safely green on TSLA but I think this is a couple years away. It's not just an EV war now. It's an EV AND FSD war.

We've bet on the only company leading at both.

This. I am reminded of my favorite Peter Thiel quote: “You should never bet against Elon.”

 

[VValleyEV]

In addition to the proposed outrageous annual flat annual registration fee for electric cars being unfair to retirees and other low mileage drivers, consideration has not been given that the added electricity costs for EV owners are taxed. Meanwhile the state incurs substantial expenses for emissions testing stations which EVs do not visit. Once EVs become ubiquitous, those stations can be closed.

For now the state needs to encourage a more rapid transition to EVs to greatly reduce air pollution and global warming. Other states still allow income tax credits to encourage the purchase of EVs. Illinois ended its similar program, and it needs to be revived.

The annual car registration fees should be based on mileage driven for each car. Modern cars including EVs provide over-the-air data including mileage to their manufacturers. This can be shared with the state. Meanwhile, the state records odometer readings during emissions tests. If that is considered insufficient, transponders can be attached to odometers as is done for tollway trips.

The proposed $1000 annual fee for EVs appears to be inspired by auto dealership groups that fund Sen. Sandoval’s campaigns. Dealers hope to stave off the adoption of EV’s because they are low maintenance, while dealers depend primarily upon parts and service for their profits. In particular they hope to damage EV maker Tesla due to its direct to consumer sales and service methods. The veiled motive for the proposed $1000 fee would be to choke off demand for EVs. That is contrary to the intent of the treasured American free competitive enterprise system. Would you not agree that is un-American?

Fellow Illinois residents please write your legislators, governor and local newspapers. I did.

SPOT ON.

Real solution is mileage-based charge, and this is absolutely a ludicrously obvious Dealership Mafia-inspired scam to save their butts for a little while, with false hopes that it will just make EVs go away.

I will forward this info to my Chicago friends. Even thought none have Teslas that I am aware of, I suspect all will be outraged. NOTE Rivian factory is in Illinois and CEO RJ has already commented.

 

[EVNow]

To manage risk.

Manage what risk - how ?

Basically, if & when FSD starts working and Tesla can actually run a robotaxi service - every robotaxi is worth > $100k. So, why would they sell one for <$30k ? In the first year Tesla can completely recover the cost of the car after all expenses at $0.67 a mile (compared to over $3 a mile for taxis).

To expand on this - using ARK worksheet - this is what I get.

Cost to consumer for SAV : $1/mile

Payback period : 4 years

IRR : 20%

Price of 250 mile range EV : $270,000

That's, right. Even if you pay $270k for the car, you still end up with an IRR of 20%. This is at $1/mile - which is 50% lower than Uber/Lyft rate of $2/mile, which is itself highly discounted compared to $3.47 taxi rate.

So, if Tesla wants to sell a real working robotaxi, they should charge $270k.

 

[Singuy]

Was going back and forth with someone on the self driving cars Reddit who absolutely think Tesla's FSD is demo is fake/staged (since the 2016 demo was equally impressive but it's vaporware).

Anyways, what people don't talk about is the amount of AP miles logged per day in regards to accidents. His argument is that waymo is so far ahead while Tesla AP crashes are common.

So people don't seem to realize the true scale of the amount of autonomous real miles put on a Tesla. Waymo had at least 12 accidents since inception till 2015. They have reached 10 million autonomous miles recently. In order for Tesla to match Waymos crash record, they will need to post 10 crashes/day since Tesla logs as many AP miles as waymo entire mile count in a single day.

And let's remember that Tesla drivers are not paid techs. They are a bunch of morons sleeping at the wheel or filming porn.