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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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As Tesla is seeking to raise capital and as Apple made a huge killing and now sitting on even more cash I want to bump and update my previous recommendation that Apple should invest in Tesla:


Tesla’s long term mission is to accelerate transition to electric cars. However Tesla today is so far ahead, in terms of production numbers, range and costs, that it is very hard to competitors to compete with Tesla without losing money. Apple can’t really enter a market half assed, the risk for Apple is that they release a car and once they start to manufacture it at scale it is worse than what Tesla is currently offering in terms of range, acceleration and price.

So maybe Apple will just give up the idea of making their own car.

What Apple could do instead is to integrate Tesla’s cars into the iOS ecosystem, provide A13x processors, iPad displays(heck just put an actual iPad into the car), modems and bring valueable knowhow in computer security, camera design and mass production. And to bankroll a more aggressive rollout of gigafactories.

The value of the ride sharing market is huge:
White Paper: Why Self-Driving Cars Could Change Everything

If Tesla&Apple manages to capture 50% of the market, that would be a $2T market cap in five years,

So how would they do it? Tim cook could offer to buy 50% of Musks 40M shares, let Musk have voting rights for these for 5 years(enough time for him to get them back from his bonus program), and in addition buy another 20M newly minted shares for $300 each to a cost of $12B, Apple would then have a 25% share of TSLA and get exclusive rights to integrate their iOS ecosystem in the Tesla vehicles. They would get a share of Tesla’s profits and also get a lot of hardware sales and iOS users etc. Tesla can make some Maxwell batteries for Apple’s product line and help Apple move more production to America. Tesla vehicles can even help Apple update Apple Maps with street view and Navigation.

To me this seems like a pretty good investment for Apple and there are a lot of synergies between the companies.
 
Regarding the CNBC interview of Chamath Palihapitiya with Wapner, I need to understand whether CNBC originally offered an online video including this portion of the interview or if they never published it at all and the video we see came from recording the TV version of the video. This is for a project I'm working on

Any help appreciated. Thanks!
 
Thank you! If the ships are typically 3000 cars, this would be ~12000 Model 3 sent overseas in April (slightly less since they had to send some S and X). If they're 2500 cars, it would be ~10,000 Model 3 (plus S & X). This matches up with my guess of either 50/50 or 45/55 splits.

Based on the photos (rough estimate) on twitter and the tesla carrier spreadsheet in Q2:
Morning Cornelia is on its way to Europe with about 4k cars. (ETA 5/10)
Glovis Captain is on its way to China with about 1.5k cars (ETA 05/07)
Grand Pace is on its way to China with about 1.5k cars (ETA 05/14)
Nocc Oceanic is currently at Pier 80 and being loaded with about 4k cars (ETA ? early june)

No other carrier has been queued for Pier 80 at this point, but this could change quickly. It will be very interesting to see the cargo ships in May especially compared to Q1. The cut off time for Q2 delivery is around June 1st for the EU, and June 10-12th for China.
There was one extra carrier that left in the beginning of April and headed to Japan (Glovis Sonic). I have no information about that carrier, because I started my research later.

I use this spreadsheet: Tesla Carriers and search for the twitter hashtag for photos and estimations.
 
Based on the photos (rough estimate) on twitter and the tesla carrier spreadsheet in Q2:
Morning Cornelia is on its way to Europe with about 4k cars. (ETA 5/10)
Glovis Captain is on its way to China with about 1.5k cars (ETA 05/07)
Grand Pace is on its way to China with about 1.5k cars (ETA 05/14)
Nocc Oceanic is currently at Pier 80 and being loaded with about 4k cars (ETA ? early june)

So the China ships are always smaller. Interesting. Something to do with fuel, maybe?

8k to Europe, 3k to China. Well, that's 11k, right in the middle of my estimates. But biased much more towards Europe than I was guessing (which does, in fact, make sense, but I did not expect it).
 
Elon maybe sure that Tesla has solved FSD, but he/Tesla still needs to convince the rest of the world about that.
IMHO, what they will release (eventually) as "feature completed FSD" will barely satisfy the SAE level 3 definition.
See this post for more details why I do not think they can even get to level 5 with the current hardware equipment even with any amount of software improvements.

BTW, Tesla is already more than 11 years behind to be first to achieve "human driver sleeping in the back" level full self driving:
;):D

Navigate on Autopilot today satisfies the SAE level 3 definition.
 
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I think you might missed the part of karpathy's presentation where they automate most of the labeling using proven capabilities of the nueral network combined with multiple information sources. Manual labeling is still there, but heavily repetitive labouring is avoided.

I watched all of it but maybe zoned out on that part or was seeing a man about horse. Thanks for the info.
 
So the China ships are always smaller. Interesting. Something to do with fuel, maybe?

8k to Europe, 3k to China. Well, that's 11k, right in the middle of my estimates. But biased much more towards Europe than I was guessing (which does, in fact, make sense, but I did not expect it).

China is closer, last time they sent more cars to China at the end of February and beginning of March. The estimates are more like the top of the ranges I found on twitter. So let's say, 10-11k cars are on their way to EU/China at this point.
 
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Regarding the CNBC interview of Chamath Palihapitiya with Wapner, I need to understand whether CNBC originally offered an online video including this portion of the interview or if they never published it at all and the video we see came from recording the TV version of the video. This is for a project I'm working on

Any help appreciated. Thanks!
Full video wasn’t published online. Not sure how u can prove this other than perhaps by looking at their app on iOS and perhaps there are some time stamps to videos uploaded
 
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Collecting the right data is not the easy part, it is exceptionally difficult. Tesla cars drive something like 0.5 million hours per day. Good luck hiring people to watch through that footage every day to annotate the interesting parts. You don't even know what the interesting parts are without a very strong system in place to identify self driving system's problems.

Yes, human annotation of the end result is still very important, but the vast majority of the data has already been filtered out before it gets uploaded and reviewed by humans.

I didn't say collecting the "right" data was the easy part. I said collecting data is. Don't change my words then argue with yourself over what I didn't say.
 
So just some thoughts I have after listening to the AMD conference call.

I am a huge AMD and TSLA investor, and the difference between the guidance is literally night and day.

AMD after Lisa Su being the CEO have been making ridiculous laser accurate guide. She will beat analyst estimate by 1cents in EPS and falls almost directly in the middle of her guide. She has been pinpoint accurate for the past 6 quarters with no surprises.

So AMD's current guide seems a little "high" according to analysts and they relentlessly questioned AMD on the call(at least 4 questions related to the guide). This is to show you how LITTLE trust analysts give Elon and his guides currently. Lisa has been laser accurate and still faces doubt and scrutiny while Elon is all over the freaken place especially with the production guide and Q1 guide. I feel it's going to take a lot of things to go right before confidence comes back. He should tone down his "aspirational" production numbers and release dates for the time being and stick to cold hard truths.

Absolutely long TSLA, but I 100% agree with the current sentiment and SP. Guess I'll just keep averaging down.....
 
Based on the rough EU / China estimated spill over, cargo ships and today's US data, my estimate is that Tesla sold around 27-29k cars in April (5-6k EU/China spill over from Q1, 12k deliveries in the US and about 10-11k on ships).

Delivering 90k in Q2 will be a stretch. May will be extremely interesting (both US numbers and ship loading on Pier 80). Just to hit 75k, they would need to pack 20k cars into ships by the end of May.
 
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So just some thoughts I have after listening to the AMD conference call.

I am a huge AMD and TSLA investor, and the difference between the guidance is literally night and day.

AMD after Lisa Su being the CEO have been making ridiculous laser accurate guide. She will beat analyst estimate by 1cents in EPS and falls almost directly in the middle of her guide. She has been pinpoint accurate for the past 6 quarters with no surprises.

So AMD's current guide seems a little "high" according to analysts and they relentlessly questioned AMD on the call(at least 4 questions related to the guide). This is to show you how LITTLE trust analysts give Elon and his guides currently. Lisa has been laser accurate and still faces doubt and scrutiny while Elon is all over the freaken place especially with the production guide and Q1 guide. I feel it's going to take a lot of things to go right before confidence comes back. He should tone down his "aspirational" production numbers and release dates for the time being and stick to cold hard truths.

Absolutely long TSLA, but I 100% agree with the current sentiment and SP. Guess I'll just keep averaging down.....

Agreed. Musk's pronouncements about 3000 per week production in Shanghai by end of this year, which was then scaled down to 1000 per week, will be used to beat Tesla down when they cannot make that number.

For anyone it should be apparent that even making any car this year is a HUGE achievement from dirt-to-cars in less than 12 months. But anything less than 1000 cars per week by end of this year will be portrayed as yet another failure.
 
Agreed. Musk's pronouncements about 3000 per week production in Shanghai by end of this year, which was then scaled down to 1000 per week, will be used to beat Tesla down when they cannot make that number.

For anyone it should be apparent that even making any car this year is a HUGE achievement from dirt-to-cars in less than 12 months. But anything less than 1000 cars per week by end of this year will be portrayed as yet another failure.
Well let’s not flush the toilet when no one is even in the bathroom yet
 
Regarding the CNBC interview of Chamath Palihapitiya with Wapner, I need to understand whether CNBC originally offered an online video including this portion of the interview or if they never published it at all and the video we see came from recording the TV version of the video. This is for a project I'm working on

Any help appreciated. Thanks!

This was posted on page 2480:

I believe this was recorded by somebody.

I had issue with google drive not wanting to download it.
I got around by
1) adding it to my drive;
2) making a copy in my drive
3) downloading the copy.