Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Just google "rights offering" or "rights issue". It's a way of raising capital specifically from existing shareholders. If it's non-underwritten, it cuts Wall Street banks out of the loop, though it doesn't guarantee how much money you'll raise.

OK, I Tweeted Ross, Cathie and Tasha: Lycanthrope on Twitter

Feel free to add comments/likes, tagging Elon, etc.

 

[Causalien]

So which one is more pain, the Muay Thai punch or the 52-week low?

The answer is Yes

 

[Artful Dodger]

We are all prisoners of witnesses to your misunderstandings.

FTFY. Cheers!

 

[Singer3000]

I think it was clear I was speaking about quarterly bleeding, but I admit I could have been more precise.



What's disingenuous is not mentioning that solar sales are on a steady decline and that the coming Q2 will not look like the previous Q2. For a taste what is coming, compare 2017Q2 and 2018Q2.

Well yes. It would be an odd thing if Tesla continues earning $380m in net cash every q2 forever from a $2bn stock purchase. Of all the things to legitimately criticise Tesla management for right now, the 2016 acquisition of SolarCity is a bizarre one to choose and makes me think you’re just stirring trouble.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I find quite a lot of stuff to brighten my mood regarding this stock right now. Here is my list:

1) Elon seems happy, not depressed. Always a good sign, and less danger of him losing it on twitter.
2) We are super-close to april registration stats, which I think will be pretty good
3) The competition is still absolutely ****ing nowhere
4) S/X range boost is welcome, and may tip some people over the edge to buying.
5) No bad news about SEC or the maxwell affair.
6) UK orders & even deliveries coming very soon.

I'm in the UK and can suggest that this will be a BIG market for the model 3 for the following reasons:
1) We haven't bought *any* yet, so expect a lot of high-end and high margin orders.
2) S & X are both popular here, this isn't rolling-coal land. people don't hate EVs here.
3) our roads are NARROW and our car parks TINY. My S is a BEAST and very inconvenient. lots of potential S buyers are waiting for a smaller version: The performance 3.
4) Our fuel prices are high, and our commutes short: perfect combination for EVs.
5) We are currently swept up in climate change concern. its on TV, protests blocking roads etc. green vehicles are with the zeitgeist right now.

I expect M3 sales in the UK to do very nicely. I have zero demand concerns. FFS they have spent $0 on advertising, and are even banned from selling in certain states, and the FUD from desperate competitors is staggering and yet still they sell every car they make...

Of course the stock market is as irrational as **** but I'm still super bullish. Knowing that HW3 is not only locked down, and in production but actually *SHIPPING IN CARS NOW* is just super icing.

Oh and I had 2 interactions with tesla support recently (one about a screen issue that they seemed very knowledgeable about, and another about my referral wheels) which were pretty on-the-ball and helpful. Thats a good sign.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This lady is going to be seen as a investment genius. They laugh now...let's see what they are saying in 3 years or so.

Check out @ARKInvest’s Tweet: ARK Invest on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

Bro, you need to live a little..lol

Maybe he already spend $200k on hookers and cocaine, you don't know!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Negative article on GF2, but it's not FUD: from what I know,
it's very much spot on.
Unfortunately Tesla is quite f**king up with TE (both solar and storage, although Powerpack and Powerwalls seem to be ramping up).
David Robinson: Tesla's solar business takes an ugly turn

 

[bhtooefr]

That depends on if you think the r/wallstreetbets types are good people to have holding your stock or not. I don't know anyone that uses Robinhood who doesn't also read that sub.

I use it and I don't read that sub, at least?

As far as the Model Y styling... it and the Model X are part of a class of crossovers, the "sport utility coupe", that the Germans have been pushing and that is doing quite well.

Other examples of SUCs:

BMW X6:

Mercedes GLE Coupe:

Porsche Cayenne Coupe:

Audi Q7 Coupe:

Lamborghini Urus:

The Model X and Y fit in pretty well with the X6 and GLE Coupe's rooflines, and manage to get a third row in there where the Germans don't (although one with tight headroom).

Mind you, it's a class that I usually detest (the Germans don't even get better fuel economy from their SUCs, so it's purely a stylistic decision that reduces the utility), but I'll give the X and Y a pass because they're getting good aero out of it. For that matter, I feel like the Y is somehow better proportioned than the 3 that it's based on. (I really don't like the proportions of the X, and the 3 is... not that bad, but not as well-proportioned as the S and Y.)

That said, while I haven't seen a Y in person, I suspect I'd go for the 3 over it (but by the time I'd be ready to buy, I would have seen a Y in person), despite wanting the hatch and thinking the Y's better proportioned - I don't want something Y-sized.

 

[SO16]

A note of caution when trusting Elon on anything related to FSD. Full FSD Robotaxi is minimum 3-4 years away. they can probably bridge the gap a little by requiring a licensed not drunk driver to watch AP, but full "go to sleep" FSD is years away.

At a certain point it goes from cute Elon Time to just overly confident/hubristic which hurts the business (see the decision to not raise capital when stock was 350+)

He just said “ready” in ~6 weeks. Not “released” or “available” in 6 weeks. But I can see where it would be misleading. He should have put the disclaimer about regulatory approval, etc.

 

[SO16]

Zhelko got burned badly because he believed in the 420 tweet and got in on margin. The subsequent flip flop by Elon caused him to lose big. He associates all the loss to Elon's flip flop and him trusting Elon got him to lose a lot of net worth. It is natural for someone to never trust a person again after such a traumatic event.

In real life, if someone borrow money from you but never return it, the normal response of most people is to distrust the person in the future and probably drop them as friends from now on. Now imagine someone doing that but alot of money to you. The response will be stronger.

Which is why I am surprised that TT007 is still a super bull and never said a bad thing about Elon because after today TT007's whole networth probably got wiped out.

I purchased shares based on the 420 tweet as well. Never on margin though. I wouldn’t be able to sleep. But the SP did get up high again in December. I can only fault myself for not selling then.

 

[saniflash]

Tesla cameras don't have necessary resolution to make HD streetview for google.

that can be fixed on the software side. There's neural networks that can do super resolution. Plus, as the car moves and the camera's position changes, you can collect more pixels and interpolate, to most likely generate very nice images. However I don't know what constraints there are on the hardware side (e.g. field of view, colors, etc.)

Which is why I am surprised that TT007 is still a super bull and never said a bad thing about Elon because after today TT007's whole networth probably got wiped out.

he did say some things on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

This lady is going to be seen as a investment genius. They laugh now...let's see what they are saying in 3 years or so.

Check out @ARKInvest’s Tweet: ARK Invest on Twitter

Good video. Decent questions from the (rather attractive, if I may be so bold) host and smart answers from Cathie.

 

[Boomer19]

Thanks. Very insightful. Will read more as you suggested. One layman question..


Technically market makers can keep a naked short position open on a rolling basis (settle one position but open another for next 13 days) without having to pay margin money or any fee?

reg sho is technically outdated

google rule 204 for (for cns fails) and b2b / stock loan buy-in rules

for the most part you can “naked short”, but mostly you have to be covered with a borrow - and in some cases, brokers make stocks non-shortable if they deem the stock is “hard to borrow” bc of liquidity or rates

 

[Tslynk67]

The judge pretty much already cleared Elon. The negotiation is non news. Anyone really expect this negotiation has Elon not being the CEO as a possible outcome? This is all they investors care about.

SEC already stated they were looking for increasing punitive fines, not changes to the C-list.

All I care about is the SEC going away, or even better, going after the crooks that are manipulating $TSLA on a daily basis.

 

[Pras]

Why can’t Tesla launch a car share app (like Turo) for now? I leave my car in the parking lot from 8-6. Someone can rent it. There could be hourly rental fee and if the car is not returned by 6... a much heavier hourly rate.

Beside the lack of strategic angle, they may be limited by the size of the software team.

 

[Pras]

I use it and I don't read that sub, at least?

As far as the Model Y styling... it and the Model X are part of a class of crossovers, the "sport utility coupe", that the Germans have been pushing and that is doing quite well.


Mind you, it's a class that I usually detest (the Germans don't even get better fuel economy from their SUCs, so it's purely a stylistic decision that reduces the utility), but I'll give the X and Y a pass because they're getting good aero out of it. For that matter, I feel like the Y is somehow better proportioned than the 3 that it's based on. (I really don't like the proportions of the X, and the 3 is... not that bad, but not as well-proportioned as the S and Y.)

.

On the look differentiation, if 3 and Y are not very different, this may incentivize potential 3 buyers to upsell to buy Y?

As long as the third row works, is usable, Y will be fine.

 

[Cloxxki]

Why can’t Tesla launch a car share app (like Turo) for now? I leave my car in the parking lot from 8-6. Someone can rent it. There could be hourly rental fee and if the car is not returned by 6... a much heavier hourly rate.

Beside the lack of strategic angle, they may be limited by the size of the software team.

In the Netherlands we have various such systems. You show up with a key card or open the car with your phone. There's a fuel card in the car. With Tesla it's all the easier. Considering how foolish even owners are, perhaps EAP should be switched up for people renting the car. And a kind of Valet Mode. But, why not? It could and should make renting out a desirable car ultra super duper easy. You can buy one in 2 minutes. How hard should it be to rent one?

 

[mongo]

Negative article on GF2, but it's not FUD: from what I know,
it's very much spot on.
Unfortunately Tesla is quite f**king up with TE (both solar and storage, although Powerpack and Powerwalls seem to be ramping up).
David Robinson: Tesla's solar business takes an ugly turn

I'm going to call FUD:

Not once since the fall of 2013 had Tesla – or SolarCity before it – installed less than 73 megawatts of solar generating capacity during a single quarter. In the first quarter of this year, it installed just 47 megawatts – less than a third of what it did during the same period just two years ago.

That puts Tesla on pace for less than 200 megawatts of solar installations this year,

Let's take what is shown to be an outlier in terms of output, then multiply it by 4 to get a yearly projection. Why not assume a continued 40% per quarter drop while he is at it? One point (or even two) does not a trend make.

But Tesla also is finding that solar energy doesn't simply sell itself. Since buying SolarCity in November 2016, Tesla gutted the solar business' sales staff. It dropped door-to-door sales, stopped selling through Home Depot stores and is pushing customers to make solar energy system purchases online as it shrinks its store network.

So, 2017 and 2018 were better that 2019, while they were cutting staff, that sounds more like it was selling itself. Targeting vehicle purchasers makes a lot of sense vs general public.

Put it together, and you get a solar energy business that is heading in the wrong direction at a time when it is just a year away from a $41.2 million state penalty if it fails to meet the next job target at the Buffalo factory

Put what together? One bad quartersl? As to the penalty fear, the article linked in that section (written April 10th) says:

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo would slap Tesla Inc. with a $41.2 million penalty if the company doesn't meet its job creation promises at its solar panel factory in Buffalo by next April.

But the governor said Wednesday that he has seen no indication Tesla will miss its next benchmark.

"They're ahead of schedule," Cuomo said during a stop in Buffalo to promote the state's budget deal.

Lead with fear, follow with fact that contradicts the fear...
It's not even a pure penalty, its a claw back:

"The way we structured this transaction, it's not a goal, and it's nice if you make it. ... It's a benchmark. If you don't make it, you pay us back," Cuomo said. "Right now, they're ahead of their goal."

Addendum: 41 million into 700 jobs is 60k/worker. If Tesla can hit their production without increasing the workforce, it is a net gain overall. If they are only a few workers short, that would be bad.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Running day to day business is actually the COO's (Gwynne Shotwell's) role:

Chief operating officer - Wikipedia

"The chief operating officer (COO), also called the chief operations officer, is one of the highest-ranking executive positions in an organization, comprising part of the "C-Suite". The COO is responsible for the daily operation of the company,[1] and routinely reports to the highest-ranking executive, usually the chief executive officer (CEO).[2]"​

A CEO's primary role on the other hand is to lead and be visionary, among other things:

Chief executive officer - Wikipedia

"Typically, responsibilities include being a decision maker on strategy and other key policy issues, leader, manager, and executor. The communicator role can involve speaking to the press and the rest of the outside world, as well as to the organization's management and employees; the decision-making role involves high-level decisions about policy and strategy."​

The whole purpose of a COO is to offload the day-to-day management responsibilities from a CEO.

To suggest that Elon isn't the CEO of SpaceX is false, disingenuous, intellectually dishonest and bordering on a lie.

Thanks for correcting my post.

Mixed those two roles up. My apologies. Shouldn't be posting during a meeting (or according to some of you, at all), haha.