Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

We don't know yet.

I would love to know the answer to that. That is the gift that keeps on giving, so understanding the 2019 magnitude/spread might give some insight into future years.

 

[ZeApelido]

I actually have some footage at night in torrential rain when even human traffic slowed down to like 40mph where they normally go 80. I've just been to lazy to process it. Perhaps one of those days.

AP was not engaging for some time, but once it did - it did a good enoug hjob of staying in lane and mostly not doing anything stupid (once tried to dive for an exit, otherwise mostly unremarkable).

So are you gonna take the job Elon offered you?!

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Tesla Registration Stats

If Norway is any guide, it took about 8 -10 days to deliver the vehicles in transit at the end of Q1. More concerning is that, with only one week left in April of the 749 cars registered this month, only 75 are Model S &X (combined). That compares with 720 registered in April 2018. It's hard to draw any conclusions as to Model 3 demand in light of the cut-of in shipments, but that can't explain the abysmal S&X sales. I'll be very interested to see if they beak out margins by model in the ER. If there are deep discounts being offered on S&X, that will just make matters worse.

(Please don't) Fire Away

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Elon is calling out Fred on Twitter. Oh boy, what a shitshow.

 

[dakh]

I don't know if that's going to be a substantial demand lever, it's clear to me that this presentation was both for investors and to create a FOMO effect so people order their FSD M3's now, before prices go up on it. Personally, I canceled my M3 reservation and put a ModelY order. So this FOMO thing worked on me. This locks my FSD price in, and gives me a car that I was actually waiting for, white seats, AWD, long range and all.

 

[Alphacrux]

Metastability issues in synchonous SRAM? I thought the delays were needed due to address decode/ propagation.

He might have been talking about the old asynchronous kind.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Tesla Registration Stats

If Norway is any guide, it took about 8 -10 days to deliver the vehicles in transit at the end of Q1. More concerning is that, with only one week left in April of the 749 cars registered this month, only 75 are Model S &X (combined). That compares with 720 registered in April 2018. It's hard to draw any conclusions as to Model 3 demand in light of the cut-of in shipments, but that can't explain the abysmal S&X sales. I'll be very interested to see if they beak out margins by model in the ER. If there are deep discounts being offered on S&X, that will just make matters worse.

(Please don't) Fire Away

All this FSD *sugar* is fine and all but that’s multiple years away. S&X refresh is seriously needed soon if Tesla wants any hope at hitting even the low end of their annual target for deliveries.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Well, I guess they're sort of doctors. But not like doctors who see patients. I've never met a radiologist for a doctor's appointment, have you?

Perhaps it’s time for you to take a break. You must be exhausted.

What Is a Radiologist? | American College of Radiology

Radiologists are medical doctors that specialize in diagnosing and treating injuries and diseases using medical imaging (radiology) procedures (exams/tests) such as X-rays, computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), nuclear medicine, positron emission tomography (PET) and ultrasound.

Radiologists complete at least 13 years of training, including medical school, a four-year residency, and most often, an additional one- or two-year fellowship of very specialized training, such as radiation oncology, pediatric radiology, or interventional radiology.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm not up for trying to dig up a citation, but if memory serves what I'm talking about was using the then-popular term, "expert system" which was better at ranking diagnoses. Years (decades? I lose track) ago this was done, but the medical profession is a bit too... defensive... to accept the use of diagnostic aids.

Well, I'm not that close to health care anymore, but to caveat I wouldn't be surprised if this hasn't filtered up in some fashion that is less direct than the doctor-omniscience threatening computer diagnosis simply because of how long ago what I'm talking about referred to. But I have had doctors who plainly just googled the symptoms. Oh, I'm sorry, looked it up on webmd. Sigh. (how do I know, because they said. And I wondered what I was paying them for...)

In other words, this is exactly the right approach. Funny how it parallels driver assistance

OT!
I haven't heard "Expert Systems" since the 90's as a part of KM or Knowledge Management. Problem then was that Factory Techs kept knowledge to themselves b/c sharing would make them less valuable... job security. Other thing was getting them to input the data required force or system pausing until an entry was made. So they just put in garbage. Train repair was the only successful implementation (that I knew of at the time) because the technology never changed, and error was dangerous. So eventually the system became useful... like after 10 years.
Wow have things changed. And 10 years? Forget it! We need utility in 2.

 

[aubreymcfato]

(OK, "some math/CS background" may be an understatement. I only have a bachelor's degree in math, but both my parents are math professors and I've studied all kinds of random math and CS stuff extracurricularly, so I actually have absorbed an awful lot of stuff from the "atmosphere" around me.)

OT

That's funny. I too have a bachelor's degree in math, but I don't remember anything, it wasn't for me. I actually ended up studying library science: I'm much better with books than numbers.
Math gives you tools for "making order in abstract spaces" that are useful everywhere, though (fun fact: arguably, the best librarian of the XXth century, S. R. Ranganathan, was a former mathematician).

 

[generalenthu]

As a generalist, you need to have a couple simple questions in mind: if I summon a car to get me places, and there's a car in the fleet nearby, will it be able to get to me? Will it take me where I need to go? My vacuum cleaner kicks off at 1pm every day. It got a lot of space to deal with, pretty complicated too. Yeah it gets stuck here and there, so maybe twice a month I have to pull it from somewhere and take it to its charging base. Would I go back to hiring someone to clean the place just because it fails ~7% of the time? Hell no, this is good enough and I'm sure in the 3 years since I got this vac, they came up with something that would only fail 1% of the time, once a quarter maybe. Same here, as long as these FSD cars aren't presenting a safety hazard, even if they're not perfect the added safety and economic value is so overwhelming that dealing with a few glitches here and there is going to be well worth it.



They did, actually. Humans suck at changing lanes in traffic. They could have spent enormous amounts of time developing traditional imperative software to make lane changes. Instead they are training a predictor that takes in gobs of real-life lane change examples, successful and not, and once trained will be capable of reliably calling a lane change to the "driving policy" layer as you call it to execute on it. You can also set the confidence level from the predictive layer with which you want the policy layer to act on a lane change.

Was about to say something similar. First point is robotaxis DO NOT need level 5 capabilities. I'd argue they don't even need level 4 (no human backup, but limited operational environment).

A good level 3 system that knows to avoid pedestrians and cyclists really really well is all that is needed for robo taxis. I don't care if they get into the occasional fender bender.

Now if the car gets stuck, it is always possible for a remote driver to take over. Tesla's cars have the needed hardware to send telemetry back if they get stuck and let a remote human take over.

Now @neroden riddle me this. When Tesla releases feature complete FSD, and iterates it to prove that

1. 50% of the trips demanded in an urban area can be driven on FSD
2. with a 99% or more probability of no disengagement
3. Has cell signal coverage over the route for remote driver to take over

What is stopping then from rolling this out.

The last bit is not fiction. There's a startup trying this.

Starsky Robotics' Unmanned Truck Drives on Public Road in Florida

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Also did all the FSD demos go the same route?

One of Gerbers tweets made me feel like that.

 

[mongo]

He might have been talking about the old asynchronous kind.

Ah, that would make sense.
At least it wasn't magnetic core memory.
Or phosphor...
Or punch cards...
Or reel to reel...

Also did all the FSD demos go the same route?

One of Gerbers tweets made me feel like that.

I saw a tweet that pegged it at 10 minutes and another at 15, so guessing not. (Or traffic sucks there)

 

[SpudLime]

So are you gonna take the job Elon offered you?!

@verygreen commented on reddit that he thinks Elon would want to interview the other contributors to his post/report.

 

[Heimdallr]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Calling out Fred

 

[scaesare]

Less than 20 meters of the side roads were visible.

But you don't need to maintain that stopping distance for side roads you aren't taking, correct?

 

[SpudLime]

When I was watching the discussion about the chip Tesla built, I had flashbacks of trying to read some posts in this thread.

Elon...I mean @Fact Checking and our resident cyborg...er uh I mean @KarenRei and some others, I start to feel like Im watching this:

 

[farzyness]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Calling out Fred

*grabs popcorn*

 

[anthonyj]

Look at my avatar. That’s me for real rn. This Fred/Elon battle will be epic

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Ah, that would make sense.
At least it wasn't magnetic core memory.
Or phosphor...
Or punch cards...
Or reel to reel...


I saw a tweet that pegged it at 10 minutes and another at 15, so guessing not. (Or traffic sucks there)

I saw 10 miles and 15 minutes from two different people which could easily be the same drive.