Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gora321]

JayinShanghai‏ @ShanghaiJayin
Noisy @Lamborghini in China waiting at the light is so fun with a @Tesla What do you think? Thanks @xiaoteshushu for the video. #Tesla #TeslaChina #ModelX #China #Lamborghini

JayinShanghai on Twitter

659 views
8:01 PM - 19 Feb 2019 from Shanghai, People's Republic of China

 

[Sean Wagner]

@ShanghaiJayin | Feb 15

Previously I posted photos/video of two Model 3 arriving at Jinqiao Tesla Store in Shanghai.
Actually I just found out they are two new Test Drive Vehicles to meet high demand for test drive in the area.

JayinShanghai on Twitter

And to reiterate from a previous post of mine, the luxe market in China kept on growing last year.

 

[AcesDealt]

Looks to me like warranty reserve got cut from about 2300$ to 1700$ for the model 3 in q4. This was probably one of the juiciest remaining costs that could be cut. They might have another 500$ they can squeeze out in the long run if I were to guess.

They are somewhere around 37.5k$ I figure to make the 35k$ model. Likely another couple k for op.ex.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Will leasing boost the share price by the subsequential sales or depress the share price because it is suggestive of weakened demand?

Tesla is preparing to offer Model 3 leasing to boost demand

By that logic, do all automakers have weak demand? Asking because my understanding is that the Model 3 having no lease option is the exception in the marketplace.

 

[AcesDealt]

Leasing should push up demand at every price point. I'd prefer they stay high on ASP and worry less about cash, so I'm all for leasing. It's possible that residual values had to be given some time to become more predictable before starting a leasing program but I dunno for sure.

I keep wondering if Tesla isn't making a boneheaded decision in avoiding advertising. Defying convention doesn't always work out for them.

 

[wnorris]

Tasha Keeney‏ @TashaARK
We think many auto companies are on their way to bankruptcy in the next decade. And its not going to be because they miss monthly production targets. It will be because they didn't invest in autonomous and missed the boat on a $2 trillion natural monopoly market.

2:10 PM - 19 Feb 2019
Tasha Keeney on Twitter

ARK is doing a good job of getting their investment thesis out. More importantly they are doing as good a job, if not better, than Elon and Tesla of highlighting the long term view of where Tesla will be in two to five years.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Do the heterogenous global entities with power to set policy support autonomy as a monopoly?

 

[shlokavica22]

I have a different take: they compiled diverse difficult scenes into one youtube video to demonstrate their system's current capabilities. Watched the whole thing twice, once at speeds roughly matching real time. I'll gladly repeat I find it impressive. My point is less about singling out Cruise than being able to get an idea of what's possible today.

Elon said that there are millions of corner cases. Probably they can be simulated, probably not. TSLA's approach relies on corner cases collected from real world scenarios. Not only that, but they also have the reaction from the driver when such a scenario occurs. This kind of data gives them huge edge. Moreover, the collection of this data grows exponentially (following the exponential growth of Tesla's fleet).

What other companies show are capabilities limited to specific areas. The corner cases in those areas are limited. That's why many people find that unimpressive. They also realize the approach from this companies is shortsighted and won't be successful in the long run (at least not before TSLA gets there first).

The other important thing that Elon highlighted- the new hardware gives much more freedom to the software side. Not only it allows better software solutions, but it also speeds up the software development.

 

[gringotuanis]

Elon could mean annualized rate of 500,000/yr (not that 2019's production total will be 500,000).

Or 9,615/wk which seems... possible

Yep, tweet was corrected

 

[Sean Wagner]

...

Yes, there's potential in that approach, and I've mentioned Tesla's trove of data often enough in FT comments.
But how about taking the discussion to the autonomous forum?

Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

 

[ReflexFunds]

January 2019 passenger car sales:
China BEVs +268% yoy, PHEVs +55%, ICEs -20%. EVs 4.5% share.
Norway BEV +60%, PHEV -17%, ICE -23%. 52% share.
Germany BEV + 68%, PHEV -26%, ICE -8%. 2.5% share.
UK BEV +110%, PHEV -16%, ICE -2%.
France BEV +138%, PHEV +14%. 2.7% share.
Sweden EVs +53%, ICE -16%. 13% share.
Holland BEVs +100%. 6.9% share.
Ireland EVs +292%.
Canada BEVs +75%.
US BEVs +42%.
Spain EV sales +52%. 1.1% share.

January is a very weak month seasonally for EV sales but yoy growth rates are accelerating and ICE sales are starting to collapse. Model 3 launch in Europe should accelerate many of these rates further in February and March.

China policy is going to be key for global EV sales as a whole in 2019. China are moving increasingly from a carrot to a stick approach for its EV policies. China is expected to update its subsidy policy in early March. According to Ke Mo from RealLi Research: there is a strong likelihood of at least 50% cuts in national government subsidies for NEVs and cancellation of subsidies from local government in the 2019 policy.

Instead China are focusing on their ZEV program, which will prevent the approval of any new car models in China unless the automaker has enough ZEV credits. China already looks ahead of its 2019 ZEV mandate on average but with strong variation between automakers (some at 0% EVs, some already at 50-100% EVs).

 

[Sean Wagner]

Thank you, that's informative. The US is lagging more than I thought, and China - as expected - pulling ahead. We also know that China is drawing in more EV investments than the rest of the world combined, if I remember correctly.

China policy is going to be key for global EV sales as a whole in 2019. China are moving increasingly from a carrot to a stick approach for its EV policies.

China's very hefty subsidies for battery manufacturers are also being phased out.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Thank you, that's informative. The US is lagging more than I thought, and China - as expected - pulling ahead.

The US market is still completely driven by Tesla, a slower January was due to heavy seasonality in Tesla deliveries and focus on production for Europe and Asia in January. In December US EVs were +90% yoy and reached a 3.1% share of car sales.
But definitely ex-Tesla, US manufacturers are massively lagging in the transition.

 

[winfield100]

Elon said "around 500k".

Before we all get ahead of ourselves, let's recognize that in the context of going from zero, 400k is around 500k.

Just trying to keep it real, homies.

In context
Every 100,000 model 3’s,
are —>>>8 gigawatt hours of batteries.
To be able to just casually say,
“ oh, 32 - 40 gigawatt hours of batteries “
or
“oh, 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles “
Same thing kinda.
----
edited @6:56am, bleary eyed, no caffeine, no crumpets or toast

 

[Carl Raymond]

In context
Every 100,000 model 3’s,
are —>>>8 gigawatts of batteries.
To be able to just casually say,
“ oh, 32 - 40 gigawatts of batteries “
or
“oh, 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles “
Same thing kinda.

gigawatt hours

 

[mongo]

Correct
-2 points to me for my incorrect post.
You went for the inconsequential error and not the amazing battery capacity tho
Time for tea and crumpets for breakfast

Ours was implied

Go Tesla!

 

[winfield100]

Ours was implied

Go Tesla!

Go Tesla, agreed,, PV, EV, VPP's, Mars, etc

 

[Carl Raymond]

Correct
-2 points to me for my incorrect post.
You went for the inconsequential error and not the amazing battery capacity tho
Time for tea and crumpets for breakfast

Not inconsequential. Tech trained folks use unit checking to separate the wheat from the chaff. Now you are wheat.

 

[mongo]

Not inconsequential. Tech trained folks use unit checking to separate the wheat from the chaff. Now you are wheat.

Because chaff chafes?

 

[AudubonB]

You both missed the truly amazing “no crumpets” part.