Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bhtooefr]

I think a sports car or large luxury sedan/SUV will need 1000kg batteries for good range. I believe weight is not as important in electric vehicles as in gasoline cars, because they can get the kinetic energy back.

In a sports car, a 1000 kg battery will do bad things to handling. Center of gravity will be low, so body roll will be well controlled without having to have stiff anti-roll bars, but you still have to fight the inertia of that much weight. (That's presumably why the SpaceX package on the Roadster is a thing, in an attempt to get some inertia fighting ability beyond what road-legal tires can do.)

In a luxury sedan/SUV, heavy often ends up improving ride quality if the suspension is tuned for it (because the inertia helps you instead of hurting you), and may well actually improve its luxury behaviors.

 

[Tslynk67]

From CNBC:

UPDATE 2-Panasonic cuts profit outlook on slowing China demand; Tesla business a bright spot

Panasonic cuts profit outlook on slowing China demand; Tesla business a bright spot

Makiko Yamazaki
Published 1 Hour Ago Reuters
business a bright spot@

* Posts Q3 op profit of 97.6 bln yen vs 122.35 bln yen expected

* Cuts full-yr op profit forecast to 385 bln yen


* Energy division, which includes Tesla batteries, back to profit (Adds comment from CFO, details)

TOKYO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Japan's Panasonic Corp cut its annual profit outlook after disappointing quarterly earnings it blamed on a slowing Chinese economy hit by a trade war with the United States that hurt demand for auto components and factory equipment.

Panasonic forecast an operating profit of 385 billion yen ($3.51 billion) for the year ending March, down from the previously predicted 425 billion yen and missing the 420.25 billion yen average of 18 analyst estimates polled by Refinitiv.

"Demand for mechatronics, mostly motors, has plunged since November as our clients making equipment for smartphone factories cut their investment," Panasonic Chief Financial Officer Hirokazu Umeda told a briefing.

China's shrinking car market has crimped demand for automotive components, Panasonic said, while sales have also dropped for electronic devices used in air conditioners.

Panasonic's operating profit for the October-December quarter fell 19 percent to 97.6 billion yen, far below the average 122.35 billion yen estimate of eight analysts.

The energy division, which includes its battery business with U.S. electric car maker Tesla Inc, provided some good news in a bleak quarter, posting its first operating profit in three quarters.

"Sales and profit at the Tesla business have improved," Umeda said of the division's 16.5 billion yen operating profit.

He said additional lines at Tesla's "Gigafactory" battery plant in Nevada would be installed by the end of March, bringing the plant's total capacity to the 35 Gigawatt hours (GWh).

Panasonic, the exclusive battery cell supplier for Tesla's current production models, saw its profits squeezed early last year by the U.S. EV maker's initial production delays for the mass-market Model 3 sedan.

Tesla expressed optimism last month that it would post profits in every quarter in 2019, but the winding down of a U.S. tax subsidy this year is expected to make Tesla cars more expensive and could hurt sales.

At the briefing, Umeda said a decision had not been taken yet on how Panasonic would supply battery cells for Tesla's new Shanghai car factory. Tesla has been in discussions with other suppliers, including China's Tianjin Lishen.

"We have production sites for cylindrical batteries in the United States, Japan and China," Umeda said. "We are in the process of analyzing where would be the best to supply batteries."

To reduce its heavy reliance on Tesla, Panasonic has teamed up with Toyota Motor Corp to jointly develop and produce thin, rectangular-shaped prismatic batteries, a type different from the cylindrical batteries used in Tesla EVs.

Panasonic plans to supply prismatic batteries to its existing customers such as Honda Motor Co through the Toyota joint venture.

"We are aiming to develop the best batteries in the industry that would be wanted by a wide range of carmakers," Umeda said. ($1 = 109.8400 yen) (Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Darren Schuettler)

 

[Tslynk67]

Something in-between American Idol and the Olympics, where each country submits its own entry each year. Ostensibly a non-political song-contest; in practice, incredibly political. Russia is often a hot-button contestant. For example, after Russia invaded Georgia, Georgia tried to enter the song "We Don't Wanna Put-In". Russia objected that it was a clear dig at Putin, and their objection was sustained; Georgia sat out the competition in protest rather than taking part. But when Ukraine entered the song "1944" by Jamala after Russia annexed Crimea, Russia's objections were overruled since it was ostensibly her singing about something personal - even though that personal thing was how Russia ethnically cleansed her family, and the lyrics were directly applicable to the current Crimean crisis - stuff like:

"When strangers are coming, they come to your house
They kill you all, and say we're not guilty, not guilty.
Where is your mind? Humanity cries.
You think you are gods. But everyone dies."
.... etc

Russia pulled out all the stops to win that year, putting a ton of money into their stage performances (the stage performances are generally very high-tech theatrics) and hiring not one but two past Eurovision winners to help their candidate making a winning performance. Ukraine of course was quite underfunded. But in the end Ukraine beat out Russia, meaning that Russia had to keep listening to their song being replayed, and the next Eurovision contest was in Ukraine

As I mentioned... ostensibly entirely nonpolitical. In practice? Highly political. Moreso than the olympics.

Here's the aforementioned Jamala song:

Here's a good example of blending technicals with the song:

Oh, and another popular trend is tolerant western-European countries taunting conservative eastern-European countries with their tolerance For example, a couple years back this was the winning act:

All this said: about 85% of the music is terrible, 10% "passable", and only about 5% "good". Which means that some years you don't get any songs at all one would consider "good". But it's fun regardless, even if only to cheer against those you really don't want to win. And the politics

Iceland has a habit of rejecting great bands and selecting terrible ones. That said, one year we did send someone to troll the contest

The greatest Eurovision song of all time that was never actually in Eurovision:

 

[Tslynk67]

The Tesla Roadster will probably have the biggest battery and highest range when it comes out. This will be needed on the German Autobahn, where the 100kWh batteries only last 150km/100 miles when driven aggressively. People with money that need to travel 300km/200 miles one way every weekend will want it.

So I'm thinking the Roadster will sell well in Germany to people who otherwise wouldn't buy a sports car.

If companies support buying the Roadster because it's the only truly long range EV in Germany, then the numbers could be much, much higher even.

I get 225kms driving crazy on Autobahn, so speeds 160-200kmph and hard acceleration to annoy the Porche's, Mercs and Beemers.

 

[Tslynk67]

Fat fingers, small screens.

Sorry

 

[bhtooefr]

Wait, a Tesla cannot deliver power from its charging port:

1) This would be very complicated from a regulatory point of view,
2) EM thinks that a BEV without range makes it unpractical for its primary purpose,
3) For a Tesla with unlimited Supercharging, this would create a loophole, where unlimited amounts of electricity could be siphoned away and sold by the owner of the car.

Plug-out is a thing that's in demand for some markets, but doing it at Superchargers for money is... nobody's gonna do that.

(The Japanese market is where it's most in demand, and CHAdeMO supports it now because of that. Essentially, they want to be able to plug-out their EV, FCEV, or PHEV into their home to use it as a generator in case of a large-scale power outage like the 2011 Fukushima disaster.)

That said, I'd imagine that supporting plug-out on the technical side would be a matter of adding the negotiation protocols in an OTA update. (And, on the S/X, that update could probably be done today, and it work in Japan with a plug-out inverter, with the CHAdeMO adapter that Tesla already sells.)

 

[winfield100]

,...... with the utility relatively indifferent.

Distributed solar generation with stationary storage sounds great in theory; but in practice, if there is a grid connection to provide reliability and back-up power--welcome to the neverland morass of utility regulation.

Utilities are not indifferent. Florida voted against a power grab by utilities against distributed Solar. It’s a morass, yes, but there are companies trying to do VPP’s (large aggregated PV & battery arrays) it is a death knell for some utilities. If the Australians succeed in their VPP of 50,000, they will essentially have a VPP of between 2.5 and 5 _Gigawatts_ powered by _sunlight_, not coal, gas, nukes

 

[Peteski]

In a luxury sedan/SUV, heavy often ends up improving ride quality if the suspension is tuned for it (because the inertia helps you instead of hurting you), and may well actually improve its luxury behaviors.

I kind of agree, but it hasn't quite worked out that way on the Model X. The ride quality is definitely worse than the lighter and lower riding Model S. I suspect with the MX the CofG is high enough that they had to stiffen it up considerably to avoid scraping the door mirrors on the floor while cornering hard. My MX still rides and handles okay for the most part, but I doubt it would stand adding another large chunk of battery. I can also easily tell the difference in handling between the 75D and 100D models, the former are definitely sharper and less cumbersome on the brakes and that's "only" a 150 kg delta.

 

[SPadival]

* Sales outlook revised downward due to 'cylindrical production at automotive battery factory in North America is pushed back'

Let the people here have the full picture - cylindrical production push back is a small portion of the overall revision. Majority of the revision is due to "others" as shown below.

Also, note that "Prismatic: weakening demand for eco cars" below is corporate speak for "Hybrids are falconed due to Model 3 demand"

 

[JRP3]

Wait, a Tesla cannot deliver power from its charging port:

1) This would be very complicated from a regulatory point of view,
2) EM thinks that a BEV without range makes it unpractical for its primary purpose,
3) For a Tesla with unlimited Supercharging, this would create a loophole, where unlimited amounts of electricity could be siphoned away and sold by the owner of the car.

Right, but that's what gora was talking about, hence my response.

 

[dc_h]

The Panasonic highlight regarding Tesla is 35GWh by March. If Tesla is only making 7000 Model 3’s and not using 2170 in SX, they have 10-15GWh spare capacity at 75kwh per model 3. That’s either a lot of Tesla Energy or something else.

 

[Reciprocity]

I have been pondering this question for a few weeks now: why aren’t we hearing anything from Congress (Californian or Nevadan lawmakers) about changing the EV tax rebate? I find it truly mindboggling.

With Tesla and GM having reached the threshold of 200,000 cars, and Tesla buyers already getting only half the rebate, the program has now turned into a government paid stimulation program for mostly foreign carmakers.

Whereas the Chinese rebate program is limited to Chinese built cars, the US program is now actually doing the opposite: it is trying to get car buyers to choose a European built Jaguar or Audi or a Korean built Hyundai or KIA over an American built Tesla or Chevy!

Make Europe Great Again? Make Korea Great Again? You can’t make stuff like this up.

Maga - Make all German-autos great again.

 

[PaulRocket]

If Tesla produces 300k Model 3 this year at roughly 65 kWh per pack (don't forget SR is coming and will have 55 kWh) they will need 19.5 GWh for Model 3. They will only use 2-3 GWh for TE.
This lines up with my expectation that they will introduce a LR Model S and X with 400 miles of range. Makes sense also from a factory tooling perspective. They will be quite busy performing upgrades in June/July when Model 3 SR gets introduced but should have plenty of time in April.

 

[KarenRei]

This lines up with my expectation that they will introduce a LR Model S and X with 400 miles of range

They literally just said days ago that they're not going to do this.

Tesla has tons of products which can use that capacity. Beyond the truly massive powerpack/megapack projects that Tesla has been queueing up and a huge powerwall backlog, the most notable would be that there's a general consensus that Supercharger V3 is going to include some sort of Powerpack-style battery buffer.

 

[Chickenlittle]

If Tesla produces 300k Model 3 this year at roughly 65 kWh per pack (don't forget SR is coming and will have 55 kWh) they will need 19.5 GWh for Model 3. They will only use 2-3 GWh for TE.
This lines up with my expectation that they will introduce a LR Model S and X with 400 miles of range. Makes sense also from a factory tooling perspective. They will be quite busy performing upgrades in June/July when Model 3 SR gets introduced but should have plenty of time in April.

I don’t understand your numbers panasonic just reported that their new battery lines will be running by next month and will produce 36 GWh worth not 22 to 23 you report in your comment

 

[PaulRocket]

They literally just said days ago that they're not going to do this.

Tesla has tons of products which can use that capacity. Beyond the truly massive powerpack/megapack projects that Tesla has been queueing up and a huge powerwall backlog, the most notable would be that there's a general consensus that Supercharger V3 is going to include some sort of Powerpack-style battery buffer.

No they didn't. They said they currently have no plans to switch to 2170s for S and X which by the way doesn't mean that it's not coming.
Sorry but I see absolutely zero chance of the S and X not getting more range this year. It's been a while since they got any sort of upgrade and it would make sense to do this right around when the german competition enters the market, before introduction of SR Model 3 and before crazy Model Y production ramp in 2020.

 

[KarenRei]

Speaking of Superchargers and V3... I've been thinking for a while. Can the existing inverter cabinets be retrofit to charge powerpacks? I'd certainly think so; don't they use standardized inverter modules common between Superchargers and Powerpacks? If so, I think there's a direct upgrade path for existing Superchargers rather than a "tear down and replace" approach.

They'd need:

• Enlarged enclosure for the battery cabinets (unless the existing enclosure is already large enough)
• Possible zoning modifications for the enlarged enclosure and the new hardware (although possibly not)
  
• To re-run higher gauge cable through the conduits to the SC pedestals
• New SC pedestal cables, capable of handling V3 currents.

They wouldn't need:

• New zoning
• Paving
• Trenching
• New conduits
• New pedestals
• New enclosures
• New grid connections
• New inverter cabinets / racks

I'd think it well cheaper and far faster than building new Supercharger stations.

 

[PaulRocket]

I don’t understand your numbers panasonic just reported that their new battery lines will be running by next month and will produce 36 GWh worth not 22 to 23 you report in your comment

Take a calculator, type in the amount of vehicles Tesla will sell this year and multiply that number by the size of the average battery pack. There you go that's the amount of batteries they will need based on what we know. Now if Panasonic is saying they are producing more batteries then we think Tesla needs, this leads me to believe they will use them for something else. Since S and X cell production is currently in Japan it would make sense to use the excess battery production and switch S and X cell production to the GF.

 

[KarenRei]

No they didn't. They said they currently have no plans to switch to 2170s for S and X which by the way doesn't mean that it's not coming.

It literally does mean that it's not coming any time soon. If they turned around and did it any time soon that would mean that they lied in an SEC-enforceable investor call and they'd have the book thrown at them.

 

[bhtooefr]

Unless, of course, future product will be using an enhanced 18650-based pack design.

Any pack design lessons from the Model 3 can be applied to the smaller cell format, too.

Any chemistry lessons from the 21700 cells can be applied to the 18650 cell format, too.

That would mean that they weren't lying about there being no plans to go to 21700 cells, but would fall under the lack of comment under future product.

(Also worth noting that Musk implied that the 2020 Roadster is using a double-stacked S/X pack design in his interview with Marques Brownlee. That would imply that updated 18650s may well survive for a very long time in applications where power density is more important than energy density. The S/X has 14 modules single-stacked, 2 modules at the front double-stacked - that would imply to me that a Roadster having the same wheelbase as S/X with the current module design would have 30 modules. That would require an increase of energy density above the current pack - 30 of the current modules are only 192 kWh, and at Tesla's current rating practices, I'd expect about 205 kWh actual for 200 kWh claimed. That would need a ~110 kWh S/X pack.)