US only because the gasoline is heavily subsided here. People buying Tesla's for gas savings is just funny
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
US only because the gasoline is heavily subsided here. People buying Tesla's for gas savings is just funny
Cars that can offer same level of safety usually can’t do more than 30mpg, because, wait, because they don’t exist!US only because the gasoline is heavily subsided here. People buying Tesla's for gas savings is just funny
On the demand issue, my take is this:
It is not advisable to look at the demand issue in a static view. That is, total demand for a particular sector of the automobile market every year is more or less stable if the macro is stable. Model 3s have been in the market for about a year. During that year, many of the potential customers may not have heard the name or know enough about the brand, at least in the beginning. So the effective addressable market for Model 3 was quite limited. On the other hand, tesla enthusiasts may have created some artificial demand in the beginning for a short while. The elephant in the room will be the increasing effective addressable market as more model 3s zoom by quietly on the road and more media coverage, more brand awareness, more word of mouth etc. The effect I personally think will ensure that demand will be there although the configuration mix may decrease in ASP.
In other words, I expect the entry level luxury market share by tesla may not be saturated yet. We may see more take over by tesla in the following year or two.
Actually, the main attention should be paid to the battery production. It has been a bottleneck, I think , for a while. With the GF3 coming up, I expect major increase in productions to fully meet the increasing addressable market and along with that, economy of scale will usher in SR model 3 that is going to take a lead in that particular market sector.
The rolling in of Y will come next. As long as Elon and his team execute without major issues. Future is very bright and the slashing of the work force indicates production efficiency increase and may be consistent with my point about battery production being the bottleneck: tesla simply cannot produce much more vehicles for the time being and therefore don't need so many workers for a while.
It is not advisable to look at the demand issue in a static view. That is, total demand for a particular sector of the automobile market every year is more or less stable if the macro is stable. Model 3s have been in the market for about a year. During that year, many of the potential customers may not have heard the name or know enough about the brand, at least in the beginning. So the effective addressable market for Model 3 was quite limited. On the other hand, tesla enthusiasts may have created some artificial demand in the beginning for a short while. The elephant in the room will be the increasing effective addressable market as more model 3s zoom by quietly on the road and more media coverage, more brand awareness, more word of mouth etc. The effect I personally think will ensure that demand will be there although the configuration mix may decrease in ASP.
In other words, I expect the entry level luxury market share by tesla may not be saturated yet. We may see more take over by tesla in the following year or two.
Actually, the main attention should be paid to the battery production. It has been a bottleneck, I think , for a while. With the GF3 coming up, I expect major increase in productions to fully meet the increasing addressable market and along with that, economy of scale will usher in SR model 3 that is going to take a lead in that particular market sector.
The rolling in of Y will come next. As long as Elon and his team execute without major issues. Future is very bright and the slashing of the work force indicates production efficiency increase and may be consistent with my point about battery production being the bottleneck: tesla simply cannot produce much more vehicles for the time being and therefore don't need so many workers for a while.
Smokey4141
Banned
Well, I don't mean to be blunt, but you don't need a "gigglefactory", you just need a .......factory.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
In the "building" that Tesla owns, the battery production employees, and the equipment, are owned by Panasonic....
Without Panasonic, Tesla owns (and leases VERY cheaply to Panasonic) a big empty building in the middle of no-where....
To be fair, Panasonic makes VERY good batteries, no-doubt, (and I love their electronics), but to think they can't grow their production (as they deem prudent) independent of Tesla......is....just wrong...
But LG is a growing supplier, as is Panasonic itself (as you noted), in "non-gigglefactories".....
Not to even get into the growing list of Chinese battery manufacturers... Capacity is growing, regardless of Tesla's demand requirements...
And, to finish up, if Tesla uses all the batteries the giga-factory produces, how indeed would they be able to sell any elsewhere??
Which is your original statement....
<<<<< Tesla will be around. Not making cars. But supplying batteries for 10s of millions of cars. >>>>>>
Something makes no sense...
While it's hard to make "generalized" statements because everyone's use-case and configuration are different,0,31kWh/mi is a pretty pessimistic consumption figure. Some people will average that (particularly if they got the 20" wheels and like to drive fast
), but not most people.But yes, the main point stands, which is that charging is generally AC, not DC. Fast charging is for road trips. And you're paying to support the infrastructure.
Batteries meaning multi-cell packs. + BMS + charger + motors.
(Yes there is such a thing as a single cell battery, but that is not very useful for an EV)
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Thanks, I finally found it. Doh! I'm a bit of a lead foot and its been cold so the 328 average wasn't a surprise.
Well, I do mean to be blunt.
That you wrote that seminal interior paragraph as you did, preserved above, demonstrates either:
1. You haven't been paying attention, or
2. You have mischievous intent in writing on this forum
Neither reflects well on you.
Your post's final sentence is, however, nicely self-referential.
hacer
Active Member
Most superchargers in NJ are $0.29/kWh. I could only see one that was $0.32/kWh.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes, there may be longs who have "trading shares" - who want to sell shares and get calls. But unlikely to be that many.
BTW, real longs won't sell at $300 esp. with ER in 7 days and after a major sudden drop. Most of us would have to pay a lot of cap tax when we sell. I can understand people selling at ATH - $300. Anyway who is selling now at $300 thinking they can pickup at a lower price would be taking a big risk.
<NotAnAdvice>
Ofcourse depends on the macros too. If Nasdaq tanks, shorts may use that opportunity to drive the price down to $295. But if Nasdaq goes up, very unlikely SP will go down. I won't be surprised to see SP back at $350 by end of the week - may be even $335 on Tuesday.
</NotAnAdvice>
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Of course, just as he does on SA and all other outlets where he spews his nonsense. He knows it's so indefensible that he long ago stopped responding to comments on his articles on SA because they were so easily and consistently torn apart. I'm not sure what sort of delusion allows him to think he'll somehow fare better on this forum where almost everyone is much better informed.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Supercharging should be 2x the price of charging at home. When you get services/goods on the go - they always cost more. You pay for the convenience. Like your pop from grocery store vs a cold one at a rest stop. Or $4 latte compared to home made latte.
BTW, gas in WA costs, may be $2.50 (haven't paid attention in 8 years) and my "green" electricity costs $11c/kWh. So, still cheaper in WA to supercharge.
ps : Updated gas price.
Here in California gas is $3.50 per gallon. Supercharging is .26/ kwh. My Model 3 takes me 4.45 miles per Kw. .26 divided by 4.45 = $.058 per mile. Gas at $3.50 divided by 25mpg = $.14. So gas is 3 times as expensive. We, like many people here charge from solar.
Gas also brings with it all sorts of other costs. Lung cancer, brain damage to children, and even the premature death of my wife 7 years ago who grew up near an oil refinery.
This woman, and several of the young people who lived in her neighborhood near a refinery, all died prematurely of a similar type of AML leukemia. It was because of Anne's illness that I went EV back in 2012. I was not going to have any part of doing to other children, what was done to Anne.
The first picture is Anne in 2010. The second picture is Anne in 2011:
Just a wake up call just how expensive gas can be.
Last edited:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Toyota Camry 4 cylinder will get you about 30 MPG, 0-60 7.6 seconds
Toyota Camry Hybrid will get you about 50 MPG, 0-60 7.9 seconds.
The slowest Model 3 will(123 MPGe) do 0-60 in 5.5 seconds, quicker than a Camry V6 XSE( MSRP $35k Plus).
Then there is safety.......
Actually, a good point. I’m curious: can they sell said technology to anyone else? As far as I’m aware, a lot of the battery tech involved is invented by Tesla and just manufactured by Panasonic.
Ulmo
Active Member
During all the political power-grabbing debates about "global climate change" that cannot ever come to a logical conclusion because they're all liars (both sides), I keep saying that clean local air and clean air worldwide is what I'm interested in, not a bunch of "climate change" lies; I KNOW clean air is a real issue that is solved by electric vehicles. I decided that when I was walking next to a road and got a migraine headache from the ICE car pollution when I was young. That's why I keep promoting clean energy and clean air.
We in USA as a country were about to be taken over by globalists who wanted to enslave and kill us citizens and don't actually give a damn about the environment and just see "environment" as another excuse to steal and shift tax money & power around. USA prevented that war by becoming energy independent, but at the cost of rushing to oil and coal. We need to take advantage of our current but temporary (6 more years) freedom, stability, and comfort to build out our solar panels and batteries so that we can continue to prosper and thrive with clean air. I encourage Tesla to produce much more solar panels much less expensively, and produce much more batteries much less expensively, as well as invest in inexpensive jurisdictional and regulatory integration (streamlining installs to make their cost a fraction of what they are now).
I don't know what we $TSLA investors can do about that, but there are some things that we can see Tesla do that are on pathways that achieve clean air, such as ramping up production at the Buffalo and Sparks factories to cover all Tesla electric vehicle charging needs plus local energy needs (electric, heating, etc.). A lot of that is the slow slog of attention to detail that each factory needs, and we've heard scant news about them speeding up; anybody have stats for that?
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
True, and they should if they are being abused, and unionizing would be to their benefit. Hopefully Tesla is not abusing them or treating them unfairly. I don't think Tesla is. A company needs to be able to reduce force when it deems necessary. Don't handicap them by expecting them to be a charity. I'm a union electrician and companies I worked for always had the right to reduce force as the jobs wound down requiring less workers. If Tesla has more employees than it needs then of course it should layoff employees.
Ulmo
Active Member
Just thinking out loud. I'm not sure where that puts $TSLA right now:
Toyota Camry 4 cylinder will get you about 30 MPG, 0-60 7.6 seconds
Toyota Camry Hybrid will get you about 50 MPG, 0-60 7.9 seconds.
The slowest Model 3 will(123 MPGe) do 0-60 in 5.5 seconds, quicker than a Camry V6 XSE( MSRP $35k Plus).
Then there is safety.......
I keep asking Tesla to offer:
- Fully competent CCS adapter for all Tesla EV's that can fully use the abilities of the CCS chargers and Tesla EVs (maximum charge capability as well as proper control of charging speed).
- Certify competitive charging companies to give SuperCharger spec Tesla output for SuperCharging Tesla cars. ChargePoint asked Tesla for this spec, but got the runaround. It might even just be a plug format + software for some chargers.
Energy is going to cost a lot while the world (including USA) is still building solar cell and solar panel factories and battery factories. After some decades, the cost of those things will have dropped more, the installed base will give a comfortable minimum working level, and that price competition will really help the economics of electric cars. Nuclear Fusion might also help this.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
An employee cares about his job not about what the company needs.
If being without union means their will be a culling of ~7% every 6 months and going with a Union means there will not and if Tesla does do a layoff you will be first in line for the new openings then factory workers will chose the UAW.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
