Tesla Semi

[LCR1]

....
I'd like to see how many trucks Tesla can out on the road prior to 2019. Then from the very start of 2019, I'd like to see production rates of at least 1000/week.

There is no way Tesla is building 1,000 week. You're talking about 10X the batteries and 4x the number of motors, that alone will create a bottleneck with M3 ramp up. Not to mention that Class 8 truck sales are usually less than 300,000 units a year. That's ALL class 8 trucks to include dump trucks, garbage trucks, straight trucks, box trucks. And that's all of North America; US, Mexico, and Canada. No way is Tesla taking 20-30% of the US truck market anytime soon, let alone in 2019.

Tesla is going to learn real quick what happens when they can't del

Now, be careful with these projections of market share.
There is this company that almost stole whole premium sport sedan market.

Why would you buy a new diesel truck in 2019 if you can get an electric one in 2020?
Diesel truck market will shrink if electric semi looks promising enough.

And what company nearly stole that sport sedan market? Tesla didn't even come close in the sport sedan market or the luxury market in general. BMW sold 2million cars last year alone. Tesla sells one car BMW or anyone else sells multiple cars. if you want a Tesla you get the biggest car on the market if you want a BMW you have two dozen choices.

Tesla also isn't the only electric semi on the market.

People would by a new truck in 2019 because they need a new truck.

 

[LCR1]

For those who have been wondering, even though Tesla didn't announce it, the weight of the truck is planned by Tesla to be 20,000 lbs.

As a day cab or long wheel base sleeper model? day cab configurations are a few tons lighter than that.

 

[WarpedOne]

BMW sold 2million cars last year alone.

I'm sure there are a few people who crossshopped BMW 318i and S-Class AMG but there ain't 2 million of those.
When you look at the particular price segment where tesla does compete, there ain't 2 million BMW sold.

But we have nothing to agree upon, your basis is way off.

 

[electracity]

For those who have been wondering, even though Tesla didn't announce it, the weight of the truck is planned by Tesla to be 20,000 lbs.

A truck site had an article saying that the trucks show were carbon fiber and that final materials and weight had not been determined.

 

[SmartElectric]

Presuming with such a heavy battery powered tractor, due to regulation, the maximum combined vehicle weight of the tractor + trailer will be restricted to be lower trailer load weight than a diesel truck which is lighter on the tractor part.

 

[SmartElectric]

I am a bit surprised that there are no motors in the front wheels, would seem to be useful for higher gearing and for traction in bad weather.

Reason = Traction.
The center of mass of a tractor trailer is closer to the back wheels of the tractor.

Front wheel drive makes more sense in shorter wheelbase applications as in an automobile.

 

[mongo]

Reason = Traction.
The center of mass of a tractor trailer is closer to the back wheels of the tractor.

Front wheel drive makes more sense in shorter wheelbase applications as in an automobile.

Along with that, when accelerating, the trailer connection becomes a rotation point that unloads the front wheels.

 

[LCR1]

I'm sure there are a few people who crossshopped BMW 318i and S-Class AMG but there ain't 2 million of those.
When you look at the particular price segment where tesla does compete, there ain't 2 million BMW sold.

But we have nothing to agree upon, your basis is way off.

You can always look up BMWs sales numbers, they're public. They sold 300K BMWs last year in the US alone. Tesla has managed less than 200K since its inception. Add Lexus, jaguar, MB, Audi, etc and Tesla sells squat in the luxury market. Teslas only offering at all is in the smallest sub category of the smallest market, they specifically designed it that way.

 

[WarpedOne]

But we have nothing to agree upon, your basis is way off.

For starters you could try not comparing BMW 3xy sales numbers with 7xy sales numbers.

 

[LCR1]

Again, Tesla offers one car. If someone wants a Tesla they are forced into the 7Series category. if BMW offered only one car their sales in the category would obviously go up. Again, there's a reason tesla chose to "compete" in that market.

 

[Ichabod]

As a day cab or long wheel base sleeper model? day cab configurations are a few tons lighter than that.

The sleeper model

 

[Ichabod]

A truck site had an article saying that the trucks show were carbon fiber and that final materials and weight had not been determined.

I understand that to be true, which is why they didn't announce the weight. The 20k lbs is the spec they are "expecting". The design is not done yet, so they don't really know for sure yet. They just used the 20k lbs as their design basis, and that's what the acceleration specs are based on.

 

[AudubonB]

Source, please, Ichabod?

I am not contradicting you in the least, nor am I suggesting 20K anything but a reasonable number - I am, however, calling you out for writing something in a definitive manner without any corroborating material.

 

[Ichabod]

Source, please, Ichabod?

I am not contradicting you in the least, nor am I suggesting 20K anything but a reasonable number - I am, however, calling you out for writing something in a definitive manner without any corroborating material.

I fully understand the need for the backup, but unfortunately, I can't give that in this case. Just rest assured that you won't be finding anyone refuting it with solid information, at least not unless Tesla changes their plans. If anyone chooses to ignore my number due to lack of sourcing, I totally understand. I would too given the circumstances.

 

[DurandalAI]

I was thinking about regen on the semi.
I think it will need to be activated manually through a paddle shifter type control, assuming 100% jackknife control is a fantasy. Errr,.. "aspirational".

What exactly causes a jackknife? You have a load pushing on the back of the truck, and due to the inability to control every wheel discreetly, there is more stopping on one side of the truck than the other. However if you can control each wheel with sampling at the millisecond level, the ability to alter it at that speed, then I think that 99%+ cases they probably CAN handle it. We are so used to half-assed solutions like anti-lock brakes that don’t variably apply force but instead pulse, that we anticipate these types of systems from Tesla to be just as crappy, when they will not be.
It’s the same real-time calculations that allow you to take the extreme load of a missile, make corrections, and land it vertically. Pretty sure that’s a more difficult proposition than trying the same thing on a semi truck.

 

[Ichabod]

What exactly causes a jackknife? You have a load pushing on the back of the truck, and due to the inability to control every wheel discreetly, there is more stopping on one side of the truck than the other. However if you can control each wheel with sampling at the millisecond level, the ability to alter it at that speed, then I think that 99%+ cases they probably CAN handle it. We are so used to half-assed solutions like anti-lock brakes that don’t variably apply force but instead pulse, that we anticipate these types of systems from Tesla to be just as crappy, when they will not be.
It’s the same real-time calculations that allow you to take the extreme load of a missile, make corrections, and land it vertically. Pretty sure that’s a more difficult proposition than trying the same thing on a semi truck.

Jack knife is caused by losing traction on the tractor portion, usually from either a slick road, extreme steering/braking trying to avoid something, or impact in a wreck. Independent control of the drive wheels could certainly help, but if you lose traction because you are going sideways, you lost traction, period. I'm sure the incidence of jack knifing would be reduced, but eliminated? Absolutely not. Go take the best, state of the art traction control, get going about 80 mph, and then yank the wheel hard one way, You'll be able to skid, believe me. Do it on ice, and you won't even have to go more than about 10 or 15 mph to break lose. Traction control is incredibly helpful, but it's not magic.

 

[Ocelot]

I have never been in the truck industry nor do I understand the economics of it therefore I was delighted to listen to an Expert of the industry who owns a small truck Company in Canada and make a reservation for a Semi right at the Semi event to be in front of the line.

What he explained in his specific use case it makes sense in terms of economics, safety, usability, charging versus gasstation, comfort and so on...

worth listening to:

Blubrry PowerPress Player

Major issues with this with respect to range:
1. weight-he talks about 140 000 plus pound loads
2. weather-it can reach serious negative temps there. ie. -20 degrees Celcius
3. aerodynamics-modifying truck, and pulling loads not enclosed will seriously effect range (look at model x threads pulling a trailer/camper)
4. if buys truck, and then goes to media explaining, cannot make 400km trip, could be disastrous as no one but us fanatics will look at specifics. people will just note, promised 500 miles, cannot do 400km.

with that said, seems like a great candidate for Tesla to talk to and do some testing!..cause if the numbers look positive, that would be something.

 

[spottyq]

Major issues with this with respect to range:
1. weight-he talks about 140 000 plus pound loads
2. weather-it can reach serious negative temps there. ie. -20 degrees Celcius
3. aerodynamics-modifying truck, and pulling loads not enclosed will seriously effect range (look at model x threads pulling a trailer/camper)
4. if buys truck, and then goes to media explaining, cannot make 400km trip, could be disastrous as no one but us fanatics will look at specifics. people will just note, promised 500 miles, cannot do 400km.

with that said, seems like a great candidate for Tesla to talk to and do some testing!..cause if the numbers look positive, that would be something.

For the Semi, Tesla can spend some time educating prospective buyers, enquiring about their trips. That would especially make sense for the first deliveries; after that the industry will have a better grasp about the real-world capabilities of the truck.

 

[electracity]

What exactly causes a jackknife? You have a load pushing on the back of the truck, and due to the inability to control every wheel discreetly, there is more stopping on one side of the truck than the other. However if you can control each wheel with sampling at the millisecond level, the ability to alter it at that speed, then I think that 99%+ cases they probably CAN handle it. We are so used to half-assed solutions like anti-lock brakes that don’t variably apply force but instead pulse, that we anticipate these types of systems from Tesla to be just as crappy, when they will not be.
It’s the same real-time calculations that allow you to take the extreme load of a missile, make corrections, and land it vertically. Pretty sure that’s a more difficult proposition than trying the same thing on a semi truck.

You don't seem to be aware of the issues with regen on ice with the cars.
This will be a far greater risk in the semi. Not just on ice, but wet roads. Tesla will want to put the liability on the truck driver. Otherwise they are a plaintiff on every lawsuit that results from a jackknife.

 

[Lessmog]

Major issues with this with respect to range:
1. weight-he talks about 140 000 plus pound loads
2. weather-it can reach serious negative temps there. ie. -20 degrees Celcius
3. aerodynamics-modifying truck, and pulling loads not enclosed will seriously effect range (look at model x threads pulling a trailer/camper)
4. if buys truck, and then goes to media explaining, cannot make 400km trip, could be disastrous as no one but us fanatics will look at specifics. people will just note, promised 500 miles, cannot do 400km.

with that said, seems like a great candidate for Tesla to talk to and do some testing!..cause if the numbers look positive, that would be something.

I listened to the podcast, thanks - helpful.
I noticed a few misconceptions and mistakes between miles and km that may be confusing.

But I also heard him say that they would keep the really heavy-duty truck for those really heavy-duty tasks, and use the Tesla Semi for some lighter loads. Since most if not all of their driving is off highways and even off paved roads, they feel a greater need for clearance and accessibility to put on chains than for aero, and they also need a serious moose-guard rail to the front. Should be possible to arrange in the time available. He did explain the importance of the "nuqular glass"; needs new windshields every month.

I'm not convinced (one way or the other) how temperature as such affects range or driveability.

I do agree this buyer should look deeper into details before taking over the keys, but he said he wanted to be ahead of a long queue so he ran to put down a deposit. He can always change his mind later if the tires don't fit, so to speak.