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Tesla Semi

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With judicious route planning, this should very rarely occur. I’m sure the Semi will have the software to plan the optimal charge as long as the route is specified in advance.

Edit: Example starting at top of mountain where 200 kWh regen is expected on route, recommended charge would be 250 kWh below max.

Everything isn't known in advance and things can change with trucks, loads, and drivers. you don't get everything back when decending and the rate at which current motors can regen vs battery usage isn't great. My car doesn't get very good regen above 85% if the same applies to the truck you'd have to start out at 85% range just to get regen on the way down. You aren't always recouping all of the power on the way day and the down side doesn't always equal the upside. On of the routes in Oregon has a steep climb going west but the decnet is very gradual into the columbia river valley.

Tesla needs to figure a way to provide maximum regen from the get go or they won't make sense on certain routes. Drivers are also going to have to adapt to how the regen works at certain states of charge. As soon as I pull out in my truck the exhaust and transmission brakes are working 100% and I know ow that's going to effect the braking when loaded. If the regen isn't consistent it's going to take more brain power from the driver who's already trying to concentrate on many other things when driving.
 
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You've apparently never looked at a topo map of the US. The vast majority of the US is flat.
"
Um, vast majority?
upload_2017-11-19_17-59-12.png


Source: Elevation map of the United States
 
Free government-subsidized roads.

I think he's comparing the cost of the convoy with FREE ROADS to the price of rail transport which has to pay for the entire construction and maintenance of the tracks.

Compare it on toll roads and there's no way.

In unsubsidized economic terms, when looking at high-volume hauling over long distances, rail is cheaper period (and rail has a lot of improvements it could make -- aerodynamic, locomotive efficiency, battery locomotives, and much more).
I was not really trying to get into a discussion about taxes and subsidies. From what I hear heavy vehicles do not pay enough taxes to cover the cost of damage that they do to roads, so the rest of us wind up subsidizing trucking.

But assuming the current transportation taxes and subsidies, there is still the question of how convoys of electric semis can achieve a cost to shipper that is competitive with shipping by rail. If a Tesla Semi can ship 20 to 25 tons at $0.85/mile, this is in a neighborhood of 4c/ton-mile. Is this low enough for truckers to compete with trains given current transportation policies? Or put another way, would Tesla be money ahead to develop their own fleet to transport product from Fremont to the east coast in lieu shipping by train?

FWIW, I'm not at all arguing against trains or any particular transportation policy. I'm just trying to gauge the relative competitiveness of Tesla Semi in existing markets. It seems that if Semis can undercut rail that opens up huge market potential for the electric trucking industry. It could also spur the rail industry to compete more aggressively through innovation.
 

That map is completely exaggerating how rugged the central US is (and the US in general), to an almost comical extent. The majority of the US is tediously flat. The map I linked is *much* more accurate. Or even better: simply go to Google Maps and turn on terrain.

Trust me, I've spent most of my life in multiple locations that they draw as mountainous in your map, where in reality you'd have to drive 1000+ miles to see an actual mountain. Google is correct. The entire Gulf coast and southeast used to be *underwater* for crying out loud, and in the Great Plains the soil is so deep (leveling everything out) that anywhere you can find bedrock, they make it into a state park.

One of the places I lived (among many) was Houston. We were something like 60 miles from the ocean but only 60 feet altitude. One foot average incline per mile. And not much local variation therein. Also lived in Dallas (not much different from Houston), Nederland (if anything, worse than Houston), Indiana (most parts not much different; slight slopes in minor areas, and a couple *very confined* areas of actual terrain), Iowa (very gently rolling hills). Of places I've lived, only SoCal had meaningful slopes - and even there there were long many long routes of flat terrain as well.

Beyond places I've lived, I road tripped very extensively. From the south to the north in the Great Plains, the only place with significant contours is the Ozarks, and even there it's not that bad (they're not really mountains, just hills). Minor slopes in states around the northern Mississippi, but not too significant. The region is called the Great Plains for a reason, by the way. Flat all the way up to the eastern Rockies, which are 2/3rds of the way from the East Coast. Except in New England, there's a wide band across the Atlantic seaboard that's flat; the Appalachians are just a relatively small band interrupting coastal flatland's transition into interior plains flatland.

Even in regions that have mountains, there are long stretches of interstate with only mild slopes; the interstates are designed to avoid as much as possible going over rugged terrain. For example, the Appalachians are highly folded along a southwest/northeast axis. So I-81 is laid out to perfectly follow that axis so that it doesn't have to keep going over ridges. Meanwhile, interstates that have to go the other direction (such as I-64) take it perpendicular so that they're going over ridges for as short of a period as possible. With the Rockies, interstates either try to divert around the mountains (ex: I-80, I-40), or beeline through them for the first flatland (ex: I-70 beelining for Grand Junction).

The point is: while there certainly are lots of places where interstates have to climb significant grades, they are *by design* only a very small fraction of the total mileage of the US interstate system. And in most of the US don't exist at all, because there simply does not exist anything more than ever-so-gently-rolling hills (if that) in most of the US.
 
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(As for the aforementioned "dead horse": how many times have I mentioned, with heavy emphasis, that I was only talking about the article that claimed "diesel is dead" based on the 60mph peak speed number, and in that regard, only talking about that 60mph premise? Yet even right to the very end that fact seems not to have sunk in... :Þ)

Re, redundant battery packs / a battery pack for each motor: Battery packs are already redundant. Each brick in a typical pack has many dozen cells in parallel. Bricks are in series, but you can have multiple series' in parallel as well. That's doubly redundant. :)
 
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I'd like to see Tesla build out a test fleet of about 1000 Semis in 2018. These would be pre- and early production trucks that Tesla owns and operates. First you have shipping between GF1 and Fremont. Then you have shipping autos from Fremont to the most of North America. At this point, they could easily need 1000 to 2000 trucks.

Here's the benefit.
1. Gain 100M miles of road testing and fine tuning before releasing trucks to the public.
2. Ramp up production slowly out of public view.
3. Realize cost savings through electric trucking and semi-autonomous convoys.
4. Build out initial segments of Megachargers.
5. Gain public exposure from Tesla branded fleet on highways.

Additionally toward late 2018, Tesla could make limited test trucks available to major clients prior to general release. These could be test vehicles that already have 10k miles on them so that they are well known not to have any glaring embarrassing problems. Clients will want to operate test fleets of 5 to 25 for nearly a year before committing to large orders. So Tesla would do well to get a jump on this.

I'd like to see how many trucks Tesla can out on the road prior to 2019. Then from the very start of 2019, I'd like to see production rates of at least 1000/week.
 
Indeed, Tesla using Semis for their own internal needs to test them out seems really, really obvious. Think of how much material has to move to both Fremont and the Gigafactory, as well as from Gigafactory to Fremont. Might as well kill two birds with one stone. It'd basically be the freight equivalent of the "internal-only sales" that they started out Model 3s with.

As for external sales: I expect most freight operators' orders to start out small. Nobody is going to dive in head first; they're going to want to trial the vehicles. But if they like what they see, expect to see exponential sales growth over 2019.
 
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I'd like to see Tesla build out a test fleet of about 1000 Semis in 2018. These would be pre- and early production trucks that Tesla owns and operates. First you have shipping between GF1 and Fremont. Then you have shipping autos from Fremont to the most of North America. At this point, they could easily need 1000 to 2000 trucks.

Here's the benefit.
1. Gain 100M miles of road testing and fine tuning before releasing trucks to the public.
2. Ramp up production slowly out of public view.
3. Realize cost savings through electric trucking and semi-autonomous convoys.
4. Build out initial segments of Megachargers.
5. Gain public exposure from Tesla branded fleet on highways.

Additionally toward late 2018, Tesla could make limited test trucks available to major clients prior to general release. These could be test vehicles that already have 10k miles on them so that they are well known not to have any glaring embarrassing problems. Clients will want to operate test fleets of 5 to 25 for nearly a year before committing to large orders. So Tesla would do well to get a jump on this.

I'd like to see how many trucks Tesla can out on the road prior to 2019. Then from the very start of 2019, I'd like to see production rates of at least 1000/week.

I don't know how likely this is but it's a great idea. We know Tesla has already asked California and Nevada for permission to test autonomous semis, which we assume is for transporting good between GF1 and Fremont. I also think there is a good chance because Tesla wants to use it's open vehicles for as much as possible including a recent announcement of a converted model Xs in place of ranger trucks with special equipment for balancing wheels fitted into the X.

The problem is building 1000. As Elon had said, it's easy to build a few, it's extremely hard to migrate that to a production environment. Frankly you wouldn't want to build a 1000 without getting results from the first 25 then next 50 and so on, so maybe hand built is the best way for as many as a 1000. It would also help them refine the manufacturing process when they get to the point of more automation.

The only let down I have work the semi is that I really expected it to be a platform for dozens of vehicles and maybe this is still the plan. The front end is short enough and small enough to be adapted for use on many vehicles like work vans and hotel busses and so on. The nice thing is that you have no drive shaft so you can make a bus with a very low entry point and tons of room in the back door passengers. I am a bit surprised that there are no motors in the front wheels, would seem to be useful for higher gearing and for traction in bad weather.
 
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I am a fan of rail transport, but the comparison of truck-to-rail seems to miss the leg from railhead to customer. Trucks can go from manufacturer to customer, but rail needs at least one more leg (and often two) to connect Mfg to customer. A head-to-head comparison needs all legs.

I am very happy that Tesla keeps announcing more product lines. Rigs, pickups, roadsters, armor glass for windshileds and solar panels. Yea for them to have so many products to generate sales and cross-pollination between company entities. I just hope they have enough staff to staff each one of these actions, such that Model 3 (for example) does not get delayed by these other worthwhile tangents. If you are going to announce a product line, be prepared to support it without cannibalizing the other lines.
 
I have never been in the truck industry nor do I understand the economics of it therefore I was delighted to listen to an Expert of the industry who owns a small truck Company in Canada and make a reservation for a Semi right at the Semi event to be in front of the line.

What he explained in his specific use case it makes sense in terms of economics, safety, usability, charging versus gasstation, comfort and so on...

worth listening to:

Blubrry PowerPress Player
 
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His comments about "charging at home" at night make me wonder what the AC charger's going to be like. I'm thinking maybe 440V 3-phase / 200A?

He may hurt his aero (and if he's doing offroad it'll hurt his rolling drag), but he's only talking under 400km round trip (if I understand right), extremely slow speeds, and he's empty halfway. I'm sure he'll be fine.

I imagine his estimate of $250-300k as the sales price is probably about right. The battery will probably be something like $120k (assuming Tesla gets close to, but doesn't reach, their $100/kWh pack goal when they launch). Not sure what the 4x M3 motors cost, but probably pretty small compared to that. The rest is just standard tractor stuff.

His comments are really interesting, esp. about logging trucks. 100km into the bush, 100km back, then sitting around in the yard. I actually like this guy - he seems pretty insightful.

The more I think about it, the more I think there is to what we've just seen. Tesla for example showed its Unimog-style truck. But why stop there? They could make mining equipment, forestry equipment, basically anything. Partner with traditional manufacturers of the hardware for a particular industry; Tesla supplies the cab/powertrain and the manufacturer fits it out with the rest. No capital investment for Tesla, just more sales. And the cab can supply virtually limitless electrical power to the attached hardware, which is a new capability that they've never had before.
 
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That topo may is laughable. anyone who's ever driven I10 knows it's essentially flat from Palm Springs to to the Atlantic. Aside from the Ponoma climb it'd be flat from coast to coast you'll climb from about sea level in west Arizona and climb to 5,000ft over a hundred miles near Tucson.

Here's a better picture http://i.imgur.com/dESHdr2.jpg

And you'll notice that I10 snakes through the hills/mountains.

TOPO.jpg
 
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I'd like to see how many trucks Tesla can out on the road prior to 2019. Then from the very start of 2019, I'd like to see production rates of at least 1000/week.

There is no way Tesla is building 1,000 week. You're talking about 10X the batteries and 4x the number of motors, that alone will create a bottleneck with M3 ramp up. Not to mention that Class 8 truck sales are usually less than 300,000 units a year. That's ALL class 8 trucks to include dump trucks, garbage trucks, straight trucks, box trucks. And that's all of North America; US, Mexico, and Canada. No way is Tesla taking 20-30% of the US truck market anytime soon, let alone in 2019.
 
No way is Tesla taking 20-30% of the US truck market anytime soon, let alone in 2019.
Now, be careful with these projections of market share.
There is this company that almost stole whole premium sport sedan market.

Why would you buy a new diesel truck in 2019 if you can get an electric one in 2020?
Diesel truck market will shrink if electric semi looks promising enough.