Here we discuss and post interesting prediction markets related to Tesla.
The market is giving 68% that Elon will get most of his compensation package. Seems a bit low to me, guess we need to start to consider the 1/3 likelihood of this not happening.
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43% that Tesla will move to Texas, guess there is still a lot of uncertainty
manifold.markets
34% that the strike in Sweden will spread to any other country in 2024, that's nice.
manifold.markets
24% of >500k cars in Q1 2024. Not bad.
manifold.markets
The market is giving 68% that Elon will get most of his compensation package. Seems a bit low to me, guess we need to start to consider the 1/3 likelihood of this not happening.
Will Elon Musk get more than half of his 2018 $55 billion Tesla pay package
71% chance. In a shareholder lawsuit, a Delaware judge struck down Elon Musk’s 2018 $55 billion dollar pay package. This will resolve true if the ruling is overturned on appeal and Elon keeps the original package, or if after the lawsuit is resolved the board/shareholders of Tesla approve a...
43% that Tesla will move to Texas, guess there is still a lot of uncertainty
Will Tesla (TSLA) Shareholders' vote result in incorporation in Texas (before the end of this year's annual meeting)
43% chance. https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/02/01/musk-says-tesla-will-hold-shareholder-vote-immediately-to-move-companys-incorporation-to-texas/?sh=59cdb3657c9b resolves YES when the incorporation in Texas is legally certain after initial votes, NO otherwise If there's no vote...
34% that the strike in Sweden will spread to any other country in 2024, that's nice.
Will the Tesla union strike in Sweden spread to at least one other EU country by the end of 2024?
30% chance. This market predicts if the union strike against Tesla in Sweden will inspire similar strikes in at least one other EU country by December 31, 2024. Resolution will depend on verified reports of strikes against Tesla by unions in other members of the European Union. For...
24% of >500k cars in Q1 2024. Not bad.
Will Tesla Vehicle production Q1 2024 exceed 500,000?
24% chance. Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends last six quarters: Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 365923 Q4 2022...
