Tesla Full Self Driving Availability Prediction

[cwerdna]

^^^
The above mentions showrooms in 2020. The above also gives no timeline about level 4.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I just want a very capable autopilot. FSD sounds like a pipe dream to me. Like landing rockets vertically a few years ago would have sounded. Elon can see a lot deeper than you guys can. Just because he's late doesn't mean he can't see a clear enough path to get there. I don't believe he can make my car FSD able either, but then again I'm not very smart or optimistic.

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

If Porsche is planning to launch Level 4 in 2019. Lets hope Tesla is ready before them

Porsche's all-electric rival to the Tesla Model S is scheduled to go on sale in 2019 and will spawn multiple variants

Blume also confirmed that Porsche plans for the Taycan to have Level 4 autonomous driving technology (self-driving in nearly all situations, with driver attention not required), but denied that it would allow fully autonomous driving over longer distances. “There are situations in traffic jams where you will be able to read a newspaper, but our customers take pleasure from driving and this will remain,” he said.

Porsche Taycan name confirmed for production version of Mission E | Autocar

Anyone can plan for anything - actually doing it is another story. No way Porsche has Level 4 autonomous driving in 2019.

Also, what does the article mean that the Taycan “[won’t] allow fully autonomous driving over longer distances?” I mean, I do like driving sometimes, but is the Porsche going to get testy and refuse to be autonomous if you don’t drive it enough?

 

[Julie's MS]

Maybe with some help from Audi they will launch something sooner then later. Time will tell.

Audi Newsroom

The History of Audi piloted driving

• In 2005, Audi and Stanford University were fastest to complete a 150-mile course, winning that year’s DARPA Grand Challenge for automated vehicles.
• In 2009, an Audi TTS sets the world speed record for automated vehicles with a speed of 210 km/h (130.5 mph).
• In 2010, an Audi TTS climbs Pikes Peak without a driver.
• In 2013, Audi is the first carmaker to test piloted driving under real conditions in Nevada, and the first OEM to receive a Nevada autonomous driving license.
• In 2014, the U.S. states California and Florida follow; Audi is the first company to gain California permit for testing. At Hockenheimring speedway, the Audi RS 7 piloted driving concept completed a lap at racing speed without a driver present.
• In 2015, Audi was the first company to allow non-engineers in the driver’s seat of a car equipped with “Highway Pilot” technology on a 566-mile test drive from Silicon Valley, California to CES in Las Vegas, Nevada.
• In 2016, Audi brought Level 2 automation to the road with “Traffic Jam Assist” feature available on the 2017 Audi A4 and Q7 allows for 15-second intervals of hands-off driving at slower speeds. The driver must constantly be alert and aware, and intervene immediately as needed.
• In 2017 at CES, Audi announced a partnership with NVIDIA to use artificial intelligence to deliver highly automated vehicles starting in 2020 and showcased deep learning advancements with an Audi Q7 piloted driving concept vehicle.
• In 2017 at the Audi Summit in Barcelona, Audi presented its Audi AI technology as well as the debut of the Audi A8 – a brand exhibition that showcased new concepts for piloted driving.
• In 2017 at IAA, Audi double world premiered two concept cars, the Audi Aicon and Audi Elaine – that showed how the brand intends to further develop automated driving.

Volkswagen Group - Wikipedia

Volkswagen Group sells passenger cars under the Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen marques; motorcycles under the Ducati brand; and commercial vehicles under the marques MAN, Scania, and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles.
Headquarters‎: ‎Wolfsburg, Germany
Revenue‎: ‎€230.682 billion (2017)
Net income‎: ‎€11.638 billion (2017)
Production output‎: ‎10,875 thousand (2017)

 

[cwerdna]

Maybe with some help from Audi they will launch something sooner then later. Time will tell.

Audi Newsroom

The History of Audi piloted driving

• In 2005, Audi and Stanford University were fastest to complete a 150-mile course, winning that year’s DARPA Grand Challenge for automated vehicles.
  

That's odd that Audi would take credit for that above. I'd watched NOVA | The Great Robot Race | PBS and recall the vehicle Stanley (DARPA Grand Challenge (2005) - Wikipedia). It wasn't an Audi, but rather a VW Touareg. (Yeah, yeah, know Audi is owned by VW AG). I've never heard of any involvement by Audi or VW in the development of software used to win that race.

The professor, Sebastian Thrun was at Google working on their self-driving car program for years. Now that's renamed to Waymo.

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

Maybe with some help from Audi they will launch something sooner then later. Time will tell.

Audi Newsroom

The History of Audi piloted driving

• In 2005, Audi and Stanford University were fastest to complete a 150-mile course, winning that year’s DARPA Grand Challenge for automated vehicles.
• In 2009, an Audi TTS sets the world speed record for automated vehicles with a speed of 210 km/h (130.5 mph).
• In 2010, an Audi TTS climbs Pikes Peak without a driver.
• In 2013, Audi is the first carmaker to test piloted driving under real conditions in Nevada, and the first OEM to receive a Nevada autonomous driving license.
• In 2014, the U.S. states California and Florida follow; Audi is the first company to gain California permit for testing. At Hockenheimring speedway, the Audi RS 7 piloted driving concept completed a lap at racing speed without a driver present.
• In 2015, Audi was the first company to allow non-engineers in the driver’s seat of a car equipped with “Highway Pilot” technology on a 566-mile test drive from Silicon Valley, California to CES in Las Vegas, Nevada.
• In 2016, Audi brought Level 2 automation to the road with “Traffic Jam Assist” feature available on the 2017 Audi A4 and Q7 allows for 15-second intervals of hands-off driving at slower speeds. The driver must constantly be alert and aware, and intervene immediately as needed.
• In 2017 at CES, Audi announced a partnership with NVIDIA to use artificial intelligence to deliver highly automated vehicles starting in 2020 and showcased deep learning advancements with an Audi Q7 piloted driving concept vehicle.
• In 2017 at the Audi Summit in Barcelona, Audi presented its Audi AI technology as well as the debut of the Audi A8 – a brand exhibition that showcased new concepts for piloted driving.
• In 2017 at IAA, Audi double world premiered two concept cars, the Audi Aicon and Audi Elaine – that showed how the brand intends to further develop automated driving.

Volkswagen Group - Wikipedia

Volkswagen Group sells passenger cars under the Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen marques; motorcycles under the Ducati brand; and commercial vehicles under the marques MAN, Scania, and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles.
Headquarters‎: ‎Wolfsburg, Germany
Revenue‎: ‎€230.682 billion (2017)
Net income‎: ‎€11.638 billion (2017)
Production output‎: ‎10,875 thousand (2017)

Maybe, but even Audi doesn’t even claim that they will make it to Level 4 by 2019. From that same Audi Newroom:
“In 2020-2021, Audi will introduce a Level 4 ‘Highway Pilot’ feature...”

Audi may not be on Elon time but that they bracket a two-year period makes them sound more aspirational than committal.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I think the two who voted for 2018 also bought the two SpaceX tickets to go around the moon in 2018.

 

[VikH]

Elon just tweeted FSD features coming in V9 in August. He didn't say which year though...

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

I’m guessing the new FSD features he alludes to for August are Tesla’s answer to Audi’s Traffic Jam Pilot. Essentially would let you run without any nags under limited conditions on divided highways until the car “gives up” (Level 3). Maybe even tie into the nav system for picking onramps and offramps. Anyone else have a guess?

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I’m guessing the new FSD features he alludes to for August are Tesla’s answer to Audi’s Traffic Jam Pilot. Essentially would let you run without any nags under limited conditions on divided highways until the car “gives up” (Level 3). Maybe even tie into the nav system for picking onramps and offramps. Anyone else have a guess?

That's an interesting thought. I had always figured FSD would be more for local streets and EAP was more for highways...but if they increase the EAP nags enough and then have a no-nag FSD, it might encourage a lot more to add FSD. However, on-ramp to off-ramp should still be allowed via EAP only and it would need to access navigation to know which interchanges to take.

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

That's an interesting thought. I had always figured FSD would be more for local streets and EAP was more for highways...but if they increase the EAP nags enough and then have a no-nag FSD, it might encourage a lot more to add FSD. However, on-ramp to off-ramp should still be allowed via EAP only and it would need to access navigation to know which interchanges to take.

To expand on this idea, maybe EAP will eventually become a system that works on straightaways plus ramps, whereas FSD will allow full nav. For example, when the capability becomes available, it’s hard to see Tesla not stopping at lights or stop signs under EAP since that could be considered a safety issue.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

To expand on this idea, maybe EAP will eventually become a system that works on straightaways plus ramps, whereas FSD will allow full nav. For example, when the capability becomes available, it’s hard to see Tesla not stopping at lights or stop signs under EAP since that could be considered a safety issue.

I think originally AP and EAP were for highway use but people started using it on local roads. Perhaps they will implement more geofences to only allow EAP on roads without traffic signals, stop signs, etc. whereas FSD could be enabled nearly anywhere.

 

[D3xDt3Reaction]

I think originally AP and EAP were for highway use but people started using it on local roads. Perhaps they will implement more geofences to only allow EAP on roads without traffic signals, stop signs, etc. whereas FSD could be enabled nearly anywhere.

Maybe, but that would be a tough pill to swallow for those who do use EAP on local roads now. No one likes a software update that removes functionality.

 

[Peteski]

I voted for 2025 or later, but I expect bits of it will arrive much sooner. But true FSD is years away. EAP is still very much a work in progress.