Tesla Fremont Gen 3 Production

[electracity]

I'm perplexed at how Fremont can maintain the current model 3 rate and also build a lot of model Y. I'm curious what people assume is the facilities total capacity in 2021. If the expectation is for a high number of total cars what changes will Tesla make to achieve a great increase in capacity? (Note: I'm not looking at forecasting 2021 sales, just production capacity)

 

[srs5694]

Tesla's Fremont factory used to belong to NUMMI, a joint venture between GM and Toyota to produce Toyotas and Toyotas badged as GM vehicles. At that time, for two or three decades starting in the 1980s, the plant had a theoretical maximum capacity of 500,000 vehicles per year, but the maximum it achieved during that period was about 430,000. This is covered in more detail in this Business Insider article. (The article is from 2017 and is a bit "down" on Tesla, but AFAIK its statements about the plant's NUMMI-era capacity are correct.) Thus, based solely on the old NUMMI capacity, a production of 400,000 to 500,000 per year is entirely plausible. That said, it could be higher or lower than that because building an EV is a bit different than building an ICE vehicle, because Tesla and NUMMI are likely doing things differently (different amounts of components built on- vs. off-site, for instance), and because Tesla has moved some manufacturing into its (in)famous "tent."

Another issue in the question of increasing production with the future introduction of the Model Y is Gigafactory 3. With much Chinese production moved to China, Tesla may be able to cut back on Model 3 production at Fremont, produce as many or more Model 3s worldwide, and produce more cars total worldwide. Tesla's also talking about an assembly line in Europe, which will have similar effects, although probably not by early 2021.

 

[p4594spa]

The other big limiter is battery availability. You may have noticed that the number of cars/quarter is stabilized. Panasonic has refused to do anymore investment at Gigafactory because they are losing money. Until they start getting batteries out of their Maxwell Tech investment, I don't see how they can produce more than about 300,000 cars a year out of Fremont

 

[electracity]

The other big limiter is battery availability. You may have noticed that the number of cars/quarter is stabilized. Panasonic has refused to do anymore investment at Gigafactory because they are losing money. Until they start getting batteries out of their Maxwell Tech investment, I don't see how they can produce more than about 300,000 cars a year out of Fremont

I interpret current production as supply and demand being in balance. We are the end of tax incentive rush now in the U.S., but before the last month or so it was easy to buy an inventory car.
So perhaps with the shift to high margin cars with Y production Tesla and Panasonic will find a way to make more batteries.
Presumably Panasonic has met its GF contract obligations but is unwilling to incur increased cost per cell to raise production.

 

[ewoodrick]

I here that they are adding yet another production line.

 

[p4594spa]

That's true, but if you can't get more batteries, it isn't going add to total capacity, it would just change the mix of cars they can build