Tesla autopilot HW3

[CK_Stuggi]

Considering the above approach to be correct, it would be interesting to see how significant the progress differs between markets based on the fleet sizes.
As in how big progress differences are between the US, China and Europe.
I know there are additional factors at play (different jurisdictions in Europe using different road marking systems, plus local fleet size differences), but I'm curious nonetheless.

 

[renim]

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d9a84b7d-e9a8-4a09-a5b8-eeca5477ace5/Waymo.pdf

Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2018

Tesla does not subject themselves to Californian oversight. So its not possible to authenticatly compare them to others (ie waymo etc)

 

[rnortman]

I thought the video in this link courtesy of @SPadival was on point for every FSD thread on TMC:

S Padival on Twitter

Great, Elon is a visionary, being a visionary is hard, blah blah blah whatever. I did not give Tesla almost $100k and receive TSLA stock in exchange. I gave Tesla that money expecting to receive what they were selling me. It is quite clear that neither I nor anybody else will receive what they sold us. This is different from standing by the sidelines and criticizing. I'm not a bystander; I am an active participant in this fiasco, and it's my money that Elon is spending. I have a right to be annoyed. Doubly so when they screw up basic cruise control in my paid-for car in pursuit of "self driving" features that future customers may benefit from, but I never will: "Fleet Speed" (mis-)feature in 2019.8.6+

 

[Bet TSLA]

I have a right to be annoyed.

Absolutely. You even have the right to annoy everybody else by constantly announcing how you don't like the fact that your car changes out from under you. But the truth is that Tesla's software updates are just about the best thing about the car. Sure, progress often looks like two steps forward and one step back. And if you never notice anything other than the steps back then you will be unhappy.

You should sell your Tesla and buy something safer for you. Owning a car that makes you unhappy is a poor life choice.

 

[CarlK]

Considering the above approach to be correct, it would be interesting to see how significant the progress differs between markets based on the fleet sizes.
As in how big progress differences are between the US, China and Europe.
I know there are additional factors at play (different jurisdictions in Europe using different road marking systems, plus local fleet size differences), but I'm curious nonetheless.

Tesla's approach is universal. It should be the same anywhere long as there are fleets running in that particular geographic area to learn any possible situations in there.

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d9a84b7d-e9a8-4a09-a5b8-eeca5477ace5/Waymo.pdf

Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2018

Tesla does not subject themselves to Californian oversight. So its not possible to authenticatly compare them to others (ie waymo etc)

CA DMV only requires cars running in autonomous mode to report disengagement numbers. Tesla is the only car company that does not run an autonomous test fleet. It uses regular cars running in shadow mode to do machined learning. BTW what are on those reports do not necessary mean each car's autonomous capability. The system can easily be gamed to give you a good number by running a fleet repeatedly on a familiar route. I suspect at least some of those companies do that in order to impress customers or investors.

 

[CarlK]

Finally something we've been waiting for, Waymo's response which turned out to be a non-repsonse. The defense is Lidar as a sensor is more accurate which everyone knew already. The part of deep learning to give you even better accuracy was, I belive deliberately, not acknowledged. A pretty lame and defensive response that should worry Waymo believers imo.

Waymo defends laser sensors after Elon Musk drags them

 

[iTech]

Finally something we've been waiting for, Waymo's response which turned out to be a non-repsonse. The defense is Lidar as a sensor is more accurate which everyone knew already. The part of deep learning to give you even better accuracy was, I belive deliberately, not acknowledged. A pretty lame and defensive response that should worry Waymo believers imo.

Waymo defends laser sensors after Elon Musk drags them

You criticize Waymo's non-response, but Elon's non-responses are..?

 

[renim]

I once had a work colleague, who was part of a team that made a preliminary proposal for a stadium development, in another hemisphere.

Since the potential customer was not paying for preliminary proposals, it was brief and only back of envelope type engineering. Somebody else won that contract.

That somebody else had a fatality.

My colleague was having to demonstrate to the judge that we had nothing to do with this. Our design was not chosen, our design was not funded. We were located at the opposite end of the globe...

When the self driving cars finally have a fatality (without a supervisor driver). The lawyers are going to chase down everyone, even those without involvement.

You can guarantee it, mobileeye and nvidia will both be called to any driverless Tesla fatality.
Tesla will be called to any driverless Waymo fatality.
The list goes on and on and on.

 

[CK_Stuggi]

Tesla's approach is universal. It should be the same anywhere long as there are fleets running in that particular geographic area to learn any possible situations in there.

That's exactly what I'm wondering, what's the critical fleet size. Two Teslas in a country with horse carts on the roads will have different results from a country with hundreds of thousands of Teslas and no horse carts.

Europe doesn't even have basic NoA yet, 6 months after the US. Model 3s in Germany have it, S/X don't why might that be? What about Norway, Netherlands, France?
If it's not fleet size, what is it?
Can't be regulation, because Europe has centralized regulation and there's no need to obtain permission for extending Level 2 functionality.

 

[EVNow]

That's exactly what I'm wondering, what's the critical fleet size. Two Teslas in a country with horse carts on the roads will have different results from a country with hundreds of thousands of Teslas and no horse carts.

Europe doesn't even have basic NoA yet, 6 months after the US. Model 3s in Germany have it, S/X don't why might that be? What about Norway, Netherlands, France?
If it's not fleet size, what is it?
Can't be regulation, because Europe has centralized regulation and there's no need to obtain permission for extending Level 2 functionality.

They still have to do geo-specific heuristics and they may need to go geo-specific training as well. I won't be surprised if the primary focus now is to get to FC (basically NOA on city streets) and there is a small team working on internationalizing NOA on freeways.

 

[CK_Stuggi]

Also, what might be the reason for NoA being Model 3 only in Germany, no matter if S/X are AP2 or 2.5?

 

[EVNow]

Also, what might be the reason for NoA being Model 3 only in Germany, no matter if S/X are AP2 or 2.5?

No idea.

 

[OPRCE]

Also, what might be the reason for NoA being Model 3 only in Germany, no matter if S/X are AP2 or 2.5?

Musk's determination to convince early-adopters that they bought the wrong car to keep him in business?

 

[sjokomelk]

Also, what might be the reason for NoA being Model 3 only in Germany, no matter if S/X are AP2 or 2.5?

Type approval for Autopilot in Model 3 for Europe included NoA. Autopilot wasn't available in the cars in the beginning since the type approval was missing.
Model S and X have an old type approval for Autopilot that doesn't include NoA. Tesla need to apply for a new type approval that includes NoA, and that takes time.

 

[CK_Stuggi]

Do you have any legal text to back up that type approval requirement? AFAIK any L2 functionality does not require type approval, because the cars specifications as described in the original type approval haven't changed. Basis for that approval requirement is the Vienna protocol.
Also since type approval in the EU is EU-wide, why would NoA then be limited to Model 3s in Germany (as is the case IIUC)?

I can't help, with many people writing regulation was required, all being unable to provide any law or regulation proving there is any regulatory approval required for a Level 2 ADAS.

 

[sjokomelk]

Model 3 has a different type approval than Model S and Model X. That is why only Model 3 has NoA so far. Same all over Europe.
That is also why Model 3 didn't have Autopilot in the first demo cars.

My guess is that auto lane change is such a big change from Autopilot only being a lane keep assist system, so all the safety aspects have to be reviewed again.

 

[OPRCE]

Do you have any legal text to back up that type approval requirement? AFAIK any L2 functionality does not require type approval, because the cars specifications as described in the original type approval haven't changed. Basis for that approval requirement is the Vienna protocol.
Also since type approval in the EU is EU-wide, why would NoA then be limited to Model 3s in Germany (as is the case IIUC)?

I can't help, with many people writing regulation was required, all being unable to provide any law or regulation proving there is any regulatory approval required for a Level 2 ADAS.

I thought type approval deals with mandated requirements such as emissions standards, crash testing, lights conformity, trailer hitch strength, mud-flaps, etc., but if AP was ever approved for S/X as a L2 ADAS system, why would NoAP need any new approval while still under the same regime where the driver remains legally responsible for all movements of the vehicle?

I would also like to see the relevant legal texts if anyone can dig 'em up.

That is why only Model 3 has NoA so far. Same all over Europe.

But M3 does not have NoAP all over EU, so this geographical limit to a few countries must be down to Tesla alone.

Is there any evidence that regulators in Europe have actually tested AP at any stage to determine if it is safe, and if so then where is their report?

 

[CK_Stuggi]

I only found this;
"The manufacturer makes available about a dozen or more pre-production cars that are equal to the final product. These prototypes are used to test compliance with EU safety rules (installation of lights, braking performance, stability control, crash tests with dummies), noise and emissions limits as well as production requirements (of individual parts and components, such as seats or steering wheel airbags). If all relevant requirements are met, the national authority delivers an EU vehicle type approval to the manufacturer authorising the sale of the vehicle type in the EU."

Nothing regarding assistance systems, as a driver-supervised is not safety relevant beyond the drivers own driving capability, which isn't a safety relevant measure either. I'd love to see a type approval of a Model 3 where the full extent of approved AP functionality is explicitly stated.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say you're wrong; I just want some sort of proof, because nobody so far was able to cite or display the actual regulation and the proof of approval.
And last I checked, laws and regulations governing us are public, so they shouldnt be hard to present.

 

[sjokomelk]

But M3 does not have NoAP all over EU, so this geographical limit to a few countries must be down to Tesla alone.

Same reason it doesn't work all over the US - missing/incomplete map data needed for NoA.

 

[OPRCE]

Same reason it doesn't work all over the US - missing/incomplete map data needed for NoA.

This sounds increasingly like a string of suppositions presented as fact.