Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
#63
Cosmacelf said:
If Teslabot can replace human labor … let’s use round numbers, a factory worker costs $100K/yr. So the utility of a Teslabot is at least $500K. And Tesla will be able to make it for around $10K. Now that’s some real margins!! And I suspect Tesla will simply rent them out at $10/hr. So immediate huge market. Timeline? Based on what I saw in their latest video, I suspect we’ll see a Teslabot doing useful work inside a Tesla factory within a year.
Click to expand...
 
  • Like
Reactions: CarlS and JusRelax
#64
Buckminster said:
Update to my target TSLA valuation:

Bot
$25k profit per bot per annum (50% of robotaxi but will rise significantly post 2030)
200 million bots in fleet in 2030 (4x autos as significantly simpler - smaller battery etc. - there are 728m iPhones in the world)
P/E ratio of 50
25*200*50=$250T

Non bot
Remains $125T

Total = $375T
Click to expand...
Ignore the Twitter post - wrong thread.

So my $375T valuation in 2030 is still crazy optimistic. However, what is now increasingly obvious is less crazy folk might say that longer term my inputs are a little pessimistic.

I have profit for boy at $25k per annum. @Cosmacelf is suggesting a utility of $500k per annum. 20x although profit versus utility.

I have 200m boys in fleet. Elon mentioned a TAM of up to 20bn. 100x although assumes no competition.

That is a combined 2000x on my inputs…

Not sure the world is ready for my 2040 projections just yet but clearly it would top one quadrillion. Quite conservative really. P/E ratio would come down. World gdp would increase massively and encompass Martian/space economies.
 
  • Like
  • Love
  • Informative
Reactions: Christine69420, Krugerrand, RabidYak and 5 others
#65
Krugerrand said:
No healthcare benefits
No worker’s compensation
No PTO or FTO, sick leave, paternity leave, lateness
No freebies like coffee, cola, juice, snack foods
No uniforms (t-shirts, hats etc…)
No promotions and thus higher salaries
Smaller parking lots
Smaller cafeterias
Fewer bathrooms and lesser other employee spaces (locker room, showers, workout room, entertainment room)
Smaller HR department
Smaller payroll department

Etc…

People suck AND are expensive
Click to expand...
 
  • Like
Reactions: CarlS
#68
Cosmacelf said:
So, assuming Jordan’s deep dive into lithium mining is correct, Tesla has a constraint against growing 50% YoY, right?

Not so fast. If you look at Tesla 50% YoY revenue growth (which is what matters for stock price) as opposed to unit vehicle growth, Tesla has quite a few revenue options even with lithium supply constraints.

First, the $25K car will use less lithium (smaller battery), but that decreases revenue, but then see below.

Second, Teslabot. IF Tesla pulls off humanoid robot use cases, Teslabot is a $500K value machine which uses a tiny amount of lithium (it’s battery pack will be on the order of 10 kWh). Tesla will rent these out for $10/hr and make tons of revenue using very little lithium per revenue dollar.

Third, of course, is robotaxi. The same amount of lithium per vehicle will now generate 2x or 5x or whatever revenue since Tesla will get taxi revenue.

If I’m correct, this is all classic Elon. He sees an unavoidable bottleneck in 3-5 years and comes up with a way to keep growing even with that unavoidable constraint. He did it brilliantly with SpaceX (he was going to hit a revenue ceiling with launches, so he created Starlink which uses tons more launch and pays for itself).

So, while Jordan’s lithium forecast may very well be right, Tesla will keep growing fast despite it.
Click to expand...
$10/hr for bit is 2 or 3x my $25k per annum bot rental in my model.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CarlS
#69
Buckminster said:
$10/hr for bit is 2 or 3x my $25k per annum bot rental in my model.
Click to expand...
Correct. Accounting for downtime, I’d use 2x. You price these things for what they’re worth to the market, not some markup over their cost. Of course, if Tesla gets competition, then the price will come down. So model it at 2x your model initially but decline it over time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RabidYak, CarlS and Buckminster
#73
Amateurs...
dhanson865 said:
Now if we are looking for the bull version of Gordon Johnson the freshest candidate is AlphiQuant, or maybe someone in the $10,000+ club in the list below:

View attachment 961856

View attachment 961855
View attachment 961857
Click to expand...
These all appear to be constrained by CAGR at ~50%. That acknowledges 50% growth in vehicles but not bots building bots or annual subscriptions that could exceed the cost of the product several times over.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UkNorthampton
#74
Buckminster said:
Amateurs...

These all appear to be constrained by CAGR at ~50%. That acknowledges 50% growth in vehicles but not bots building bots or annual subscriptions that could exceed the cost of the product several times over.
Click to expand...
Even at historical rates of CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), it will be mind-bending. If we get higher, on products which are much simpler to create than cars, then the CAGR could be so much higher. I can't think of anything much harder to build/scale than cars except Spacecraft, Ships & Aircraft. Robots & energy should be much easier to scale, software even more so.

Share price for 50-58% CAGR to 2030 highlighted. The multiple can be argued with, but if Tesla is still growing at 50+% then multiples can be high/higher depending on what else is offering this kind of growth. Probably nothing will compare to Tesla if you factor in the consistency as well.

1691052940137.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: CarlS and Christine69420
#75
UkNorthampton said:
Even at historical rates of CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), it will be mind-bending. If we get higher, on products which are much simpler to create than cars, then the CAGR could be so much higher. I can't think of anything much harder to build/scale than cars except Spacecraft, Ships & Aircraft. Robots & energy should be much easier to scale, software even more so.

Share price for 50-58% CAGR to 2030 highlighted. The multiple can be argued with, but if Tesla is still growing at 50+% then multiples can be high/higher depending on what else is offering this kind of growth. Probably nothing will compare to Tesla if you factor in the consistency as well.

View attachment 961888
Click to expand...
I haven't really thought in terms of CAGR much but if I did:
Year one Tesla sell 2 cars for $50k each (profit $20k)
Year two Tesla sell 3 cars for $50k each (profit $30k)
50% CAGR

Year one Tesla loan (Robotaxi etc) 2 cars for $50k each (profit $20k)
Year two Tesla loan 3 cars (plus 2) for $50k each (profit $30k+$100k=$130k)
160% CAGR
 
  • Like
Reactions: UkNorthampton and CarlS
#77
Buckminster said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1688895862913613824
Value of Optimus and FSD car combo is huge. My model assumes $75k per annum. 7 days a week, 24 hours a day minus charging.
Click to expand...
According to replies...

To become a driver, you need years in other positions in depots (hubs). Not sure if you get nominated as a driver based on employer or union recommendation/veto.

Bots can do many of the depot jobs as well. I have considered that Tesla could just take over/create a distribution network. Probably not their style though.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buckminster
#78
UkNorthampton said:
Bots can do many of the depot jobs as well. I have considered that Tesla could just take over/create a distribution network. Probably not their style though.
Click to expand...
A general distribution network is not part of the mission statement I guess, though one could make the case for it.

However, creating a distribution network to aid the transportation of goods within the Tesla supply chain could be an effort I see Tesla sinking its teeth in. Tesla tries to streamline the logistics of its supply chain as much as possible so why not take on logistics/part centers with bots when regular (current tech) automation is insufficient?

The potential of Optimus truly boggles the mind, given it works as intended and is sufficiently "intelligent". (FSD also, but Optimus even more so IMO)
 
  • Like
  • Informative
Reactions: CarlS, UkNorthampton and Buckminster
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Back
Blog
New
Forum list
Marketplace
Menu