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I'm sure there will be many experts on logistics on the blogs who will point out every mistake Tesla have and will make along the way, just like those experts on design, engineering, manufacturing, etc.
My main concern is that initial quality issues on early units may not be addressed as well as they were for S/X. When the ramp happens this quickly, early issues may be seen in much larger numbers than Tesla is used to. They may also over-focus on deliveries of newer units instead of cleanup. Perhaps the expanded ranger programs can help with this.
 
My main concern is that initial quality issues on early units may not be addressed as well as they were for S/X. When the ramp happens this quickly, early issues may be seen in much larger numbers than Tesla is used to. They may also over-focus on deliveries of newer units instead of cleanup. Perhaps the expanded ranger programs can help with this.
In my experience in factory production, the pace of trouble-shooting is usually dependent on the pace of production. Identifying issues such as production variability requires data, and verifying fixes requires data. You can only debug if you're making the product. People tend to think "Tesla can only make thousands of cars when they fix the problem". The way I look at it, is that the sooner Tesla makes the 1st few thousands of cars, they sooner these 1000s of cars will enable Tesla to fix any potential issues. So I'm encouraged to see them aiming for 1500 in Sep. Compared with MX, where launch was end of Sep, and delivery of 1000s of cars didn't happen until Jan, this is a much better pace, and promising sign that Tesla can get the production running smoothly soon.
 
Tesla brought the production online 2 weeks ahead of schedule, at the beginning of July, and now they are "hopefully only 4-6 months behind"? I don't understand the logic

Well, they still need to extensively test the cars. They will do that with the first employee cars. Then they need to correct the issues they find.

Tesla still struggles with low volume manufacturing. There's no reason to believe that they will have an easy time running a standard car plant. Tesla has been able to achieve 50% YOY growth, that's probably the most rational metric to predict the production ramp.
 
In my experience in factory production, the pace of trouble-shooting is usually dependent on the pace of production. Identifying issues such as production variability requires data, and verifying fixes requires data. You can only debug if you're making the product. People tend to think "Tesla can only make thousands of cars when they fix the problem". The way I look at it, is that the sooner Tesla makes the 1st few thousands of cars, they sooner these 1000s of cars will enable Tesla to fix any potential issues. So I'm encouraged to see them aiming for 1500 in Sep. Compared with MX, where launch was end of Sep, and delivery of 1000s of cars didn't happen until Jan, this is a much better pace, and promising sign that Tesla can get the production running smoothly soon.

Agreed. That's my worry. New "improved" vehicles coming off the line will mean early defects might not get attention. It's kind of a good problem to have for everyone after the first few thousand. Just so long as the early birds get their cars fixed in a timely manner, that's the best we can hope for.
 
Agreed. That's my worry. New "improved" vehicles coming off the line will mean early defects might not get attention. It's kind of a good problem to have for everyone after the first few thousand. Just so long as the early birds get their cars fixed in a timely manner, that's the best we can hope for.

If almost all the cars are owned by Fremont employees a mass fix can be handled relatively easily. Part of the secret secret master plan. Easy to inspect cars too while employees are at work.
 
want AWD for Seattle, and especially for traveling over the central WA mountain passes in the winter months, but not at the risk of missing out on the full tax credit.

trusting that a RWD 3 will be able to handle the 2-3 days of snow we get in the city every year, and 3-4 trips across the passes we take. We've done okay thus far in FWD Hondas/Acuras.
 
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Hopefully "handover party" also includes the final release and all the details. I don't think we'll see the configurator open to non employees until September at the earliest but I hope we get everything else on the 28th.
In the Q&A during the last stockholder meeting, Elon said the configurator would open with first deliveries, so July 28th.

We will also apparently get a timeline for the different options but nothing was said about option pricing.
 
I don't know about AWD for Cali, but agree with performance. I think a lot of folks will forgo AWD to get it quicker where it never snows.

The purchasing behavior of those people who stood in line may be different than those who reserved online. I'm an online reservist and have no interest in a basic car. Plus I want you guys to work out the bugs.

The key question is "Have you owned a boat?" Those of us who have previously owned boats know to calm the hell down when it comes to vehicle purchases.
 
Didn't most of the people during the visit say people were all over the place working like crazy on the robots?

So this is all speculation ... not fact. It was being stated as though it was fact.
I don't understand your point. All I said was that people that were there a month ago said the line was not completed and it was still being worked on. That was in response to you questioning what they'd been doing for the last month. I don't know what speculation you're referring to.
 
I don't understand your point. All I said was that people that were there a month ago said the line was not completed and it was still being worked on. That was in response to you questioning what they'd been doing for the last month. I don't know what speculation you're referring to.
Let me be clearer. The same people SAID that there were mobs of people installing the robots and production line. From the 1st week in June to the last week in July...they could finish.

If this is all a game of speculation, I would like to speculate on the positive side if the argument and say that they will finish the production line.
 
Let me be clearer. The same people SAID that there were mobs of people installing the robots and production line. From the 1st week in June to the last week in July...they could finish.

If this is all a game of speculation, I would like to speculate on the positive side if the argument and say that they will finish the production line.
I am prone to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt. Still, two weeks ago there was no evidence of a completed installation of robots and other gear needed for the M3 line. They could be doing a fair amount of hand work at low volumes, but rampup will demand all those robots installed and working. I have no idea how quickly they can do all that but I think it is more prudent to expect 2018 as the blowout year last half of 2017 to be well below our dreams. FWIW, I expect my Florida M3 sometime mid-2018.

I remain very long TSLA and will endure the vary volatile remainder of 2017.
 
Heh, it fixes the parking problem if employee cars are inside for QA checks instead of in the front parking lot. :)

I presume at both Fremont and Hawthorne they will set up a delivery/service center in a warehouse and shuttle employees to the plants.

Employees not owning a Tesla almost have to buy a model 3, as anyone who has worked for a car manufacturer quickly learns. Although the non-union blue collar employee perhaps face less pressure. The UAW doesn't put up with that nonsense.
 
the whole "ahead schedule" thing is laughable.
When your initial timeline was "late 2017" and then you set an "impossible deadline" for suppliers as July 1st, 2017. Which even Elon thought was impossible a year ago. Now, they are ready to start production in early July instead of late 2017 and you say the ahead of schedule thing is laughable?o_O

You are forgetting how many times the timeline has been moved up.

Here's a quote from an article in 2016:
Musk is "fairly confident" that deliveries will begin by the end of 2017