SolarCity (SCTY)

[jhm]

Jhm, I'm sure you know this, but the escalator is optional. It is not required for a lease or ppa. People choose between 0% - 2.9%. It's all sliding net present value calculation. People choose what $/kWh they want along the slide. After all is said and done, the average escalator is 1.7%. Also, look at the capital investment numbers for utiltiies right now in Solarcity markets. They are projected to dramatically increase. The nat gas craze has put a big 20-30 year capital return number out there and it's not going away even if Solarcity continues compounding growth because they are already building the nat gas investments. Like you said, big stranded assets are inevitable. So, retail rates will not go down, they will continue to rise well beyond 1.7%.Secondly, we are not even close to understanding the value of these assets and solarcity's network and network data. remember, they are building out an infrastructure that is already giving realtime data on production, use, and now with energy storage, behavioral data, predictive data points, as well as everyday interaction through the Solarcity app and associated platforms. They are the link between other consumer products such as nest thermostats, smart air conditioners, heating systems, coffee makers, dishwashers, Windows, security systems, weather sensors, lighting, matress covers, and much much more... In a sense Solarcity, will have almost an app developer network with near unlimited potential.Think about he value of this network and your mind will explode. Solarcity solar systems are the seed to a vastly larger value that will only compound over time.This doesn't include any advancements to solarcity's own software or hardware which I'm sure they will have many over the course of the next 20 years and beyond. One of my many predictions is that Solarcity will start offering Internet services down the line as well. We haven't even scratched the surface of value of Solarcity systems.

Yes, I am in basic agreement with this. The problem that I see with escalors is not really about customer value. It's about getting enough cashflow in the first five years or so to fund the continued growth of the PowerCo. When they give customers a set of options around escalors, they really need to base this on a discount that is much higher than 6%. At least 20% to even 40%, in my opinion. What this would do is reward customers for being willing to pay more early on. According to the latest EVC, the typical escalator is 2.3%. This analysis leaves out those who buy direct, so your 1.7% figure may well be an average.

So 13c/kWh, 2.3% escalator, 6% discount over 30 years is worth $3177/kW. In the first year, this adds $179/kW to PowerCo revenue. Under 40% discount (to aim at a 40% ROE ) this is worth a mere $657/kW.

So using a 6% discount to price a 0% escalator, we get the same $3177 present value of revenue, but the first year contribution is $229 and total value under 40% discount is $792. So the customer who opts for the 0% escalator is giving the PowerCo 28% more first year revenue to invest and 21% more boost to grow equity at 40%. So that 2.3% escalator is really costing the PowerCo a lot in terms of being able to self-fund it's own growth. So this is why I think the pricing model is wrong. If they were to base the pricing on a 20% discount, then the 2.3% escalator would have the same first year revenue contribution and value under 40%, but the 0% escalator would have a $201 first year revenue contribution and be worth $697 under 40% discount. Thus the gap between revenue would be only 12% and value 6%. This would substantially improve the uptake of lower escalators and so achieve a higher return on equity for sharholder. And this is done without taking away options for customers.

Another way to think about this is on the debt side. Short duration bonds have lower interest than long duration. So with s lower escalator more of the debt can be covered with shorter duration bonds. So low escalators save SolarCity on total interest payments, and some of this savings could be passed on to customers who opt for smaller escalators.

The combination of improving return on equity and reducing interest payments moves the company towards positive cashflow and sustainable growth.

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Thanks jhm for the clarification. The asset level costs, cashflows and profits are good to model. This gives a perspective into what is possible.

As a shareholder I would want to look at the enterprise level to see if it can sustain itself. The gap between asset level cash flows and enterprise level numbers is significantly high to tip the business one way or the other.

I guess my worry is still I don't see adequate proof/info that the enterprise can sail through ITC step down ok. And that is not what you seem to be trying to answer (per your clarification). That's cool with me. Didn't mean to distract your analysis. I wasn't sure what the objective was.

Thanks, I'm glad it help. I absolutely agree that the enterprise level is important too, it's just hard analytically to get there all in one step. We really need much more information about management's strategic plan to get there. No doubt 2017 will be a difficult pass no matter how it is approached. But getting past 2017, I am much more confident that SolarCity can evolve and grow. Three years out and grid power is more expensive, batteries are abundant and solar equipment is cheaper, and those trends will continue to be supportive. Also Riverbend will be cranking out panels. But 2017 is the difficult pass. So strategic question is how to play 2016 to give the biggest support to 2017. Blowing cash on "warm leads" just to bulk up clearly is not in the cards. What we need are customers who are going to pitch in a lot of cash in 2017. So let's see what this strategy entails.

 

[hirox]

Any news out? we went from up 1% to down 0,5% to up 1,5% in 3 min.

 

[jhm]

Any news out? we went from up 1% to down 0,5% to up 1,5% in 3 min.

Holy cow, SunEdison is up 37%.

 

[ggies07]

SolarCity cutting ties with rooftop solar advocacy group - Las Vegas Sun News

The Alliance for Solar Choice, an advocacy group representing rooftop solar companies, is losing one of its anchor members: SolarCity.

Sunrun, the nation’s second largest rooftop solar company and a fellow member of the alliance, has been SolarCity’s top ally in the net metering fight. But SolarCity’s split from the alliance highlights an apparent rift with its competitor.
The two have differed on tactics for addressing the state’s solar policies and disagreed on how to work with lawmakers and regulators.

SolarCity says it will remain with the alliance through the net metering case, but it will sever ties after regulators make the net metering decision next month.

 

[esk8mw]

Holy cow, SunEdison is up 37%.

This one had been hurting me quite a bit lately! But I doubled down (for like the 5th time) this past Friday and was finally rewarded this week. It's a crazy volatile stock.

 

[SBenson]

Holy cow, SunEdison is up 37%.

Looking at the bonds, market has been pricing in an imminent bankruptcy by SUNE. I guess with today's news it's a tiny bit less likely that they will go bankrupt. These kind of moves happen in distressed stocks and penny stocks.

Relatively speaking, SCTY is not that distressed. It is distressed in a text book - 1000 bps above benchmark - sense. But it's not like imminent bankruptcy distressed sense.

- - - Updated - - -

SUNE has an inverted yield curve. With it's 2018 bonds yielding around 35%. That's effectively the market saying SUNE will go belly up any day now.

 

[Foghat]

Tanguy promoted to president is about increasing size of the organizational structure. More positions developed throughout the company for higher levels of promotions across the company. Now more Vice President positions, regional directors, managers, etc. in addition, international expansion will create further senior Vice President roles, etc...

again, these changes are an indication of adjusting to growth.

At first, Brad retiring caught me off guard since he's only been around for a year. But, he says its retirement time. However, I feel it's also about the growth restructuring, especially with silveo team now in massive growth mode as well, etc... I feel a younger CFO is coming. He/she will probably be in late 30's. Long term prospect going into 2017 and beyond...

I hope we hear more on DEC 15th because we all know the spin machine is going to angle this as something terrible. Already have seen the Baron's headline "Brad Buss resigns". Gotta love the effort by these baffoons.

jhm, you have to consider the Solarcity will be at over 3GWs of installed revenue generating assets YE2016. That's 50% bigger then year end 2015 numbers(in accumulated total instslls). Now this is at about 50% less capital expenditure on growth and as Peter Rive projects, at 70% more revenue then YE2015. In addition energy storage will be included within that collective of deployed assets next year as well. Aggregation services, at this point in time, are greater value/Kwh then in solar only net metering regime. Like I said before, net metering will fade away naturally as energy storage becomes more and more integrated into each system install. Increased revenue coming from initially solar only customers over he course of the next couple years as Gigafactory ramps energy storage production.

Its hard for any of us to use solar only, static state calculations to truly understand the value. Energy storage is here and will only increase 2016 and beyond. That reality is where the value ought to be calculated. I know it's a tall order, but that's where the investment proposition rests in understanding shareholder value.

 

[jhm]

Tanguy promoted to president is about increasing size of the organizational structure. More positions developed throughout the company for higher levels of promotions across the company. Now more Vice President positions, regional directors, managers, etc. in addition, international expansion will create further senior Vice President roles, etc...

again, these changes are an indication of adjusting to growth.

At first, Brad retiring caught me off guard since he's only been around for a year. But, he says its retirement time. However, I feel it's also about the growth restructuring, especially with silveo team now in massive growth mode as well, etc... I feel a younger CFO is coming. He/she will probably be in late 30's. Long term prospect going into 2017 and beyond...

I hope we hear more on DEC 15th because we all know the spin machine is going to angle this as something terrible. Already have seen the Baron's headline "Brad Buss resigns". Gotta love the effort by these baffoons.

jhm, you have to consider the Solarcity will be at over 3GWs of installed revenue generating assets YE2016. That's 50% bigger then year end 2015 numbers(in accumulated total instslls). Now this is at about 50% less capital expenditure on growth and as Peter Rive projects, at 70% more revenue then YE2015. In addition energy storage will be included within that collective of deployed assets next year as well. Aggregation services, at this point in time, are greater value/Kwh then in solar only net metering regime. Like I said before, net metering will fade away naturally as energy storage becomes more and more integrated into each system install. Increased revenue coming from initially solar only customers over he course of the next couple years as Gigafactory ramps energy storage production.

Its hard for any of us to use solar only, static state calculations to truly understand the value. Energy storage is here and will only increase 2016 and beyond. That reality is where the value ought to be calculated. I know it's a tall order, but that's where the investment proposition rests in understanding shareholder value.

I agree. I look forward to seeing how these additional revenue streams will play out. At this point, I don't think we know enough about aggregation schemes to model its contribution. This is another reason why I'm not attempting to model enterprise cashflows, but just contracted PowerCo cashflows. It may well be that SolarCity is scaling back PV MW guidance for 2016 because batteries will become a significant component added to both new and existing systems. This would be pure speculation at this point, but it could explain why they expect revenue to grow 70% while PV MW grows only 40%. It has been a mystery to me how those numbers reconcile.

So if anyone has thoughts on how to quantify the battery and aggregation opportunity, I'd love to hear it. One of my minimalist thoughts has simply been that offering a free or low cost Powerwall with installation of a solar system of minimal size would attract customers to request quotes and save substantial sales and marketing cost. Just saving 10c/W in sales cost returns double the money in 10 years on a 7kWh Powerwall paired with 6 kW of PV. So if a Powerwall gets people to pick up the phone, that would be enough. But that angle really does not add a revenue stream beyond PV. It's just a promotional inducement. It also does not tap into existing systems. Aggregation, OTOH, would play out differently. Suppose a utility or ISO offered $10/kW/month for standby battery capacity plus say 30c/kWh for power discharged on demand. So a 10 kWh Powerwall could generate $30/month in standby plus say 40 kWh demanded per month and extra $12 on average. So this would generate about $500 per year to be shared between SolarCity and customers. So with this kind of deal SolarCity would move quickly to install batteries in all will customers homes and include them in installs. The problem with this scenario is that I am totally making these numbers. If any on knows details of pilot projects that could help. However, such a deal may be structured, it would need to be good enough to motivate SolarCity and customers to participate.

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2015/11/24/sunedison-repays-most-of-410-million-margin-loan-seen-as-cause-of-stock-collapse/

This article does a good job of explaining what has been going on with SunEdison. They recently nearly paid off a large margin loan on TerraForm Power, one of its yieldcos. In hindsight is was a really stupid way to get some short term credit to help with an acquisition.

 

[doggusfluffy]

City of Las Vegas plans to go to 100 percent renewable energy - Las Vegas Sun News

The city will be entitled to a portion of energy from a 100 megawatt solar project being built by SunPower near Boulder City in the Eldorado Valley. NV Energy will buy the power from the solar company and transmit it to the city.The cost of solar for NV Energy will be about $48 a megawatt hour — a price drop of more than 50 percent over the past five years in Nevada for large-scale solar projects.
“It’s cheaper than what we could build a new natural gas plant for,” Caudill said.

GOP lawmaker proposes plan to open solar market in Florida | Miami Herald

The state’s largest electric companies are opposed to the Solar Choice plan and have financed a rival amendment that would maintain the status quo. They aren’t ready to say what they think about Costello’s bill.“We are still reviewing the bill that was recently filed by Rep. Costello,” said Sarah Gatewood, spokeswoman for Florida Power & Light, the state’s largest electric utility.
Duke Power of Florida, the second largest utility, did not respond to requests for comment.

 

[jhm]

Stranded assets may add up to $2.2 trillion. Blame COP21? | GreenBiz

A nice overview of $2.2T in stranded assets. I'm not sure that the messaging is right to focus on fossil industry losses under climate change scenarios. That just seems to reinforce resistance. I'm much more keen on the economic opportunity to make fossil fuel obsolete. Honestly I think obsolescence to batteries, solar and wind is the much more serious threat to the fossil industries. For $2.2T they can pretty much buy every politician on the planet, but ultimately they will lose to technology.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

All I know about SUNE is that I saw them featured in Saved By The Sun way back in 2007 putting panels up on Whole Foods as part of a PPA. No idea what they're up to, but gotta think at $3/share it's worth taking a stab. I mean, if Bernie wins that alone practically ensures them a future.

That being said.....this yieldco model obviously needs some work!

 

[Foghat]

SolarCity leaves TASC, denies split with advocacy partner Sunrun | Utility Dive

again, Solarcity is not just rooftop solar installs, it much bigger then that. Looks like they are making the appropriate shifts to get there.

ending quote sounds like a new mission statement on that vision.

add:

Ericsson and Orange trial Internet of Things (IoT) over GSM and LTE | Multichannel

28 billion connected devices by 2021... This is a massive massive number of battery powered or plugged in consumer products that will require energy efficiency as well as cheap energy. Centralized power just doesn't provide the services to get there. Solarcity is square in the middle of what consumers and the economy at large will require. Imagine the synergies with the spacex satellite constellation around this time as well... As jb straubel says we must think bigger...

couple things to think about:

GaN Substrates Technology Market Forecast, Trends, Growth Drivers and Industry Analysis

gallium nitride(GaN) has dramatically dropped in cost and is replacing silicon. Tesla, Solarcity, and spacex are primed to experience a major step function (maybe multiple) advancement as a result. Solarcity in specific will be capable of developing mass market energy panels that can receive(as well as send) a much broader spectrum of frequencies beyond just daytime solar. A large network of distributed sources/receivers is the key to unlocking significant value. Is it coincidence Solarcity has the largest distributed solar customer base (and growing) in the world?

"Basically, we are fabricating our advanced GaN transistors and circuits in conventional silicon foundries, at the cost of silicon. The cost is the same, but the performance of the new devices is 100 times better," Lu says.

’60 Minutes’ Highlights How Mobile Payment Service M-Pesa Has Changed Life In Kenya - CCN: Financial Bitcoin Cryptocurrency News

digital currency is rapidly being adopted within much of the lest industrialized nations. Ie 90% of Tanzania/Kenya uses mpesa as mobile phone currency, yet a majority of homes don't have electricity to charge phones. India has over 1 billion cell phones, yet 300 million people don't have electricity. Bitcoin is rapidly becoming can nveince of choice for a growing number of these cell phone users as well.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very interesting things happening in Florida.

GOP lawmaker proposes plan to open solar market in Florida | Miami Herald

 

[jhm]

I've been playing with a post ITC pricing model again. I see an interesting opportunity to leverage Powerwalls for upfront down payments that improve ROE. So I will build out two different packages: PV only and PV plus Powerwall for life of system.

In both cases I'll assume, 5kW PV at cost of $2.35/W, 1380h/year, 10% ITC, 4.5% debt financing, 6% discount and no escalator. The system produces 6900kWh/year and costs $11,750 excluding battery. PPA is 20 years plus 10 year renewal term.

PV only
PPA priced at 16c/kWh with no escalator and requires NEM. On a per watt basis, ITC contributes $0.36, debt $1.49, and equity $0.50. NRV is $1.25 and ROE is about 25%.

PV+PW
To the above system we add on one 7kWh Powerwall with upto 2 replacements over the course of the 30 year lease. The customer agrees to pay $4000 upfront for the original Powerwall and gets a permanent 2.5c reduction in the price per kWh. That is, they pay only 13.5c/kWh with no escalator for upto 30 years. Contributions per watt are as follows, ITC $0.39, customer $0.80, debt $1.42, and equity $0.47. NRV is $0.81, and ROE 40%.

I believe the second plan will be quite compelling to customers. NEM is not required, and the battery adds value to the system depending on specifics of utility rate plan and aggregation opportunities. At a minimum there is back up power. Demand charges can be defeated and if there is a flat utility connection fee, only can go offgrid merely by adding a low power generator. While the second plan does not add as much NRV, it has very strong ROE, which is what SolarCity needs to propel growth with sustainable levels of leverage. Moreover the fraction of NRV in the renewal term is smaller for the second plan.

The secret to the sauce is that 30 years of Powerwalls is pretty cheap on a present value basis. I assume a 10% annual reduction in Powerwalls. So the first is $3000, the second 10 years later is $1046, and the third 20 years out is $365. Discounting at 6%, this 30 year stream of storage has a present value of $3698. At a 40% discount to achieve our ROE objective, the value is just $3037. Even if battery prices only fall 7% per year, the present value at 6% discount is just $4030. So if SolarCity collects $4000 upfront, it most likely covers the present value of all replacements. Moreover if the batteries last longer than 10 years each this goes to SolarCity's advantage to defer replacement. So by inducing the customer to pay $4000 upfront for the battery, SolarCity nets about $963 on a 40% discount basis. This is like a 40% advance on the equity that SolarCity kicks in.

To sweeten the deal for the customer, I am suggesting a 2.5c/kWh reduction in the PPA. Without that, keeping to 16c/kWh would boost NRV to $1.37/W. The difference of $0.56/W, or $2802, goes to the customer. So the customer gets 30 years of Powerwalls for a net cost of $1200. This is also like pricing the PV system at $3.10/W versus $3.66/W. Customers who are willing to put $4000 down on a $20k system will probably demand a lower system price. Since they have equity in the system, they will likely appreciate not having an escalator, and uptake of the renewal terms at 13.5c/kWh is very likely. Additionally, the final battery replacement would be contingent on renewal as an added inducement. Of course, the battery is pretty cheap at that point so SolarCity can sharply cut rates if competitive pressures dictate.

So all in all, I think the PV+PW deal would be pretty compelling for those who can swing $4000 upfront. Moreover, if a customer is unwilling to pay upfront for a Powerwall, it is pretty costly to finance on the back of a PPA. Because the cost of batteries will be declining, the smarter mover would be for a customer to buy a single PW and use a simple amortizing loan. Why my PV+PW plan works so well is that you get cash upfront from the customer in exchange for a declining replacement obligation. And this is being exploited as a kind of loan from customer to energy service provider to fuel a higher ROE and self-funded growth.

For those that worry about the complexity of leasing schemes, know that it is always better for the shareholder to get cash more quickly from the customer. So the added complexity of tying a prepaid battery lease to a solar lease actually works to reduce risk to shareholders. There is of course the risk that battery prices do not decrease, but in that sort of scenario electricity prices are still climbing quite a bit so renewal update risk declines to mitigate the battery price risk. Again, it's usually safer to get cash quicker.

 

[Foghat]

Wow, I can't believe this Gordon Johnson person is allowed to say what he says on TV. The straight out stupidity and inaccuracy is mind boggling. It is amazingly clear he and chaos are operating for a point of manipulation, since nothing they say is actually factual.

He commented on the Federal investigation into rooftop solar saying the government is looking into retained value. That's an absolute lie. The treasury began an investigation in 2012 to review a wide swath of company's valuation of installs for 1603 GRANT program funds dating back to 2009 in the wake of the Solindra bankruptcy. That's right, this investigation started during the time Mit Romney called Tesla a failure of a company. This case has absolutely nothing to do with retained value calculations. He's completely trolling this case in order to put that in investors minds that are watching bloomberg, which again is a manipulation strategy that has nothing to do with actual fact. This entire treasury investigation will blow up in his face when the decision comes down in May of 2016(but it probably won't matter because he'll sell out of his short position well before then), which has come in delay after delay and at the request of solarcity to speed up the process.

He also said solarcity solar systems are like computers and that computers become obsolete and worthless after a few years. In this example, he insinuates people will just stop paying solar leases/ppas, etc... what total bull*hit. We all know that people are buying cheaper electricity, a commodity, locking in lower rates for 20-30 years, not entertainment devices or fads.

He also brought up, as I expected, Brad Buss retiring or as he said leaving after only a year. He insinuates the company is shady and a sinking ship. Not a single mention of Tanguy Serra being promoted to president of the company. Then he goes to net metering cases, which has nothing to do with anything he mentioned before, he just wanted to pile on as much negativity as possible, as any manipulator would. They title card said he/his company had no investment in the company, but it failed to show that he had an extensive short position in it.. which is intended to deceive viewers to believe he's got no skin in the game and that he's objective about his analysis. That right there is enough to have bloomberg investigated The buffoonery is in full effect with this guy and network.

 

[Foghat]

I've been playing with a post ITC pricing model again. I see an interesting opportunity to leverage Powerwalls for upfront down payments that improve ROE. So I will build out two different packages: PV only and PV plus Powerwall for life of system.

In both cases I'll assume, 5kW PV at cost of $2.35/W, 1380h/year, 10% ITC, 4.5% debt financing, 6% discount and no escalator. The system produces 6900kWh/year and costs $11,750 excluding battery. PPA is 20 years plus 10 year renewal term.

PV only
PPA priced at 16c/kWh with no escalator and requires NEM. On a per watt basis, ITC contributes $0.36, debt $1.49, and equity $0.50. NRV is $1.25 and ROE is about 25%.

PV+PW
To the above system we add on one 7kWh Powerwall with upto 2 replacements over the course of the 30 year lease. The customer agrees to pay $4000 upfront for the original Powerwall and gets a permanent 2.5c reduction in the price per kWh. That is, they pay only 13.5c/kWh with no escalator for upto 30 years. Contributions per watt are as follows, ITC $0.39, customer $0.80, debt $1.42, and equity $0.47. NRV is $0.81, and ROE 40%.

I believe the second plan will be quite compelling to customers. NEM is not required, and the battery adds value to the system depending on specifics of utility rate plan and aggregation opportunities. At a minimum there is back up power. Demand charges can be defeated and if there is a flat utility connection fee, only can go offgrid merely by adding a low power generator. While the second plan does not add as much NRV, it has very strong ROE, which is what SolarCity needs to propel growth with sustainable levels of leverage. Moreover the fraction of NRV in the renewal term is smaller for the second plan.

The secret to the sauce is that 30 years of Powerwalls is pretty cheap on a present value basis. I assume a 10% annual reduction in Powerwalls. So the first is $3000, the second 10 years later is $1046, and the third 20 years out is $365. Discounting at 6%, this 30 year stream of storage has a present value of $3698. At a 40% discount to achieve our ROE objective, the value is just $3037. Even if battery prices only fall 7% per year, the present value at 6% discount is just $4030. So if SolarCity collects $4000 upfront, it most likely covers the present value of all replacements. Moreover if the batteries last longer than 10 years each this goes to SolarCity's advantage to defer replacement. So by inducing the customer to pay $4000 upfront for the battery, SolarCity nets about $963 on a 40% discount basis. This is like a 40% advance on the equity that SolarCity kicks in.

To sweeten the deal for the customer, I am suggesting a 2.5c/kWh reduction in the PPA. Without that, keeping to 16c/kWh would boost NRV to $1.37/W. The difference of $0.56/W, or $2802, goes to the customer. So the customer gets 30 years of Powerwalls for a net cost of $1200. This is also like pricing the PV system at $3.10/W versus $3.66/W. Customers who are willing to put $4000 down on a $20k system will probably demand a lower system price. Since they have equity in the system, they will likely appreciate not having an escalator, and uptake of the renewal terms at 13.5c/kWh is very likely. Additionally, the final battery replacement would be contingent on renewal as an added inducement. Of course, the battery is pretty cheap at that point so SolarCity can sharply cut rates if competitive pressures dictate.

So all in all, I think the PV+PW deal would be pretty compelling for those who can swing $4000 upfront. Moreover, if a customer is unwilling to pay upfront for a Powerwall, it is pretty costly to finance on the back of a PPA. Because the cost of batteries will be declining, the smarter mover would be for a customer to buy a single PW and use a simple amortizing loan. Why my PV+PW plan works so well is that you get cash upfront from the customer in exchange for a declining replacement obligation. And this is being exploited as a kind of loan from customer to energy service provider to fuel a higher ROE and self-funded growth.

For those that worry about the complexity of leasing schemes, know that it is always better for the shareholder to get cash more quickly from the customer. So the added complexity of tying a prepaid battery lease to a solar lease actually works to reduce risk to shareholders. There is of course the risk that battery prices do not decrease, but in that sort of scenario electricity prices are still climbing quite a bit so renewal update risk declines to mitigate the battery price risk. Again, it's usually safer to get cash quicker.

Did you add in the energy storage incentives solarcity would receive, namely the SGIP incentives?
Californias SGIP, or How Not to Structure an Energy Incentive | Greentech Media
Update: CPUC Decision Continues to Reward Blooms Fuel Cells | Greentech Media

add:
jhm, did you see this? Casino decision next week. If approved, they will leave buffets NV energy for good. They are appalled by Buffet's profits, yet he continues to raise retail rates... they're going solar +storage essentially "off grid"

It's pretty hard for NV energy to say solar customers are shifting this cost onto non solar rate payers when their biggest retail electricity customers are leaving the grid to go solar(w/ battery) because non solar retail rates are too high. Who is shifting the cost onto whom?

 

[jhm]

Did you add in the energy storage incentives solarcity would receive, namely the SGIP incentives?
Californias SGIP, or How Not to Structure an Energy Incentive | Greentech Media
Update: CPUC Decision Continues to Reward Blooms Fuel Cells | Greentech Media

add:
jhm, did you see this? Casino decision next week. If approved, they will leave buffets NV energy for good. They are appalled by Buffet's profits, yet he continues to raise retail rates... they're going solar +storage essentially "off grid"

It's pretty hard for NV energy to say solar customers are shifting this cost onto non solar rate payers when their biggest retail electricity customers are leaving the grid to go solar(w/ battery) because non solar retail rates are too high. Who is shifting the cost onto whom?

No, I just wanted to work with a more general case. It seems like SGIP more than covers the cost of Powerwalls, which is super where available, but does not make for a sustainable business.

That stuff with Bloom is pretty frustrating. Somebody should do some independent emissions testing and that their specs are only under ideal test conditions. Slightly higher emissions would disqualify Bloom.

NV Energy is a real winner. Customers are willing to pay millions in exit fees to break up with them.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Did you add in the energy storage incentives solarcity would receive, namely the SGIP incentives?
Californias SGIP, or How Not to Structure an Energy Incentive | Greentech Media
Update: CPUC Decision Continues to Reward Blooms Fuel Cells | Greentech Media

add:
jhm, did you see this? Casino decision next week. If approved, they will leave buffets NV energy for good. They are appalled by Buffet's profits, yet he continues to raise retail rates... they're going solar +storage essentially "off grid"

It's pretty hard for NV energy to say solar customers are shifting this cost onto non solar rate payers when their biggest retail electricity customers are leaving the grid to go solar(w/ battery) because non solar retail rates are too high. Who is shifting the cost onto whom?

And that's the beauty of distributed solar. A large retail purchaser in the desert has a million and one ways to make solar work to cover 100%. And no matter which way the utils go, the minute one major property goes off grid everyone else needs to pay more at retail to cover the lost revenue. Then everyone quickly scampers to follow and the debt laiden util caves in under its own weight and inflexibility.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tibet's melting glaciers show climate crisis | Reuters.com

This page I assume will change the links, but right now it has some great info regarding Paris.

Morning Energy - POLITICO

Terrorism? We're not afraid of no stinking terrorism: If ME's inbox is any guide, no one has been frightened away from attending the Paris climate talks next week by the attacks of two weeks ago. Naturally top officials in the Obama administration will be present, including President Obama, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, Interior Secretary Sally Jewell, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and Kathryn Sullivan, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But so will other government officials, including a delegation led by Calif. Gov. Jerry Brown, and several potential delegations from Congress. Business leaders also plan to attend the talks, including SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive, and high level executives from Google, NRG Energy, Calpine, Bank of America, PNM Resources, PG&E, among many others.

 

[Foghat]

Tibet's melting glaciers show climate crisis | Reuters.com

This page I assume will change the links, but right now it has some great info regarding Paris.

Morning Energy - POLITICO

Thats interesting, thanks for that info. Lyndon Rive with Governor Brown in Paris is very encouraging. Lyndon did say Brown is the best governor in the world and will not allow distributed solar get damaged in California.

Maybe be we will see a big announcement from them both.