Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Don't feed the trolls. They just keep coming back for more.
Trolls don't have Tesla Model S with early 4000 VIN.
Trolls don't have join dates like mine.

You drank the cool aid years ago like me. Mine turned rancid.

I never got my email concerning Powerwall of any version, considering I got on the list the day of the announcement ... NON delivery ...
and my "reseller" STILL cannot give me a date.

Someone, somewhere may have gotten theirs ...
 
It's the entire tech sector. Apple down 3%, Facebook 2.8%, Amazon 2.7%, Tesla 3%, nVidia 4.5%, Google 2%, etc.

Tesla was down 5% earlier, but that was due to extra effort pushing TSLA down below 180. That's pretty much gone away now.

Good data, Jay. So we can look at today as primarily a sector drop, but there are exceptions like the push below 180 and the current horizontal trading that looks very much like the work of shorts while the NASDAQ is recovering, otherwise.
 
Don't feed the trolls. They just keep coming back for more.

I hope that if they make it a requirement for otherwise silent cars to make a sound, then they also make it illegal to:
1) cross the road while looking at your cellphone in front of you
2) cross the road while wearing headphones
3) crossing the road without looking around for oncoming traffic.

I see those all the time and know that a car making a noise isn't going to do much good. It's already illegal for the driver to be looking at their cellphones while driving. Looks like pedestrians are going to be spared of the requirement of any common sense at all!

TSLA usually finds it hard to get below $180. (of course, I used to say that about $188 too)

While I agree with the gist of what you said, it won't matter what the pedestrian is doing. If you hit and kill you will be charged with vehicular manslaughter.

IIRC, Tesla AP1 didn't always detect pedestrians. It also doesn't help when you are stuck behind walking pedestrians who can't hear you. There are some very expensive neighborhoods (e.g, Saratoga, CA) where there are no pedestrian sidewalks, and people including children routinely stroll/bike on the neighborhood roads. Honking can be too much.

The pedestrian alert had full support of senate, and a huge support from house. It is widely supported in most developed countries. The link below is quite informative about studies in this area. Sorry, you will be wrong again about this one.

Electric vehicle warning sounds - Wikipedia
The Pedestrian Safety Enhancement Act of 2010 was approved by the U.S. Senate by unanimous consent on December 9, 2010 and passed by the House of Representatives by 379 to 30 on December 16, 2010.
..
As of 1 January 2014, most of the hybrids and plug-in electric and hybrids sold make warning noises using a speaker system. Tesla Motors, Volkswagen and BMW do not currently include warning sounds in their electric-drive vehicles, as all of them decided to add artificial sounds only when required by regulation.

(Edited by self to remove strong language.)
 
Last edited:
Quick side note:
There are 100 Model S inventory cars on Teslas german website. Haven't seen this much ever, not even at the end of Q3. Wonder whats going on... Lots of P90D and 90D. Also some 60s which I don't get since they can unlock the 75 kWh and sell the car for a much higher price right?

EDIT: Probably making room for AP2.0

Same in Finland
 
  • Informative
Reactions: esk8mw
IMO I have not seen anything that makes me think that Trumps presidency will do anything that substantially hurts Tesla in the long term. But in the short term it could obviously cause substantial short or possibly even medium term dips in the SP.

I'd be particularly careful right after he takes office. It's really clear that his post election speech (if you needed confirmation) is a much less accurate view of his intentions than his ugly statements during his campaign.
Why Detroit Auto Stocks Boomed Last Week: Thank Donald Trump -- The Motley Fool
Why Detroit Auto Stocks Boomed Last Week: Thank Donald Trump
Trump's choice to lead the transition at the Environmental Protection Agency sent shares of the Detroit automakers soaring -- and put Tesla's into a funk.
<Snip>
Obviously, the U.S. election -- and its surprise result -- made for a tumultuous week for many stocks. But why was it good for Detroit?

The answer has to do with fuel-economy rules. But for environmentalists and fans of electric vehicles, the good news is that changes to the fuel-economy rules might not matter much in the long run.

How Donald Trump helped set off this rally

Here's the first clue: The Detroit rally didn't really get going in earnest until Thursday morning, two days after the election.

So what happened to trigger all this? The catalyst for the moves was probably President-elect Donald Trump's selection of Myron Ebell to lead his transition team at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), news of which broke late on Wednesday. Ebell is a director at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a libertarian Washington think tank -- and a climate-change skeptic.

So what?

Among many other things, the EPA administers the U.S. government's fuel-economy rules for automakers, called the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. The current rules, put in place by the Obama Administration in 2011, will come up for review next year. The thinking is that if climate-change skeptics are running the EPA, there's a good possibility that the CAFE rules will be relaxed considerably, something that could have a big positive impact on Detroit's bottom lines over the near term.
<Snip>
Those standards are set to be reviewed in 2017. The concerns of Fields [Ford CEO] and his peers may find sympathetic ears in the Trump administration. A relaxation of the CAFE standards would be good for Detroit's profits, at least in the near term.

Likewise, with climate skeptics running the EPA, the elimination of tax breaks and other federal programs favoring electric cars seems very possible. That wouldn't be helpful to Tesla, and that's why its shares fell last week.

Despite Ebell's appointment, it's still not really clear how President-elect Trump plans to proceed with respect to the fuel-economy rules. We may not know more for a few months. And worries about electric cars may be overblown, as the technology might already have enough momentum to be unstoppable even if the U.S. government's favorable policies go away.

But at least from the limited perspective of Detroit's bottom linesv, Ebell's appointment suggests good things in the near term.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gene and GoTslaGo
That quick drop on huge volume was likely due to stop loss limits set at $180 by weak longs leading to a cascade similar to toppling dominoes. However, it is quite possible that a manipulator pushed over the first domino when the price was hovering near $180.
Based on that would it be safer to set your protective stops at an uneven amount, something like $180.60, so that the market doesn't blow past your stop?

If so how much is necessary?

Similar to the strategy of bidding uneven amounts on eBay.
 
Last edited:
Quick side note:
There are 100 Model S inventory cars on Teslas german website. Haven't seen this much ever, not even at the end of Q3. Wonder whats going on... Lots of P90D and 90D. Also some 60s which I don't get since they can unlock the 75 kWh and sell the car for a much higher price right?

EDIT: Probably making room for AP2.0

Right it seems all are with AP1, it's about inventory liquidation
Following new model
 
  • Like
Reactions: madodel
Good explanation for why the market has had a bullish response so far to Trump:

It would make sense that Trump’s election would enable the passage of a large infrastructure plan if he were replacing a president who opposed such a plan. This is not the case. Obama spent years pleading publicly and privately with the Republicans to support a national infrastructure bank. They blocked it on the purported grounds of affordability. To the extent they are willing to support infrastructure spending under Trump, or at least stand aside, it is a continuation of a pattern dating back to Reagan, in which Republicans toggle between wild expansionary fiscal policy under Republican presidents and brutal contractionary policy under Democratic ones.

Republicans blew up the deficit under Ronald Reagan, then fomented hysterical warnings of insolvency under Bill Clinton. When Clinton’s policies structurally balanced the budget, they unbalanced it with massive tax cuts, a military and security buildup, and a prescription drug benefit, all entirely debt-financed.
...
The cycle has been repeated enough times that careful observers simply assume that the GOP will immediately flip from debt hysteria to debt mania. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters today he still “cares” about the debt, but has realized that economic growth is a priority that will help resolve it — a realization that somehow dawned in the immediate aftermath of the election after eluding him throughout Obama’s two terms. This is a major reason the stock market has taken Trump’s election with such equanimity: The government is no longer held hostage by an opposition party committed to tight fiscal policy. Steven Blitz, chief economist at Pangea Market Advisory, told The Wall Street Journal that he had previously worried the economy would tip into recession, but that new debt-financed tax cuts and spending would allay such a scenario: “Now that Republicans are in control, there’s no concern about debt and deficits,” said Steven Blitz, chief economist at Pangea Market Advisory.

Unless Trump gets us involved in a back and forth trade war with 'Gyna', the macro investing environment looks good for the next few years. This is good for growth stocks like tesla as well.
 
Based on that would it be safer to set your protective stops at an uneven amount, something like $180.60, so that the market doesn't blow past your stop?
I've always introduced this type of random noise in all my limits for exactly this reason, unless I want to be part of the herd. You essentially stated my reasoning. I still don't know how effective it is; I've almost never tried otherwise, to compare (and have only recently started doing so (picking round numbers) when I think I can get away with it, just to see how it works).

---

Alert sounds? Really, Congress?

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Transportation
Department on Monday finalized long-delayed rules that will
require "quiet cars" like electric vehicles and hybrids to emit
alert sounds at speeds of up to 18 miles per hour.
The rules, which were required by Congress, will require
automakers like Tesla Motors Inc <TSLA.O>, Nissan Motor Co
<7201.T> and Toyota Motor Corp <7203.T> to add alert sounds to
all vehicles by September 2019. The Transportation Department
said it expects the rules will prevent 2,400 injuries a year in
2020 and will require the adding of alert sounds to about
530,000 vehicles.
Esk8mw, I don't think this will move SP much, but it is anti-EV. I think it is also anti-ped. This is why: if I know my car sounds like an ass-wipe potty mouth whenever I'm under 18MPH (wth kind of number is that?), I'm going to make damn sure I never go under 20MPH. Others who have a similar attitude will probably not be as careful in compensation for making sure peds are not in the way. Suddenly, higher speed pedestrian accidents will happen and more often, with no beeping at all. This regulation may backfire.

---

After years of only getting rare communication from Tesla I have now received 3 different emails in the past week on random topics

11/11/2016 "Tesla Update - November 2016" Which was about some new changes regarding the Supercharger system, price changes for Model S and the new AP2.
11/12/2016 "Charge Effortlessly"
11/14/2016 "Next Generation Performance"

Is this a new direction for Tesla Communications because of employee changes or or a new lever to try to expand sales or both? The first was expected as Tesla has sent out similar news announcements before, but the other two are different. They are promotional pieces specifically for the Model S ending with links for ordering, trade in, and scheduling a test drive.
I can offer one more possibility in conjecture: that as an organization they have been getting much larger, and using rumors less and less as methods of communication, and have to rely upon actual public communications in order to compensate for that opaqueness, and have come to fully realize that in actuality. Furthermore, all the other things you said. It would be especially easy if all of those things are happening in parallel, even organically (if not also intentionally): the "new employee training" to the occasionally new communications persons would obviously be slanted by whatever current teacher (boss) they have by whatever current situation they have. This would allow step changes in a gently changing environment (as well as in an abruptly changing environment). In other words, I delineated how I have no idea.

---

Note to myself: Gyna = China

---

There really isn't a whole lot Trump can do outside of discovering a time machine and going back in time and undoing the ratifying of the various stages of WTO. China can effectively retaliate to anything Trump tries to do and a trade war has always been bad for the economy.
Treaties are very easy to sidestep, ignore, etc. It's what we do. And everyone else. Treaties are like diplomatic statements, essentially. The fact WTO has been holding court about them is amazing, but immaterial in many ways that can be surprising to us all.
Also it has been theorized for some time in economics that the nation with reserve world currency status will result in having trade deficits(e.g., Triffin dilemma).
I've always thought this was one of the disadvantages of being King. But in that TImes article, they said we get more avocados. What if the avocados come at too high a cost? What if we are actually better off with more money for the cars and less avocados? We only need so much nutrients; anything more, and it's potentially making cancer worse. It's not necessarily a great investment to have a higher quantity of avocados. I think the same thing is true on a macro level: it's not necessarily a better deal to have more goods coming in from overseas; factory know-how moves out. Ability to introduce USA-inspired USA-uplifting, USA-targeted and USA-greatening products goes down. For instance, the other day I was in that grocery store that used to be San Francisco owned, Safeway, that was always considered a good middle class store, but was subsequently owned by some Scandanavian conglomerate (and now by some super low-class company). You go today to check out, and in an era of Apple Pay, Safeway has just upgraded to last year's new thing, Chips. They have new paying terminals. You stick the card in, and the keys are hard to press: they are made for smaller fingers. You try to interact with the terminal to tell it you do not want to donate to some sham "charity", and you might press "take all my money" instead, because of bad user interface. There's 50 things worse about the experience that make the new terminals a lot worse than the older (and also awful) terminals of last year. A lot of these big companies don't care about USA. But, if USA is great again, then suddenly we'd have more opportunities to treat ourselves well. I think this extends to our cars, our energy, to everything. Remember when Enron manipulated California energy prices? That's an outsider not caring what happens to a far away land. That happens across national borders, but in languages and cultures we don't even understand, through time zones that cross all our schedules.
 
Last edited:
It's the entire tech sector. Apple down 3%, Facebook 2.8%, Amazon 2.7%, Tesla 3%, nVidia 4.5%, Google 2%, etc.

Tesla was down 5% earlier, but that was due to extra effort pushing TSLA down below 180. That's pretty much gone away now.

Good data, Jay. So we can look at today as primarily a sector drop, but there are exceptions like the push below 180 and the current horizontal trading that looks very much like the work of shorts while the NASDAQ is recovering, otherwise.

And cycling the $ into banking/financial institutions

One example: JPM up 3.5%
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoTslaGo
Why are banking/financial stocks up? Is Trump in favor of increasing interest rates? Wouldn't it hurt highly debt leveraged realty/infrastructure/construction related stocks? Why would he do that?

Suspect people think he's going to eliminate Dodd-Frank, or weaken.

BINGO @GoTslaGo
 
  • Like
Reactions: Turing and TMSE
Just because there's no reports doesn't mean the cars don't exist! In each case, there's a gap in dates where the "missing" VINs are. Unless you are willing to conclude, without evidence, that the factory was shut down or they just stopped issuing VINs for several days but then restarted at a number that surprisingly coincides with regular VIN issuing cadence, the theory fails. The much more likely explanation is that those VINs exist but are not reported, either because they are inventory, issued to non-Forum members or whatever. If the VINs suddenly jumped by an un-issuable number one day to the next (say 1-2k jump in a day) then you would be on to something, maybe (assuming they didn't just issue a bunch at one time for some reason - issuance does not mean they are built right away). Let's start with the most recent:

Missing 168,xxx - 6 day gap. Exactly what would be expected for a run of 1000.
10/11 - 167,8xx
10/17 - 169,xxx

Missing 165,xxx - your best argument, but not definitive. 2 day gap at worst, 10 day gap at most. Note this is self-reported data and not everyone knows the *exact* VIN assignment date because they check MyTesla 10 times a day. It's possible the 10/4 person was actually assigned on 9/26 or 9/27 or something. Unlikely that Tesla issued that few of VINs between 9/26 - 10/4, but possible. Need more data here.
9/26 - 164,xxx
10/4 - 164,xxx
10/6 - 166,2xx

Missing 163,xxx - 7 day gap. Exactly what would be expected for a run of 1000.
9/19 - 162,xxx
9/26 - 164,xxx

If I had to guess, I'd say they were in scramble mode at the end of the quarter to make new inventory. Many stores sold every car in their possession, including all floor models. Hard to sell cars when there's nothing to show customers. I bet ~2,000 inventory cars were made in that period and we will see them soon.

"Missing" 135,xxx and 136,xxx: the fact that 1 or 2 exist of each disproves your theory that those VINs were skipped. The fact that these numbers are (apparently) only showing up now strengthens my claim that sometimes inventory VINs are hidden from view until later when they are made available for sale.
Reaching back to an older post here, but I think it's important. Around the time of the AP2 changeover, a number of people were speculating that Tesla was skipping VINs, mainly because VINs in the 163,xxx, 165,xxx and 168,xxx ranges were not being reported. I pushed back on this pretty vigorously, saying that these cars would soon show up in inventory. We now have evidence of 163,xxx and 165,xxx showing up in European inventory so I think we now have strong evidence that Tesla has not skipped VINs in any meaningful way (or at all).

For those looking for a VIN update, I can say the pace remains torrid. Tesla has assigned around 9,000 VINs from 10/1 to 11/9. Granted, a good chunk is probably inventory, but if you believe Tesla is positioning itself to sell off these inventory cars and empty the pipeline at year end, you have to feel really good about Q4. If they keep at this pace on VIN assignments they will outpace Q3 S VIN assignments by 4000-5000. It's not coming at the expense of X either - they are well above the Q3 pace as well.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.