Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[neroden]

Speaking of which, that rocket explosion probably was another drag on Tesla stock price.

Yeah, people do react that way.

Very few people know if SpaceX needs an investment round itself or not,

Very unlikely. At this point I suspect they keep enough cash reserve to allow for one explosion at a time. (They'll have to get the next launch right, though.) Their blow-up rate is lower than the average for space rocket programs, still, so most of the customers are very loyal.

and that's just another potential drag on Musk's financing ability. The fact that the company apparently does not know what caused the explosion yet isn't helping...

 

[TMSE]

I started counting. Outside California, SolarCity doesn't have very many stores.... and they're weirdly concentrated.

Arizona: 9 -- 3 in Phoenix plus Glendale and Mesa!
California: 32. Good geographic distribution, but 2 in Riverside?!?
Colorado: 2
Connecticut: 2
Delaware: 2
DC: 1
Hawaii: 2
Maryland: 5 (OK, that's quite a lot)
Massachusetts: 7 (again, that is quite a few)
Nevada: 1 (now service only)
New Hampshire: 1
New Jersey: 4
New Mexico: 1
New York: 4
Oregon: 1
Pennsylvania: 1
Rhode Island: 0, served from neighboring states
Texas: 3
Utah: 1
Vermont: 1
Washington: 0, served from neighboring states
----
Total: 80, of which 32 are in California



I would expect a lot of SolarCity stores to close because they have redundant locations with Tesla operations. (The Pennsylvania location is the most obvious.) A number of others are in locations where Tesla needed to open stores and service centers anyway. I would expect closure of the redundant locations in Phoenix.

Great work! I hope they close atleast half of them immediately, and reduce sales commission significantly, say from the current average $6k per home installation to $1k. Whoever not happy with lowered commission can leave. This bloodletting has to stop.

 

[BobSk]

Agree 100%. My point again, is that a decently priced acquisition, likely by google or apple, is the worst case scenario at this point. Elon will do everything in his power to avoid that, but as an investor i think having that floor there that most people are ignoring isn't so bad.

It's like back when Tesla was struggling in 2013 and shorts were screaming that it was going bust any day now. It was true that Tesla was in a precarious position, it was false that there was any chance for Tesla to go bust as Musk simply called up Page and worked out a relatively awesome worst case scenario acquisition.

I agree, I would vote no if a company offers to buy Tesla at a big premium. I prefer Tesla stay independent and slowly become one of the largest companies in the world. Shorts use all sorts of tactics to scare/persuade longs to sell. My answer is to add more shares when they drive down the stock price. Like last time, even in the worst case scenario, Elon can figure out a decent path for Tesla. The same is true again. Tesla has huge value if Elon wants to sell it. Of course most long term holders know Elon's plan is not to sell but to run Tesla into a giant in the energy and transportation sectors. Selling the company is the last resort safety net.

The new development with Tesla's autonomous minibus is quite significant. I don't see any analyst figured this into their calculation yet. Now we have the timeline. The business unit is setup, it's no longer a dream. People can start figure out the revenue and profit. The potential profit is 1~10 billion dollars a year.

 

[Krugerrand]

1. Tesla doesn't do marketing.
2. "Sales" people at Tesla are very different from what is required to actively "sell" solar. The reason Solar has a high cost of sales is because it is a more difficult sell. Tesla "sales" people are closer to order takers who can enthusiastically explain the product. I never had a hard sell experience visiting any the 4 different stores I have been to. Solar on the other hand...between the mailings, handouts at stores, the ads on TV/radio, the installers at Home Depot and Lowes, the door-to-door people, etc.

It is a huge leap of faith to believe that the current low-key style of the Tesla store will work for selling solar.

A non-sarcastic post from you; that must have hurt.

But anyway, you make a VERY interesting point. How does the new and improved Tesla 'sell' solar, but remain non-offensive to the customer. I believe the answer lies in the synergies and both JB and Musk's 'one-stop-shopping' comments, where it simply makes sense on all fronts to go renewable/sustainable all in one shot.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I agree, I would vote no if a company offers to buy Tesla at a big premium. I prefer Tesla stay independent and slowly become one of the largest companies in the world. Shorts use all sorts of tactics to scare/persuade longs to sell. My answer is to add more shares when they drive down the stock price. Like last time, even in the worst case scenario, Elon can figure out a decent path for Tesla. The same is true again. Tesla has huge value if Elon wants to sell it. Of course most long term holders know Elon's plan is not to sell but to run Tesla into a giant in the energy and transportation sectors. Selling the company is the last resort safety net.

The new development with Tesla's autonomous minibus is quite significant. I don't see any analyst figured this into their calculation yet. Now we have the timeline. The business unit is setup, it's no longer a dream. People can start figure out the revenue and profit. The potential profit is 1~10 billion dollars a year.

very well stated. there is absolutely no way Elon will sell and even more unlikely is the scenario that TSLA will have any difficulty raising capital. First of all the SP will be markedly higher by the time Q4 capital raise comes along and also remember we are in a low interest environment with tons of capital looking to find a home and what better place than TSLA. also, this is a bull market(about to become a raging bull market anyday now) so when Tesla survived in the depths of 2008 market meltdown (even though it was not a publicly traded company back then) how likely is it that Tesla will hurt for capital in a raging bull market about to go crazier.
Gentlemen (and Ladies) let the games begin

 

[neroden]

But anyway, you make a VERY interesting point. How does the new and improved Tesla 'sell' solar, but remain non-offensive to the customer. I believe the answer lies in the synergies and both JB and Musk's 'one-stop-shopping' comments, where it simply makes sense on all fronts to go renewable/sustainable all in one shot.

I think providing a product which is competitive with SunPower panels is a big part of it. A lot of people do want "highly efficient" panels whether or not it makes financial sense, just like people want "fast accelerating" cars whether or not it's practical.

 

[geneclean55]

very well stated. there is absolutely no way Elon will sell and even more unlikely is the scenario that TSLA will have any difficulty raising capital. First of all the SP will be markedly higher by the time Q4 capital raise comes along and also remember we are in a low interest environment with tons of capital looking to find a home and what better place than TSLA. also, this is a bull market(about to become a raging bull market anyday now) so when Tesla survived in the depths of 2008 market meltdown (even though it was not a publicly traded company back then) how likely is it that Tesla will hurt for capital in a raging bull market about to go crazier.
Gentlemen (and Ladies) let the games begin

I like your enthusiasm! What are your indicators for this?

 

[BobSk]

I didn't see this posted. Just FYI. "Detection of ‘abundant’ magnetite particles raises concerns because of suggested links to Alzheimer’s disease". It seems highly likely these particles are from ICEs. Because similar Platinum particles are also found in the brains. ICEs scrape off tiny pieces then burn them into nano sized metal balls. These end up into our lungs then stick to our brains. Tesla is getting rid off ICEs, and also the Tesla filter can remove these tiny metal balls in the air.

 

[MitchJi]

I didn't see this posted. Just FYI. "Detection of ‘abundant’ magnetite particles raises concerns because of suggested links to Alzheimer’s disease". It seems highly likely these particles are from ICEs. Because similar Platinum particles are also found in the brains. ICEs scrape off tiny pieces then burn them into nano sized metal balls. These end up into our lungs then stick to our brains. Tesla is getting rid off ICEs, and also the Tesla filter can remove these tiny metal balls in the air.

That's probably the reason so many brain dead bears are shorting Tesla and trolling on this forum.

Don't worry guys, we're working on a solution .

 

[Alketi]

How does the new and improved Tesla 'sell' solar, but remain non-offensive to the customer. I believe the answer lies in the synergies and both JB and Musk's 'one-stop-shopping' comments, where it simply makes sense on all fronts to go renewable/sustainable all in one shot.

The obvious answer is that they'll have bundling options, both in store and on the website. Imagine, in the not too distant future, buying a $50K Model 3 + solar package. [I suspect they won't immediately hit that price point, but will in the next five years.]

Solar does synergize with EVs. I installed SunPower panels on my house a year ago in anticipation of the Model 3, six months before the reveal. When folks, who already have no real love for their utility company, realize that they're transferring their car's gasoline bill to their home electric bill, the inclination will be to do mitigate that expense and, for the first time, they'll be able to. You can't install your own gas station.

That's the theory, at least. It remains to be seen if Tesla can swing all of this while in the midst of a massive capital ramp for both the Gigafactory and Model 3 (not to mention stores and superchargers), but I'm hopeful.

 

[MitchJi]

It remains to be seen if Tesla can swing all of this while in the midst of a massive capital ramp for both the Gigafactory and Model 3 (not to mention stores and superchargers), but I'm hopeful.

They don't need to do a massive capital raise.

 

[FredTMC]

Easy! Have you not been a long time TSLA investor?0

Yes.

 

[brian45011]

I'd say that's highly unlikely. I very much doubt Tesla's accounting team could close the books (or even estimate with any degree of precision) profitability numbers just 2-4 days after quarter end. Even if they could put together an estimate, I doubt they'd be confident enough to make a projection since the result could be right on a knife's edge (i.e., a few dozen cars counting or not counting in the quarter could mean the difference between profitability or not). Getting this wrong (if overestimating) would look really bad so there would be so many caveats that the profitability discussion wouldn't be recognizable.

Notably, even the vehicle sales number reported at quarter end changes by the time earnings are released (just 1% or less, but still could swing the numbers). Clearly, there's plenty of "maybes" floating around at the end of the quarter which would prevent accurate financial projections.

There is a precedent: Electric car maker Tesla sees Q1 profit

As then, a lot depends on the regulatory credits. How does the early conversion of $422 million in face value of 2018 notes affect non-cash interest?

 

[Drivin]

I agree, I would vote no if a company offers to buy Tesla at a big premium. I prefer Tesla stay independent and slowly become one of the largest companies in the world.

As a public company, Tesla is not independent.

There is a case for getting a PE firm to take the company private.

 

[AlMc]

Yes.

Who is Fred?

 

[electracity]

Funny. The acquisition deal should be worth at least twice what the bailout deal (11 billion) google was eagerly willing to pay for Tesla in 2013 with little to no revenue and its first production volume car struggling to ramp and the gigafactory being just a plot of land in the desert. That makes the realistic worst case scenario floor on tesla 22 billion imo.

22 billion is a good guess for the floor. Of course how much dilution would have taken place by that point is unknown.

I want to know how Tesla finances new factories after the model 3 is proven. In particular, how much can be done with debt.

 

[stealthology]

Just a reminder: On the Q2 call, Jason Wheeler said: "If we can execute on production/delivery goals in 2H of the year, we have a good chance of being non-GAAP profitable." Then Elon immediately interjects: "excluding Model 3 capex". Thoughts? Wheeler's comments are giving me some more hope. Nearly half of total production occurred in the last month (steep ramp?), then the 5K Tesla's in transit comment. The optimist in me says I have the confidence Tesla will do what it needs to do to make Q3 great since quite a bit is riding on it (share price stability, capital raise).

Can someone remind me approximately how quickly Fremont can churn out a Tesla assuming there's little/no wait for the US (ie. for a west coast techie trading in for a P100D @ end of quarter)?

 

[electracity]

I started counting. Outside California, SolarCity doesn't have very many stores.... and they're weirdly concentrated.

Arizona: 9 -- 3 in Phoenix plus Glendale and Mesa!
California: 32. Good geographic distribution, but 2 in Riverside?!?
Colorado: 2
Connecticut: 2
Delaware: 2
DC: 1
Hawaii: 2
Maryland: 5 (OK, that's quite a lot)
Massachusetts: 7 (again, that is quite a few)
Nevada: 1 (now service only)
New Hampshire: 1
New Jersey: 4
New Mexico: 1
New York: 4
Oregon: 1
Pennsylvania: 1
Rhode Island: 0, served from neighboring states
Texas: 3
Utah: 1
Vermont: 1
Washington: 0, served from neighboring states
----
Total: 80, of which 32 are in California



I would expect a lot of SolarCity stores to close because they have redundant locations with Tesla operations. (The Pennsylvania location is the most obvious.) A number of others are in locations where Tesla needed to open stores and service centers anyway. I would expect closure of the redundant locations in Phoenix.

you forgot Illinois

For comparison, Subaru has 620 dealerships in the continental US.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I like your enthusiasm! What are your indicators for this?

Excellent question! I'm glad you asked
When I look at the long term quarterly chart of Nasdaq going back to 1970s we are in a very similar spot as we were back in 1994/1995 and the market went crazy after that into a major melt up that culminated in frenzy of 1999/early 2000. I believe we are in a very similar situation right now and the quarterly Nasdaq chart tells me that we will start going up into a crazy melt up any day now which will ride the upper bollinger band and I would be shocked if we do not reach new heights that will take Nasdaq to over 20000 or even higher within the next 5 years or so (with some major crashes/ corrections along the way). So my hypothesis is very simple: buy extremely high beta stocks like ACIA , NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, FB. Personally I can not find a more compelling growth story in this market than TSLA so much so that I sold ALL my FB and put ALL my money into TSLA
We'll see
Easy come
Easy go

 

[TrendTrader007]

Excellent question! I'm glad you asked
When I look at the long term quarterly chart of Nasdaq going back to 1970s we are in a very similar spot as we were back in 1994/1995 and the market went crazy after that into a major melt up that culminated in frenzy of 1999/early 2000. I believe we are in a very similar situation right now and the quarterly Nasdaq chart tells me that we will start going up into a crazy melt up any day now which will ride the upper bollinger band and I would be shocked if we do not reach new heights that will take Nasdaq to over 20000 or even higher within the next 5 years or so (with some major crashes/ corrections along the way). So my hypothesis is very simple: buy extremely high beta stocks like ACIA , NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, FB. Personally I can not find a more compelling growth story in this market than TSLA so much so that I sold ALL my FB and put ALL my money into TSLA
We'll see
Easy come
Easy go

And not to digress too much but I also put all my 403b money into small cap value today since I am extremely bullish