Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Sentiment has gotten far too bearish. When Mark Bernard Spiegel is being brought on CNBC things have gotten far too ridiculous. The moot sentiment on TMC about reflects the moot sentiment of the stock. In my view, the stock consolidating around $225 is a good thing.

4:1 put to call ratio implies the bears have gotten a bit too greedy.

 

[Turing]

Big take-away from that article is a new electrolyte. This will allow them to run cell voltages at or above 4.5 volts! That's huge.

Does this mainly relate to superchargers or could it help even with regular charging?

 

[MitchJi]

Picking up on everyone's "why isn't the stock going up every day" whining. Have some patience. I am in TSLA because it's 2 year outlook is so rosy. This is pretty much my thesis in TSLA in graphical form:

Between now and then are question marks. I believe there is a "great lurch" upward coming as the valuation of TE and model 3 come home. When the lurch happens is a big question, but it could be as early as Nov if Q3 results are good. Otherwise there will be some other catalyst, timing of which is hard to predict.

Since I believe that the model 3 will be great, on time (maybe 1 qtr late--on time by TM standards), and profitable there is simply no way the valuation can remain the same by late 2017 or early 2018.

The last time in 2013 it was positive financial results due to a surge in model S sales, before expansion costs caught up with it. I think the next one will be financial too; there is just no record of product, feature or factory updates ever moving the needle very much. So it could be Q3 when/if they can surprise with model S/X deliveries or, when they deliver a bunch of model 3's in some qtr in 2018 or some time in between when the writing is on the wall and the valuation grows up in anticipation of this good news that can be increasingly priced in with safety. That is, there could not be a "great lurch" but a wide flatter rise.

I think it's that simple and the rest are details. I don't think I am smart enough to predict the timing so I have stock and J18 calls, and admittedly the J18 calls are risky based on my own thesis. J19's will be expensive when they come out but I will be looking to move them out early next year if we are still trading flat. If not my J18's were a fine choice anyway.

Two things you seem to be overlooking. That the MX should soon provide a similar financial impact to the MS. That TE should soon provide a similar financial impact to the MS. Either of those could or should cause a similar surge to the MS, back in the day.

Pretty convincing. (Groan).

I am not selling you anything, just sharing my outlook. If you are not convinced no need to be snarky.

I apologize for the misunderstanding! Your outlook was/is convincing enough (thanks!) that it has triggered some additional doubt about my strategy, hence the groan. In other words sincere respect for your opinion.

 

[glhs272]

Does this mainly relate to superchargers or could it help even with regular charging?

What it relates to is cell capacity. By allowing for higher voltages, you can stuff more electrons in the same physical battery. Typical Li-Ion cells operate between 4.2volts @100% State of charge (SOC) and 3.1volts@ 0%SOC, so about 1.1 volts between full and empty. Now if you can charge up to 4.5 volts, your spread is now 1.5 volts, a 36% relative jump in capacity. Without adding any weight or increasing the size of cell. Significant, I would say. Note: these numbers are relative, just to illustrate a point.

Edit: 1.4 volt spread, like I said "relative" not exactly correct math. Also the capacity to voltage is not linear, but close. So don't take the math at face value, but the point is that it could lead to a significant step change in battery capacity.

 

[MonroeSS]

You really think the bolt will have more room than a full size sedan? There's a reason you never see it photographed alongside other vehicles. It's built on the Spark platform.

"The Spark" is not a platform. It is built on

It won't do very well because it can't. GM's deal with LG Chem for its batteries won't support a sales rate in excess of 30K bolts per year.

You keep stating that the range per dollar is unknown. I'll grant you that exact values aren't known, but there are enough quantities known to conclusively say the Model 3 will deliver greater miles of range per dollar. Tesla has publicly stated, the $35k base model, will achieve at least 215mi of range, and maybe more. GM has stated the $37,500 Bolt will achieve at least 200mi. More money, lower minimum. Tesla wins.

If you want to look at it another way, the bolt has a published Cd of 0.32. Model 3 is 0.21. Bolt has a published battery size of 60kWh. Tesla has said that Model 3 will be offered in a variant with less than 60 -- the expectation is 55kWh.

Aerodynamic & rolling resistance, power & MPG calculator - EcoModder.com

A Bolt, assuming 25.8sqft frontal area, 0.32 Cd and .008 Crr will need almost 18.5kW to break through the air at 70mph. 60kWh / 18.5 = 3.25 hours of run time @ 70mph = 227mi of range, assuming you maintain steady state 70mph with no acceleration losses and traffic and never slow down at all. This is the best case scenario the physics allows for.

I never said the Model 3 will be more expensive and it may be cheaper as you have concluded. All I said was we are just assuming at this point when neither company has released pricing or specs. You are still assuming that $35 Model 3 is not like the S40, cancelled after a few months. Also assuming that the $35K model 3 will be available right away. What if it is two to three years out? What if the Bolt gets a price cut by the time? What will the discounts, incentives be? What about lease options and interest rates? Model 3 has to be Tesla's cash maker but the Bolt will only have to lose less than the $20K it earns GM per sale in credits. Also worth noting that the Bolt is built on the Gamma II chassis, shared with 15 other GM products, bringing the cost per unit way down when you sell millions of cars sharing the platform. This will be a price war not worth fighting for either company when there is probably zero cross shopping between the two.

All things considered equal there are still many unknowns. It is easy to think that the best car in our opinion will sell 100% and the others will sell 0%. If you ask my opinion I would say the Mazda 6 is the best looking, best driving, non-premium sedan. No one in their right mind would buy a dish water boring, soft riding Altima or Camry. The actual sales numbers paint a different story. We can't expect everyone to have the same tastes and preferences. If everyone had my taste then the 2016 Chevy Colorado(which i now I own) will sell 300,000 a year and the others brands will sell 0. In the real world each midsize truck sells about 50,000 to 100,000 a year with Toyota selling about 150,000 or more.

EVs will be no different. Yes, Tesla will clearly sell more because they HAVE to but let us not be dismissive about other offerings or deride consumers who wish to choose them. Maybe they want to buy from their in town dealer, maybe they care more for Apple Carplay or Onstar, maybe they watch Indy and are Chevy fans, maybe they liked their new Malibu so much that they want to buy another Chevy, maybe they want a car they can slide into not fall into, maybe their Chevy dealer offers them a better price for their trade in, maybe because they wrongly perceive luxury brands to cost more to buy, insure, maintain, service or repair.

There are a zillion reasons why one car is superior over another for a person you or I may may not understand. You would think a Ferrari is a trillion times more superior to a boring GMC crossover, but if you ask my wife what she'd rather drive, she will always chose her Acadia.

 

[MitchJi]

Big take-away from that article is a new electrolyte. This will allow them to run cell voltages at or above 4.5 volts! That's huge.

Substantial rather than huge (about 8%)?

Does this mainly relate to superchargers or could it help even with regular charging?

It relates to cell (and ultimately) energy and power capacity.

If you have a 3ah cell at 4.2v you get (3 x 4.2) 12.6 watts per cell.

Or if you have a 3ah cell at 4.5v you get (3 x 4.5) 13.5 watts per cell.

 

[Turing]

It could also increase life cycles of the battery, right? Could this be part of the 2nd generation TE stuff?

 

[glhs272]

Substantial rather than huge (about 8%)?

It relates to cell (and ultimately) energy and power capacity.

If you have a 3ah cell at 4.2v you get (3 x 4.2) 12.6 watts per cell.

Or if you have a 3ah cell at 4.5v you get (3 x 4.5) 13.5 watts per cell.

Much better math thanks.

8% is still big jump for a battery. If they can get even higher voltage, even better.

Model S cells (85kwh) are 3.2Ah or thereabouts (I think). Also, we need to be working in nominal cell voltages, not max voltage when using the Amp Hour rating to determine cell capacity in watts. I have no idea what the nominal voltage for a 4.5 volt battery would be, so I am running away from this conversation due to my own ignorance.

 

[sunhelm]

This never gets old...

The fact that both sides believe that they are right does not MAKE both of them right...

OMG. TransTeslarated, that same conversation could have gone like this with ex-GM's Bob Lutz:

Q:"What was your reaction when you first saw the Model s?"

BL: "92,500 dollars? Subsidized? By the Fed? I said that is the most expensive car in the world and it doesn't appeal to race car drivers, because it does not run at full power sustainably which makes it not a very good race car machine. Now, it may sell very well or not, I...you know...we have our strategy. We've got great econo box cars in the market today. We've got the Volt now for $40,000 dollars, it's a very capable machine, it will do music, it will do infotainment, it will run on electric for 30 miles. I look at that and say, whelp, I like our strategy. I like it a lot."

Q: " How do you compete with that though? He sucked out a lot of the spotlight at the recent "D" reveal, not only with the Dual motors, but with the new Autopilot and later on the Model 3. How do you compete with that now, with the Bolt?"

BL: "Right now, well let's take ICE cars first. Right now, we're selling millions and millions and millions of ICE cars a year. Tesla Model 3, selling ZERO cars a year. In 11 months, they'll have the most loss leading Model 3 car, by far, ever in the marketplace while we'll be selling our Bolt by this year. So let's see how the competition goes."

 

[glhs272]

It could also increase life cycles of the battery, right? Could this be part of the 2nd generation TE stuff?

Could very well help in life cycle. They determined the older ethylene carbonate electrolyte isn't so great. I remember watching Jeff Dahn's presentation and he was very clear that electrolytes are the "secret sauce" of batteries.

 

[austinEV]

AustinEV, you make an excellent point that most first-time Tesla buyers are not visiting the forums and their level of knowledge is such that they aren't likely to delay for AP 2.0. At the other extreme is the longtime Tesla owner about to upgrade their S to another S or an X. There's plenty of them, and they are much more informed, so their positions are much more likely to be like yours (definitely waiting for the upgrades). My guess is that Tesla can keep the production lines running at full in Q3 with current demand but 100kwh battery and AP 2.0 will be needed to bump things up to the 2400 vehicles/week rate in Q4.

BTW, if you knew that a heads up display for speed and perhaps some autopilot functions would be available 2 months after 100kwh battery and AP 2.0, would you wait for the heads-up display to be released before ordering?

Agree that current owners have the very tip-top highest chance of being osborned. By definition they are fine tuning their upgrades and are highly tuned in. We are the "already burned" group (not really, but sort of). Hmmm, I hadn't considered new heads-up options. You keep preventing this sale.... I think I don't care about new display options very much. Once 100 comes out I will get real itchy. 2.0 HW is less clear-- it might not even be a real announcement. new sensors might just start creeping into cars gradually. That is my fear is that we won't really be sure when 2.0 arrives.

You're not alone. I've never understood that kind of hatred either. It's such a waste of energy and makes one's world really unhappy and ugly.

I am starting to think it's class warfare. If you cannot afford a model S but admire them, it is pretty easy to resent model S owners, and that transforms into hatred for the company pretty easily. Model 3 cures all.

I apologize for the misunderstanding! Your outlook was/is convincing enough (thanks!) that it has triggered some additional doubt about my strategy, hence the groan. In other words sincere respect for your opinion.

Doh! Tone is so easy to miss online. I apologize for looking for snark where there was none!

 

[Drivin]

Jeff Dahn's presentation and he was very clear that electrolytes are the "secret sauce" of batteries.

Electrolytes.
It is always Electrolytes.
That's why it is an Electric Vehicle.
Bonus: It is what plants need.

 

[Papafox]

Tesla stock is unbelievably weak and can't hold its ground. More down days from here?

Yawn. TSLA is stuck in a 220-230 range until real news pulls us one way or the other. The SP 220 is a strong support level, and 230 is a resistance level but it is weaker than the 220 support. Today was mostly undecided up and down trading for TSLA, which was an improvement from Tesla Tuesday. The closer we get to 220, the more ready the SP is to rise. The closer we get to 230, the more ready the stock is to descend. If you are smart, you will take advantage of the rather-dependable fluctuations within this range.

 

[austinEV]

Yawn. TSLA is stuck in a 220-230 range until real news pulls us one way or the other. The SP 220 is a strong support level, and 230 is a resistance level but it is weaker than the 220 support. Today was mostly undecided up and down trading for TSLA, which was an improvement from Tesla Tuesday. The closer we get to 220, the more ready the SP is to rise. The closer we get to 230, the more ready the stock is to descend. If you are smart, you will take advantage of the rather-dependable fluctuations within this range.

The thin trading is really remarkable. Also, check out how FLAT everything is. literally the 200, 50, 20 are all dead flat:

The local price action is so boring it is sort of interesting. I suppose by boring stock rules, it will bounce between the 220/233 bolinger bands.

 

[tander]

Agree that current owners have the very tip-top highest chance of being osborned. By definition they are fine tuning their upgrades and are highly tuned in. We are the "already burned" group (not really, but sort of). Hmmm, I hadn't considered new heads-up options. You keep preventing this sale.... I think I don't care about new display options very much. Once 100 comes out I will get real itchy. 2.0 HW is less clear-- it might not even be a real announcement. new sensors might just start creeping into cars gradually. That is my fear is that we won't really be sure when 2.0 arrives.



I am starting to think it's class warfare. If you cannot afford a model S but admire them, it is pretty easy to resent model S owners, and that transforms into hatred for the company pretty easily. Model 3 cures all.



Doh! Tone is so easy to miss online. I apologize for looking for snark where there was none!

With AP 2.0 is there any indication that it's going to be soonish? Not to dash any hopes but how do we know it won't be in six months?

 

[MitchJi]

Once 100 comes out I will get real itchy. 2.0 HW is less clear-- it might not even be a real announcement. new sensors might just start creeping into cars gradually. That is my fear is that we won't really be sure when 2.0 arrives.

They could do a stealth but why would they hide such a strong demand lever for long?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

All we need is for Tesla to finally confirm who one or two of its strategic partners are and the amount of money that will be injected/invested into Tesla as part of the partnership. This is one gigantic catalyst no-one has mentioned. Too many BS analysts, including the BIGGEST BS artist (Mark B Spiegel), who is NOT an analyst, still think Tesla is lying about having strategic partners.

If Tesla's only problem is needing cash to accelerate its operations, Tesla doesn't have any problems. There is $2 trillion + on the sidelines, for companies doing what Tesla is doing. Not to mention TRILLIONS from sovereign wealth funds that will be reallocated into companies such as Tesla in the very near future.

 

[austinEV]

They could do a stealth but why would they hide such a strong demand lever for long?

Well I expect a stealth release of both. There is a LOT of chatter about new 90's being secret 100's already, due to a mysterious power output increase. Also the 1.0 AP hardware was stealth released so it's reasonable to think they would do it again. They might really not know the final config. New mirror housings are already reflecting 2 camera spots, but only populated with one camera. My feeling is they may start sticking in the sensors they know they will eventually need as soon as they can. So maybe in Sept they start making cars with new radar sensors, extra cameras and say nothing because the SW isn't done and they aren't totally sure they have the HW right.

 

[austinEV]

With AP 2.0 is there any indication that it's going to be soonish? Not to dash any hopes but how do we know it won't be in six months?

I will let Fred answer that:
Tesla Autopilot 2.0: next gen Autopilot powered by more radar, new triple camera, some equipment already in production

 

[FredTMC]

They could do a stealth but why would they hide such a strong demand lever for long?

I believe MOST new owners are interested in their car having the AP2 hardware. In other words, if they find out later that they JUST missed getting the AP2 hardware, they'd be upset.

If I was close to trading in my old MS, I'd wait for the new AP2 hardware. Aka Osborne Effect

Bottom line is Tesla needs to produce cars with AP2 hardware "soon". Totally agree...

However, not all new owners care about biggest battery. Some buy 75 and 60