Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FredTMC]

We don't have any evidence that it is safer than humans. Nor does it have to be. Driving safer than humans is actually incredibly hard.

The question (at the moment) is, is the car safer with BOTH a human driver and auto-pilot? That seems very likely IF humans are using it as a supplemental system. And not, IF humans are using it as a replacement driver.

Thank you kindly.

Yep. Exactly. Care is safer with BOTH

 

[mmd]

We don't have any evidence that it is safer than humans. Nor does it have to be. Driving safer than humans is actually incredibly hard.

The question (at the moment) is, is the car safer with BOTH a human driver and auto-pilot? That seems very likely IF humans are using it as a supplemental system. And not, IF humans are using it as a replacement driver.

Thank you kindly.

It is quite doubtful. AP gives up at the last moment, leaving the human driver little time to react and take action. Driving needs some thinking ahead, which the AP eliminates. See this Electrek video posted a month ago. It has a few comments from the driver (Chris) explaining his angle. All the human drivers went around the parked van, but AP just bumped into it straight. In this case, AP performed much worse than average human drivers. This van is quite colorful, not painted white like the Florida trailer.
Tesla Model S driver crashes into a van while on Autopilot [Video]

I don't think anyone could have reacted in the time after the beeps started. Manufacturer's claims that AP was disengaged at the exact moment of the crash or pointing to fine prints, and blaming the human driver to protect itself from legal claims is lame.

 

[geneclean55]

Sooo, no delivery numbers out yet. If they wait till Tuesday, anyone else consider that to be positive?

 

[mmd]

Sooo, no delivery numbers out yet. If they wait till Tuesday, anyone else consider that to be positive?

I think around 17.5k. Model X looks good, bur the European numbers don't look so good this time.

 

[geneclean55]

I think around 17.5k. Model X looks good, bur the European numbers don't look so good this time.

Yep, I am pretty close to that. Took my estimate down some after looking at the European numbers. I have no idea regarding the situation in China. Little info i can find on that, other than the Chinese EV market in general seems healthy.

 

[MitchJi]

My last post (I promise) about the SCTY acquisition until after TSLA completes their Due Diligence (electrek now has the complete transcript - but Fred still has not fixed the incorrect quote on cell production).

I believe the following is definitive proof that all of the worries and arm chair analysis are based on incomplete information.
Anyone who posted that it doesn't make sense should have preceded that by saying that they didn't know what they were talking about. They could turn out to be correct of course but when I heard Elon say that Tesla was going to build compelling electric cars I would if someone had predicted the sales results vs BMS and Mercedes and all of the awards I would have thought that was impossible. All of the people posting that this is a lousy deal could be correct but I think it makes a lot more sense to bet on Elon, based both on his track record and the fact that he knows much more about the reasons for doing this acquisition than any of his critics.
<http://electrek.co/2016/06/22/elon-musk-tesla-solarcity-tsla-scty-merger-amazing-quotes/>

But I really want to emphasize that I have zero doubt about this — zero — arguably we should have done it sooner. But I think doing it now gives us enough time to create a compelling integrate product and bring that to significant scale next year.

At about 38 minutes he said:
Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer: At what point are we going to get financial details here? Clearly there’s been an awful lot of cross-pollination with the boards. The former CFO of SolarCity is on the board of Tesla, JB is on the board of SolarCity, there’s been a lot of sharing. To have a price here without some sort of scope of return of capital I think would be incredibly important for us, so when are we going to get that information? You’re begging off the detailing on synergies, getting specific on return of capital for Tesla shareholders will be essential for getting this done.

Elon Musk: Yeah, I agree. We’re going to have to do this in a but of an unwieldily way because I’m the largest shareholder of both companies. If that wasn’t the case we could do a lot of this and present you with the full and final details of the proposed merger. Since I’m the largest shareholder of both companies we have to tell you at the beginning of the process, not the end. We’ll certainly have all that done for you, but the reason it’s not just in a neat package is because in our case we have to tell you at the start of the process before we have all the answers rather than at the end of the process. We’ll definitely get all of that information and I’m confident it will be extremely compelling.

And he believes (ST Thread) that it won't take very long to show up on the balance sheet:

Elon Musk: Once we get it done the cash burn is likely to reduce because of reduced cost of sales and general operational efficiencies and a lot of things that are duplicated. We expect costs to decrease and to increase the positive cashflow from the SolarCity acquisition. In my case, like a few months, cutting the fat in pretty short order — let’s say six months after the acquisition is complete I would expect those efficiencies to be there and be significant.

Colin Langan, UBS: In terms of the time horizon, in terms of delivering on goals and promises, particularly around this acquisition, you actually think these synergies could be achieved in six months of closing? It would be that quick?

Elon Musk: Yeah. From the point that the point at which the deal is done, yes. It should be meaningful and noticeable by the second full quarter after the acquisition is completed. I’m highly confident that that would be the case.

 

[geneclean55]

As if by magic...

 

[VanE]

Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries




PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 07/03/16 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) produced 18,345 vehicles in Q2, an increase of 20% from Q1, and exited the quarter consistently producing just under 2,000 vehicles per week. Due to the steep production ramp, almost half of the quarter's production occurred in the final four weeks.

With continued productivity improvements, Tesla expects output to reach 2,200 vehicles per week in Q3 and 2,400 vehicles per week in Q4. Current order rate trends and backlog support production at those levels. In total, Tesla expects to produce and deliver about 50,000 vehicles during the second half of 2016, approximately equal to all of 2015.

Due to the extreme production ramp in Q2 and the high mix of customer-ordered vehicles still on trucks and ships at the end of the quarter, Tesla Q2 deliveries were lower than anticipated at 14,370 vehicles, consisting of 9,745 Model S and 4,625 Model X. In total, 5,150 customer-ordered vehicles were still in transit at the end of the quarter and will be delivered in early Q3. That amount was higher than expected (there were 2,615 vehicles in transit to customers at the end of Q1) and is more than a third of the number of cars that completed delivery in Q2.

* * * * *

There may be small changes to the Q2 delivery count (usually under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.

Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release, including statements regarding future vehicle deliveries and vehicle production rates, are "forward-looking statements" that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks identified in our SEC filings. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.

Source: Tesla Motors, Inc.

 

[MitchJi]

And we have a lot to be optimistic about (not directly related to the acquisition) on the M3 production front:
The Tesla-SolarCity deal explained through some amazing quotes by Elon Musk
I fixed the incorrect quote on cell production (in bold):

Elon Musk: It’s going to scale as the factory operates at maximum capacity. We think the factory is going to be operating at maximum capacity as far into the future as we can see. This is all about production. My meetings yesterday were all about guys who need to figure out how to ramp up our production of cells, batteries, electric cars, faster. And addressing every limiting factor that we can. I mentioned manufacturing the machine that makes the machine, order of magnitude improvements are what I think can be achieved. We won’t get there right away, but by version three of the machine that builds the machine: order of magnitude. Competitive car manufacturing will look at that and it will seem like an alien dreadnaught. “What the **** are you doing? What the hell is that?”

It blows my mind that people don’t realize just how much improvement potential is possible. This bit, we’re talking about high school-level physics are necessary to figure this out. It’s not mega complicated. Just go to the factory, do a volumetric entity calculation of what percentage volume inside this building is doing useful stuff versus is either air or not doing useful stuff, you’re shocked at how tiny that percentage is. Like low single digits. What is the exit velocity of the products? How fast are things moving out the exit? What’s the mass flow, whoa it’s really low. The fastest car plants in the world the car exit velocity is basically grandma with a walker. It’s real slow, it’s 0.2 meters per second. It’s really really slow. We can do waaay better than that. The fastest person can run faster than 10 meters per second, so why is car exit velocity on 0.2 meters per second? That’s ridiculous. Why is the volumetric efficiency of a car factory — it’s usually in the mid-to-low single digits, that’s very low — why shouldn’t it be at least a volumetric density of 30 or 40 percent? 30 percent seems very very achievable. Nobody would design a chip that had volumetric efficiency of 2 percent. It would look ridiculous. And yet we design factories that way.

Pat Archambault, Goldman Sachs: Are these efficiencies you’re looking to put in place for your next Tesla plant, or are these things we can see at Fremont at some stage in the near future?

Elon Musk: You’ll see things moving in that direction. With Model 3 we’re starting to get to version 0.5 of alien dreadnaught level, where alien dreadnaught level is like version 3. Where it’s most obvious is in the cell production. Our engineering team has worked very closely with Panasonic to make dramatic improvements to the cell manufacturing efficiency. I think we’re probably approaching 3x the efficiency of the best plant in the world. I think that’s pretty good. Cells are going through that thing like bullets from a machine gun. In fact, the exit rate of cells will be faster than bullets from a machine gun.

Pat Archambault, Goldman Sachs: Well, we look forward to the next time you take us around

Elon Musk: The Gigafactory party is going to be an eyeopener

 

[tinm]

So will Wall St punish the stock this coming wk?

 

[JeffreyY]

Tesla Q2 #'s here....

Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

 

[dc_h]

Swing and a miss.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I'll predict Short Seller's reaction:
"Tesla can't come close to their vehicle guidance 2 quarters in a row, so adding SCTY will make things better? LOL"

 

[VanE]

So will Wall St punish the stock this coming wk?

Oh yes they will! The only reason TSLA held up so well in the last weeks (through SCTY merger, Brexit and AP crash) was because investors were looking forward to the Q2 numbers. They didn't deliver a few less, but 15% less! (yes, a lot are more are produced but still in transit. But Wall Street probably doesn't care about that)

The deliveries are so much lower than expected that the poll on this forum didn't even went that low.

I dont hope so, but I am afraid that we will see some (deep) sub 200 movements.

 

[FredTMC]

Knowing this was a miss, someone please explain SCTY offer? I can't

 

[mrdoubleb]

f**k. So this is not good... I mean I get it, over 5k in transit that just missed the month end closing, but still on the short term this is "sub-optimal" for TSLA.

The bad: Q2 lower than Q1. Missed both delivery and production targets (17k/20k vs. 14,370/18,345). even so, their guidance of 50k for H2 puts us at just the bottom of the 2016 range of 80-90k.
The good: Model X deliveries doubled over Q1. Production rate is at 2k/week and will go up to 2,400 by EOY.

 

[geneclean55]

So they are guiding for around 80k for this year

 

[dc_h]

I hope guidance helps, but credibility is low. If they maintain 2000+, they should start releasing monthly production numbers. Likely below 200 until they hit numbers.

 

[McMuggets]

Oh yes they will! The only reason TSLA held up so well in the last weeks (through SCTY merger, Brexit and AP crash) was because investors were looking forward to the Q2 numbers. They didn't deliver a few less, but 15% less! (yes, a lot are more are produced but still in transit. But Wall Street probably doesn't care about that)

The deliveries are so much lower than expected that the poll on this forum didn't even went that low.

I dont hope so, but I am afraid that we will see some (deep) sub 200 movements.

To be fair, adding the 5,150 cars enroute to customers produced in Q2 puts it at 19,000 deliveries, which means the forum voters were pretty much right!

 

[McMuggets]

One more thing to add, the production rate is 2200+/week? That's over and beyond what I thought Tesla could do this year. 50,000 guided for rest of the year with current order-rates supporting that maxed out level of production? Wow.