Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Dennadyne]

Better than $235? Really?

I have to think their cash flow is going to be a big focus and with 1200 cars missed there will be a lot of noise. I guess it depends on how much confidence they can drum up for Q3/Q4 FCF positivity, which is an issue in an of itself. They'll likely increase capex with new ramp plans by Elon so I'm starting to think they won't be FCF positive at all. Maybe some more seasoned folks here can provide better insight than me though.

 

[flankspeed8]

A miss is a miss. But we have to look closer than just a number. See my new post regarding an Apple example, they missed, down 3%, then rallied 40% in a few months.

I saw that...I disagree on the AAPL price actions because in some cases IIRC the misses were the results of analysts disregarding AAPL's own guidance. This is TSLA's own guidance.

BTW, are you from Shoreview in MN? I went to Chippewa Junior High for a year. Lots of MN peeps on here lately.

 

[SBenson]

For shorts this is last ditch chance to get out less scarred than otherwise.

For longs, this is the last dip to get in before impending mega rallies.

Make use of the dip people!!

Does this ring a bell? This was posted yesterday after-hours.

 

[mejojo]

Under this definition, then when is a miss ever really a miss? We can be very good at rationalization, but TSLA themselves states they missed their delivery targets for the Q that were reaffirmed a few months prior. How in the world is this not a miss and as investors why are we so quick to let it go?

Because March 31 is an arbitrary date that really doesn't have anything real to do with business operations.

 

[tanner]

Green

Red

 

[ssq]

Does this ring a bell? This was posted yesterday after-hours.

Are you claiming it's a monotonically up up and away from here on and we never see $235 again?

 

[Drax7]

I really do hope the fact that the Model 3 will be SIGNIFICANTLY easier to manufacture vs. a Model X is lost on analysts and shorts/bears alike. This will set us up for some exciting days come next year.

I think they have a learned a hard lesson, complexity is the antithesis of performance
in every measure.

the simplicity of the electric engine is a beauty, why complicate the
car

 

[mejojo]

Red

Can we all just agree that anyone reading this thread has their own quote machine and we don't need price play-by-play here?

 

[thx1139]

Tesla Can Hack The Tax Code To Max Out The Number Of People Who Get $7,500 Back, Here's How

I find it amazing the news reports are always months to weeks behind TMC. We figured this out ages ago. The fresh news, though, is that Elon Musk actually agreed to do it. So, perhaps the news reporters were waiting for confirmation that they'd actually do that.

So after reading this it made me wonder. Say Tesla doesn't hit 200K US deliveries by end of 2017 could they simply build cars in 1st qtr 2018 and not deliver. Build up a huge inventory of cars and hold off delivering until April 2018. I know it would take a lot of capital to do this, but could they go to investors and say these are sold we need a short term influx of cash and 2nd qtr 2018 we will have a massive amount of deliveries.

 

[mejojo]

I think they have a learned a hard lesson, complexity is the antithesis of performance
in every measure.

I cannot disagree more strenuously than I do. This statement makes ZERO sense.

 

[tanner]

Can we all just agree that anyone reading this thread has their own quote machine and we don't need price play-by-play here?

Chill... While true, it was a joke because we didn't necessarily need to hear "green" in the first place.

 

[jhm]

New In fairness when I read that post originally, I misinterpreted what you meant as "before prime time". Based on the way the post was written I took that 400k number to be a longer stretch of time than within the first 24hours or the first weekend. I am actually still not clear on the time horizon you were implying here. But I will concede that someone else was thinking decently high.

I was arguing against a view that suggested that we need lots of early adopter types before the Model 3 can be safely sold to non-early adopters, i.e., prime time. So "prime time" was not about the timing of reservations but about when Model 3 is ready to fully compete in the general market. So I was satirizing the view that Tesla needed to produce the 100k to 400k Model 3 before the production kinks will be fully worked out and the car is ready for prime time. I should hope that 20k would be sufficient to ramp up and work out bugs. I still submit that there are plenty of early adopter types among early reservation holders who will be buying a Tesla for the first time.

Regarding the timing of reservations, I was thinking about how many reservations might come in before production begins. After production begins, the dynamics of reservations change because people know more precisely what the car is like and how long the wait time might be.

So, yeah, I think we could see 400k or more reservations before Model 3 goes into production. At some point the wait time gets so long that it may discourage later reservations. So it will be important for Tesla to have some transparency about production schedule so that potential buyers are not discourages from placing a reservation. So I see this as the essential upper bound. At what point do people say, why bother?

 

[tanner]

Are you claiming it's a monotonically up up and away from here on and we never see $235 again?

Here's hoping for the latter!

 

[BobSk]

I really do hope the fact that the Model 3 will be SIGNIFICANTLY easier to manufacture vs. a Model X is lost on analysts and shorts/bears alike. This will set us up for some exciting days come next year.

The ease of manufacturing for model 3 is beyond belief. Tesla moved from the most difficult to produce (model X) to the easiest to produce. The key reason is from the very beginning, "ease of manufacturing" was a major design requirement. This will also greatly improve the reliability. Model 3 will become one of the most reliable car in history.

 

[Drax7]

You can criticize Tesla for these perceived "faux pas" or you can admire them for not backing down from a challenge.

I can tell you that as a two time Model S owner, I did not buy either one of them because they were electric. I bought them because of the technology they utilized and the fact that, in my opinion, they were ahead of everything else in their class from an innovation and tech perspective.

I believe much of the demand for these $100k+ vehicles is driven by the fact that Tesla chose to put the risky tech that no one else has done.

The simplicity of the model S makes it brilliant.
The model X is another matter.

 

[tanner]

The ease of manufacturing for model 3 is beyond belief. Tesla moved from the most difficult to produce (model X) to the easiest to produce. The key reason is from the very beginning, "ease of manufacturing" was a major design requirement. This will also greatly improve the reliability. Model 3 will become one of the most reliable car in history.

While the model x is certainly harder (in large part because of the falcon wings), how do you know the 3 promises "ease of manufacturing"? Once they get it down and get the robots trained, it should be a cake walk... But until then, it's no easy task to manufacture something so complex as a car.

 

[FredTMC]

TSLA back in the green.

I can totally see 'Logical Thought' losing all logic over this. Must be throwing the keyboard at the monitor and cursing out loud at this 'irrational market'.

lol. Love it

IMO, one of the most bullish signals you can see is when a stock misses qtr and still rallies. TSLA is a growth stock. Sure, Qtr results matter but Guidance is super important.

If guidance was weak/weakening we'd have a problem. If growth ahead is accelerating, then it's full steam ahead

 

[tanner]

The simplicity of the model S makes it brilliant.
The model X is another matter.

MX is simple in its complexity for a few aspects for the vehicle.

 

[tanner]

lol. Love it

IMO, one of the most bullish signals you can see is when a stock misses qtr and still rallies. TSLA is a growth stock. Sure, Qtr results matter but Guidance is super important.

If guidance was weak/weakening we'd have a problem. If growth ahead is accelerating, then it's full steam ahead

Yeah... I'm with you, but let's see what happens now that we're out of amateur hour.

 

[Drax7]

While the model x is certainly harder (in large part because of the falcon wings), how do you know the 3 promises "ease of manufacturing"? Once they get it down and get the robots trained, it should be a cake walk... But until then, it's no easy task to manufacture something so complex as a car.

fantastically complex, and these complex systems when out on the field
can come to haunt them. And they know that better than i ever could
and so why take the risk

Maybe they are so empowered they can't see through their own brilliance,
hubris

anyways, " alls well that ends well"