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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Citizen-T
Active Member
This is a good read: Why Longboard Asset Mgmt Went Long Tesla - Business Insider
From our friends that had the slide deck about how Tesla is like Apple.
From our friends that had the slide deck about how Tesla is like Apple.
Given the volumes we are seeing and the price action today we can safely conclude the first phase of the Tsunami is over. The first line of shorts has been cleared. Now it's time for the price to settle down a little so that i know there is real demand from retail investors at ~$80 and not just short covering demand. Once we know that it's time to ride this train again.... 
Given the volumes we are seeing and the price action today we can safely conclude the first phase of the Tsunami is over. The first line of shorts has been cleared. Now it's time for the price to settle down a little so that i know there is real demand from retail investors at ~$80 and not just short covering demand. Once we know that it's time to ride this train again....
I'm sorry, don't agree. Today already 5M
mitch672
Active Member
+1. It's now attracted the attention of day traders and HFTs all looking to make a quick buck, it always had some attention from them with it's volatility, but now it has huge volume as well.
We would need to sustained trading at the $80 range before a base of buyers is established at that level. If that doesn't happen and the price rise is entirely due to short covering we could see significant downside. At this point, I'm just advocating a wait and see strategy. If you have stock hold. If you don't wait. Entering a new position at the current time exposes you to unnecessary risk when we don't know what the floor on the price is.
That's exactly what I'm doing. I sold about 2/3 of my shares at 85 (avg buy price of 30). I still have shares but, if TSLA went bankrupt tomorrow, I'd still be on the plus side with the cash I took out.
When all this calms down a bit, I'll look at going back in and buying more.
When all this calms down a bit, I'll look at going back in and buying more.
deonb
Active Member
Now that the raging bull has been replaced with something closer to a lethargic ox with a few hickups, how long would it take for the IV to go down?
I'd like me some June calls to hold over the SuperCharger announcement but the premiums are just insane.
I'd like me some June calls to hold over the SuperCharger announcement but the premiums are just insane.
> Entering a new position at the current time exposes you to unnecessary risk when we don't know what the floor on the price is. [avatar]
True. From 35 bailed completely @88 yesterday. Jumped back in today @83, but only with (all of) the house's money. Look Ma, no hands!!
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True. From 35 bailed completely @88 yesterday. Jumped back in today @83, but only with (all of) the house's money. Look Ma, no hands!!
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Problem with watch and wait thinking is this: I keep hearing it and the stock keeps climbing.
Honestly, I don't see stock price going down much from here on for awhile, more likely to find levels of relative stasis followed by more advances. Morgan Stanley analysis of yesterday shows that Tesla is not undervalued, it simply has not been well understood, but that is changing. Tesla awareness is growing steadily, and support for the stock is firm with new longs coming in, as general interest in the company and the cars keeps spreading, now more rapidly. This rise in TSLA is not merely due to a short squeeze, though that has helped. The price has stabilized at certain levels throughout the rise and will continue to do so, imo.
Meantime the news will keep on coming, and so will the awesome electric cars! Elon openly discussed his "secret master plan" years ago, and it is being brought to fruition with uncanny timing and build. This is not by accident, folks. The same brilliant attention to detail in the design, engineering, and manufacture of the Model S, has been evident in all the cars and the rockets, and in the business planning and development. Few people can understand what Elon and companies are up to. (Few can understand rocket science too. Elon says "it looks hard and it's harder than it looks.") Few people can get their minds around how far reaching and detailed this "Secret Master Plan" really is! Not without some hiccups but pretty much it seems right on schedule.
IMHO 80 for TSLA is going to seem like a deal that's already gone. Really 100 is just around the corner. And the new "smarter" shorts will just help that day arrive sooner!
Elon and company have planned well ahead, with exceptional attention to detail, not avoiding adversity or criticism. Though there may be skepticism about the series of announcements know as the "trilogy," it is clear that they have long been planned and choreographed to build interest and to reveal more exciting innovations at each stage. This "choreography" has been carefully built in to the roll out for years and it is even literally built in to the cars themselves! Observing the procession so far, who will doubt that in his "trilogy," Elon has "saved the best for last."
He has planned to "reveal" this disruptive technology and innovation stage by stage since the beginning. And he just keeps getting better at timing and execution. His genius for business is on a level every bit as advanced as his genius for rockets. (Hint: they both involve launching and building altitude en route to sustainable orbit.)
Seems to me that, right now there are not many in the world who are making better rockets and cars, maybe none.
Equally true, in my view, is that few in the world have much advanced business planning acumen as Mr. Elon Musk.
Honestly, I don't see stock price going down much from here on for awhile, more likely to find levels of relative stasis followed by more advances. Morgan Stanley analysis of yesterday shows that Tesla is not undervalued, it simply has not been well understood, but that is changing. Tesla awareness is growing steadily, and support for the stock is firm with new longs coming in, as general interest in the company and the cars keeps spreading, now more rapidly. This rise in TSLA is not merely due to a short squeeze, though that has helped. The price has stabilized at certain levels throughout the rise and will continue to do so, imo.
Meantime the news will keep on coming, and so will the awesome electric cars! Elon openly discussed his "secret master plan" years ago, and it is being brought to fruition with uncanny timing and build. This is not by accident, folks. The same brilliant attention to detail in the design, engineering, and manufacture of the Model S, has been evident in all the cars and the rockets, and in the business planning and development. Few people can understand what Elon and companies are up to. (Few can understand rocket science too. Elon says "it looks hard and it's harder than it looks.") Few people can get their minds around how far reaching and detailed this "Secret Master Plan" really is! Not without some hiccups but pretty much it seems right on schedule.
IMHO 80 for TSLA is going to seem like a deal that's already gone. Really 100 is just around the corner. And the new "smarter" shorts will just help that day arrive sooner!
Elon and company have planned well ahead, with exceptional attention to detail, not avoiding adversity or criticism. Though there may be skepticism about the series of announcements know as the "trilogy," it is clear that they have long been planned and choreographed to build interest and to reveal more exciting innovations at each stage. This "choreography" has been carefully built in to the roll out for years and it is even literally built in to the cars themselves! Observing the procession so far, who will doubt that in his "trilogy," Elon has "saved the best for last."
He has planned to "reveal" this disruptive technology and innovation stage by stage since the beginning. And he just keeps getting better at timing and execution. His genius for business is on a level every bit as advanced as his genius for rockets. (Hint: they both involve launching and building altitude en route to sustainable orbit.)
Seems to me that, right now there are not many in the world who are making better rockets and cars, maybe none.
Equally true, in my view, is that few in the world have much advanced business planning acumen as Mr. Elon Musk.
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
For me, short term (this and next week), the big questions are: 1) What are the announcements??? 2) Is a certain expectation of "good news" priced in at the current price and if so, what level of good news - i.e. if the news are great the stock will rise but if the announcements are "meh" the stock will tank? Great announcements would be a real step change in supercharger technology (not just 90 to 120 kW), a new battery tech for extended batteries (Al-air has been discussed in length on this forum), SuperSwapping, "mystery" or unknown/unexpected but never the less great stuff. "Meh" announcements would be 10k cars produced, teaming up with this or that chain to extend SC network, parking sensors for the US :tongue:
+ 11 imherkimer.
I've been investing in TSLA since last December, and while going in and out pretty often, do it on margin, selling only shares which I need to satisfy margin when exiting. All my gains are kept in TSLA stock. I have not yet sold a single share aside from what is necessary to return money borrowed on margin.
I do not feel that we are close to the real bubble territory until the stock hits $120.
Got in today at $80.95 in advance of EM announcement this week.
I've been investing in TSLA since last December, and while going in and out pretty often, do it on margin, selling only shares which I need to satisfy margin when exiting. All my gains are kept in TSLA stock. I have not yet sold a single share aside from what is necessary to return money borrowed on margin.
I do not feel that we are close to the real bubble territory until the stock hits $120.
Got in today at $80.95 in advance of EM announcement this week.
Does anyone think the share price will dive after the Q2 earnings numbers?
Q2 will not be as good as Q1 was, and we are expecting a quarterly loss, less revenue from credits, no benefit of warrant reversals, etc. The market seems to be short sighted, I'm thinking after the announcement next quarter, we'll see a sharp drop in share price and a buying opportunity. Same logic applies to Q3 where they are again predicting a loss.
What do you all think?
Q2 will not be as good as Q1 was, and we are expecting a quarterly loss, less revenue from credits, no benefit of warrant reversals, etc. The market seems to be short sighted, I'm thinking after the announcement next quarter, we'll see a sharp drop in share price and a buying opportunity. Same logic applies to Q3 where they are again predicting a loss.
What do you all think?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yes I think so, even if expected there will be a negative reaction. My hopes are for the stock to spike >$100 in the coming few weeks and then cash out on my June call positions, keep the cash and wait for buy-in opportunities in the later part of this year.
deonb
Active Member
The predictions are underplayed. Do you really think Tesla will only be making 21000 vehicles this year? The market has already taken into account the upcoming quarterly losses. What it hasn't taken into account is a higher production rate.
So I wouldn't bet on the quarterly earnings announcements to try and time any long-term positions, either long or short.
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