I have wanted to discuss the Ukrainian Airforce and what may be helpful to them for a while. First off, although I am a licensed FAA pilot... I am not former military nor do I know any classified information. The closest I know of first hand experience with F/A-18s is my DPE (designated pilot examiner) is a former F/A-18 fighter pilot or rather "Naval Aviator" to be more correct. But I am highly interested in aviation both civil and military and both modern & historical. So I feel compelled to offer my un-solicited opinion to you folks. As such take with grain of salt.
Ukraine made the right choice in going after the F-16. That doesn't mean it's the most superior aircraft in the sky, but under the current circumstances it makes a lot of sense. In particular, if you know you were only able to get a small handful of aircraft and your budget is limited (which it is) then the F-16 is a good all around choice for the many roles it can accomplish. The F-16 has a wide user base across NATO and the west. This makes institutional knowledge to support the aircraft more available across a wide variety of sources. It makes them not beholden to just one country. In fact Ukraine may never get a single aircraft of any type from the US, but because so many Ukrainian allies have them, the US may not need to. The US has a very limited budget of defense articles to give out to Ukraine (because of congress and the way our current government works). If the US had an unlimited budget to fund Ukraine's military, then sure other options may present themselves. But today, there are zero funds going to Ukraine from the US and in 2023 it would have made no sense to spend those limited dollars they were getting on aircraft (except pilot training) when Ukraine desperately needed basics such as artillery and AFVs, as well as expensive air defense missiles. Military aircraft are very expensive to purchase, fly, and maintain. The only way to fix limited dollars situation is to fix congress, and well... good luck with that. That's a problem only the citizens of the US can fix. Let's hope we do come November of this year.
The F-16 is an excellent ground pounder. Even the earlier versions of the aircraft are great for dropping dumbs with their inertial guided bombing system. It's jam proof, provides a simple way for the pilot to accurately hit the target, and uses simple, cheap, unguided bombs. In the first gulf war, the vast majority of ordinance that was delivered from the air from F-16s was unguided dumb bombs. The USAF absolutely relied on the F-16 for this. In comparison to the A-10, which mostly used precision strike stand-off munitions in the conflict. I can credit my source for this if requested. So the F-16s ability to accurately place warheads-on-foreheads using only cheap unguided munitions has been thoroughly demonstrated. And it makes sense to do this with the F-16 vs. the A-10. I will discuss the A-10 later. The F-16 can fly fast and is very maneuverable to help avoid getting shot down while bombing in a contested airspace like Ukraine. Unguided dumb bombs are cheap compared to precision strike weapons which cost a lot and are of limited quantities. Again, bang for your buck is in the F-16s favor. Have lots of dumb bombs? The F-16 can get them where they need to be.
The F-16 can hold it's own in a dog fight. The Russian VKS has some very capable aircraft such as the Su-35. Those aircraft are very deadly in a dog fight as well. But close range engagements are very rare. Moreover, it's not just the plane, it's the pilot. A great pilot in an moderately inferior aircraft can still shoot down a mediocre pilot in a superior aircraft.
Modern F-16s can do reasonable BVR (Beyond Visual Range) combat. This is where the "modernity" of the particular flavor of F-16 becomes more important. In particular the radar it is equipped with. Modern AESA radar equipped F-16s will fare much better than the older variants. Whoever is able to engage a missile lock soonest has a critical advantage. Even the most modern F-16 might not outrange a Su-35 running high altitude CAP (combat air patrol). But F-16s can still be "good enough" with proper tactics and situational advantages. Leveraging air defense networks is helpful in pushing back Russian fighters when operating near the front line. But the F-16 is unlikely to be useful in deep strike missions. But it may not have to be used this way. Ukraine's has proven drones are good for this role.
I can go on, but the F-16 is still a great choice if its the only one you can get. Most importantly it unlocks a plethora a NATO standard munitions. AIM-120 AMRAAM air to air missiles, AGM-65 Maverick Air to ground missiles, AIM-7 Sparrow, AIM-9 Sidewinder, GBU-31 JDAMs, AGM-88 HARMs, Mark-80 series general purpose bombs just to name a few. And that gets me to the next point... F/A-18.
The F/A-18 Hornet is a legacy fighter. But it still capable. It is still in front line service in the US Marine corp. It was VERY STUPID to reject the Australians offer for them. The Australian F/A-18s are not worn out and still have some life left in them. Just unlocking the NATO weapons catalog is reason enough alone to use it. It was designed to be comparable to the F-16, but for Naval use. It is not as capable as the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, but is still useful in a many of critical roles Ukraine needs airframes for. Ukraine is still flying hopelessly dated and limited SU-25s. The earliest of F/A-18 is superior to the SU-25 in almost every way. Frankly, because it carries NATO munitions it is superior to anything the Ukrainians are currently flying. It can use fire and forget AIM-120C missiles. No Ukrainian aircraft flying today currently can. But if forced to choose between F-16 and the legacy F/A-18 C/D Hornet, then the F-16 is the better choice. However, it seems like it didn't have to be that way. Australia was offering to donate them. Those donations would not have come at the expense of what the US Budget was allowing. A different budget "pie", if you will. These aircraft could have and still can, augment the F-16s. Rather, the Ukrainians should have asked the Australians, "yes we will take them, but can you also train our pilots on them?". That would have been the correct response.
And now we get to the A-10. I know everyone wants to see it in Ukraine blowing up Russian tanks. So do I. Any aircraft could be useful to Ukraine, so that goes for the A-10 too. However, what are the downsides? Well there are many. First off, the limited budget of dollars that congress has appropriated for the defense of Ukraine. Currently there are no dollars. But, even if there were it's still going to be a limited budget. A-10s can only come from the USA. You have to weigh dollars going to A-10s versus a dollar for an F-16s and all the other things A-10 dollars would be taking away from. The F-16s are just a better platform for the type of warfare Ukraine is facing. The A-10 is relatively slow. It can do good ground pounding, but is not much use in air to air combat as it lacks radar. Although it may be surprisingly competent after the merge in a dog fight, it is unlikely to ever see the Russian fighter shooting long range missiles at it. And it can't fire radar guided missiles such as AIM 120C back at one either. It would need to be supported by a larger Airforce providing fighter cover and ground defense network providing additional support. It does have stand-off capability if armed with the correct munitions. That would be helpful. But again you are trading dollars for fancy precision strike munitions of limited quantities versus good-ole cheap and plentiful dumb bombs that the F-16 has a better chance of getting on target. Another huge issue with A-10 is it is long out of production and they are old. Even the USAF is struggling to keep A-10 airframes airworthy. It is getting more and more expensive for them to do so. Most of the existing A-10s have had to be or need to be re-winged. The wing spars have finite life. Metal fatigue is making them unsafe to fly over a certain amount of flight hours. If the US was going to dump all of their existing A-10s, where Ukraine could use the good airframes for combat and using the rest for spare parts to keep a small fleet going, that would work. But the USAF appears to not be doing that, even though they would probably like to do so. Congress won't let them.
So what else.. F-15s would be great. But again they are very expensive compared to F-16. F-18 E/F Super Hornets are going out of production soon if no one buys them. Boeing will close the production lines soon as they are almost done with the last of the Navy's order. Ukraine should be allowed to buy them, as they are highly capable and highly modern. But again $$$. In reality, Ukraine needs not just a handful of F-16s. Really, they need to rebuild their entire Airforce with NATO standard equipment. It's a long term situation. They should not be limited to just one airframe type. It takes a range of equipment from aircraft to ground support for various roles. They need Helicopters. Ukraine needs to be able to achieve at least a limited air dominance over the font line to succeed. The west should be helping Ukraine achieve this. Ukraine's security is our security. Ukraine looses, we loose. Simple as that. Let's start acting like it.
OK, sorry for the wall of text, I will get off my soap box now.