Model Y - Fatality - NHTSA FARS Data Just Released for 2021

[alsetyledom280]

I am at loss why real world fatality data released by NHTSA FARS recently is not supporting the claim that model y is a much safer car from fatal accident perspective. I would guess such gov data for 2021 is fairly accurate given the nature of such accidents.

From real world gov data, model Y (about 160k units sold in 2021) is worse than bmw x5, mb gle, Lexus Rx on per car exposure basis. It is on par with suv like Toyota Highlander (slightly better) Honda pilot (about the same). Note all these suv are sort of best sellers behind model y regarding 2021 sales. Fatality here is # of cars involved in the fatal accidents during calendar year 2021, not necessarily people killed inside model y or other cars, but it is a good estimate of overall fatality of each accident. Model Y has no much sales before 2021. So this is the only year that comparison can be made. Given most of these suv has at least 50k sales for 2021, it's a good sample size.

With AP and FSD, how is that possible or we are saying model Y driver corhort is more careless (which I highly doubt). My point is if you are currently driving a mid size German lux suv, buying a Tesla model y is not making your ride safer from fatality perspective, based on this annual gov data.

You can take a look of the data yourself at below link (click on 2nd vehicle tab and enter make/model info)

Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool (FIRST)

cdan.dot.gov

Disclosure: I am neither long or short on Tesla stock. It is for my curiosity and purchase decision. I prefer independent verifiable results.

 

[Toxic]

From real world gov data, model Y (about 160k units sold in 2021) is worse than bmw x5, mb gle, Lexus Rx on per car exposure basis. It is on par with suv like Toyota Highlander (slightly better) Honda pilot (about the same).

Can you provide some data for "per car exposure" for models you noted? I looked at the link and it seems there was only 13 fatal accidents involving Tesla Model Y in 2021, while for other noted models this number is much higher (~60 for BMW x5). Did you divide it by total number of vehicles?
Anyway, I don't think the data is really representative based on really small number of registered fatal accidents for MY.

 

[alsetyledom280]

You can get car sales data from here: 2022 Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class Sales Figures

As for registered car exposure related to 2021 sales, roughly Lexus RX is about 115k, Model Y is about 161K, and BMW X5 is about 60K sales, MB GLE is about 65K, VOLVO XC90 is 38K.

Lexus RX:

MB GLE:

BMW X5:

VOLVO XC90:

 

[jjrandorin]

You can get car sales data from here: 2022 Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class Sales Figures

As for registered car exposure related to 2021 sales, roughly Lexus RX is about 115k, Model Y is about 161K, and BMW X5 is about 60K sales, MB GLE is about 65K, VOLVO XC90 is 38K.

Lexus RX:

View attachment 932361

MB GLE:

View attachment 932362

BMW X5:

View attachment 932363


VOLVO XC90:

View attachment 932365

Perhaps I am missing it, but where in the mercedes benz sales figure link you provided are verified Tesla sales figures for 2021? If not there, where else are you getting verified sales figures numbers to draw these conclusions from?

 

[alsetyledom280]

Perhaps I am missing it, but where in the mercedes benz sales figure link you provided are verified Tesla sales figures for 2021? If not there, where else are you getting verified sales figures numbers to draw these conclusions from?

Sorry for the confusion. You can pick region, year, make and model from a dropdown. There are quite a few US car sales reporting websites (this is public knowledge, I guess from company quarter or annual reports).

However Tesla does not publish US sales by model. Best model y est is 252k for 2022 and 160k to 180k for 2021 (assuming 40% jump yoy).

 

[MP3Mike]

I am at loss why real world fatality data released by NHTSA FARS recently is not supporting the claim that model y is a much safer car from fatal accident perspective.

I think you answered that yourself here:

Fatality here is # of cars involved in the fatal accidents during calendar year 2021, not necessarily people killed inside model y

The safety rating is about how passengers inside the vehicle will fair, not about how safe people outside the vehicle are.

 

[jjrandorin]

However Tesla does not publish US sales by model. Best model y est is 252k for 2022 and 160k to 180k for 2021 (assuming 40% jump yoy).

Thanks for confirming that you are basing these numbers off of estimated sales vs incidents.

 

[AS9.9.]

I am not sure anyone can infer much with just estimated Model Y data, or at all with this. If I remember correctly, crash tests from the IIHS and NCAP represent Model Y as S tier in terms of keeping occupants safe. From what I understand, there are a lot of variables when considering fatal accidents and whether a vehicle is safer than others (like a semi-truck smashing a Model Y head-on and there being a fatality, vs a BMW driver smashing into a median and causing a fatality), among many others.

I do think this data is interesting though. I would like to see replies of more people that can decipher the data more in-depth.

 

[MattM24]

This looks like pure clickbait.

Is there info on where all the data points are from?
What about sales by those regions?
How many miles did all those cars do?
Many other points above.

I.e. if most Teslas were sold in a busy area that has more crashes than where the majority of another of your compared vehicles, that would not be useful.

Also, since no numbers are completely correct, if 1-2 of these are not correct on either side, the numbers change.

I’m all about data and there are a lot of assumptions here and very little actual data.

 

[whisperingshad]

I don't think it's a scientific approach at all....If you sell 160k cars, and get say 14 fatal accidents doesnt infer much....How many of those 160k got in an accident...Also pointed above, I care about who is in the car, not outside when it comes to safety.

 

[MattM24]

I don't think it's a scientific approach at all....If you sell 160k cars, and get say 14 fatal accidents doesnt infer much....How many of those 160k got in an accident...Also pointed above, I care about who is in the car, not outside when it comes to safety.

Agreed. Pure GIGO (garbage in, garbage out)

 

[qdeathstar]

, I care about who is in the car, not outside when it comes to safety.

Uh, ok….

 

[alsetyledom280]

Agreed. Pure GIGO (garbage in, garbage out)

This is not click bait. The gov data (FARS) is very detailed and best real world data for fatality. There is a sad/horrible story of each fatal accident, the data include location, time, make/model/year, driver vs passenger fatality, and many more.

What is available from gov website query tool is only a very small aspects of this. As I understand, it takes time and effort to report on this data, that is why it was just released on 4/3/2023 for 2021 fatality data.

If you any of folks have time and interest, data is publicly available and you will see a lot more details, such as to answer how many Tesla model y drivers and passengers are killed in these 12 fatal accidents during calendar year of 2021 for model year 2021 tesla model y.

Gov also have car registration data so this can be tallied in a very meaningful way for fatality analysis. Using US sales is just a quick estimate.

There is gov report on this subject every 3y. Latest one is here Driver death rates by make and model, which will be updated with latest 2021 FARS data soon by iihs.

Hope this clarifies a few things.

 

[MattM24]

This is not click bait. The gov data (FARS) is very detailed and best real world data for fatality. There is a sad/horrible story of each fatal accident, the data include location, time, make/model/year, driver vs passenger fatality, and many more.

What is available from gov website query tool is only a very small aspects of this. As I understand, it takes time and effort to report on this data, that is why it was just released on 4/3/2023 for 2021 fatality data.

If you any of folks have time and interest, data is publicly available and you will see a lot more details, such as to answer how many Tesla model y drivers and passengers are killed in these 12 fatal accidents during calendar year of 2021 for model year 2021 tesla model y.

Gov also have car registration data so this can be tallied in a very meaningful way for fatality analysis. Using US sales is just a quick estimate.

There is gov report on this subject every 3y. Latest one is here Driver death rates by make and model, which will be updated with latest 2021 FARS data soon by iihs.

Hope this clarifies a few things.

No one is questioning the sadness or unjustness of the individual people involved. This is terrible.

The questioning was related to taking one number and dividing by a second number, while ignoring many other factors like those already listed. The USA is a large country. There are many factors that contribute.

 

[alsetyledom280]

I am not sure anyone can infer much with just estimated Model Y data, or at all with this. If I remember correctly, crash tests from the IIHS and NCAP represent Model Y as S tier in terms of keeping occupants safe. From what I understand, there are a lot of variables when considering fatal accidents and whether a vehicle is safer than others (like a semi-truck smashing a Model Y head-on and there being a fatality, vs a BMW driver smashing into a median and causing a fatality), among many others.

I do think this data is interesting though. I would like to see replies of more people that can decipher the data more in-depth.

IIHS 40 mph dummy crash test is one aspect.

However real world stat is another aspect. The challenge with real world stat is it has so many factors involved, car itself, driver corhort, weather, road conditions, seasonality, time of day etc. However IIHS report on fatality by make/model is a good one to understand this.

For example, a Ford Expedition is a very large SUV, may have good IIHS 40 mph crash test and may appear safe given its size. In the real world though, it has very bad fatality stat vs model y. Similarly you can debate German luxury SUV vs model y, if everything else is equal, model y is not better (model y is good just not the best even with features like AP or FSD in terms of fatality per car exposure).

To some extent I guess most car makers design their cars to pass or exceed IIHS 40 mph crash test.

 

[MP3Mike]

To some extent I guess most car makers design their cars to pass or exceed IIHS 40 mph crash test.

Yes, most companies make their cars to just meet the crash tests. IIHS even said that they are slowly increasing the tests instead of jumping straight to the end.

But in general Tesla designs their vehicles to perform better the NHTSA/IIHS/NCAP tests, they shoot to just pass the tests.

 

[qdeathstar]

The car is only as safe as the driver. As it was, it will be.

 

[alstoralset]

That's an interesting database. I was curious about the circumstances of these accidents, in case I might learn something to avoid doing.

Here's the list:

320285 - single vehicle, DUI, speeding, hit wall
40867 - single vehicle, DUI, speeding, drove into median
360468 - single vehicle, DUI, speeding, drove into median
391051 - single vehicle, DUI, drove off road
360340 - single vehicle, unknown BAC, teenager, speeding, drove off road
482750 - single vehicle, unknown BAC, drove off road, hit guardrail end
360633 - single vehicle, unknown BAC, drove off road, fire
390869 - single vehicle, sober, drove off road
63399 - pedestrian
450247 - pedestrian
63883 - speeding involved, eight vehicle "pileup'
40676 - 3 vehicle accident - collision with impact cushion
60515 - "Motor Vehicle In-Transport Strikes or is Struck by Cargo, Persons or Objects Set-in-Motion from/by Another Motor Vehicle"

 

[alsetyledom280]

That's an interesting database. I was curious about the circumstances of these accidents, in case I might learn something to avoid doing.

Here's the list:

320285 - single vehicle, DUI, speeding, hit wall
40867 - single vehicle, DUI, speeding, drove into median
360468 - single vehicle, DUI, speeding, drove into median
391051 - single vehicle, DUI, drove off road
360340 - single vehicle, unknown BAC, teenager, speeding, drove off road
482750 - single vehicle, unknown BAC, drove off road, hit guardrail end
360633 - single vehicle, unknown BAC, drove off road, fire
390869 - single vehicle, sober, drove off road
63399 - pedestrian
450247 - pedestrian
63883 - speeding involved, eight vehicle "pileup'
40676 - 3 vehicle accident - collision with impact cushion
60515 - "Motor Vehicle In-Transport Strikes or is Struck by Cargo, Persons or Objects Set-in-Motion from/by Another Motor Vehicle"

Interesting, reminded me sth I read last year about findings of some insurance research regarding Tesla. Speeding being the biggest negative factor even though car is generally considered safer with AP.

Let us wait and see what IIHS say this about model y (their statistical model generally requires 3 model years on road up to 2021, so model y may not get rated vs others, but model 3 has a chance).

 

[TheLex]

Just looking at the report, it kind of confirms bigger is usually better, at least for the Germans and Tesla. Tesla Model X only had 3 fatalities. BMW X7 also had very few.