jjh1234
Member
MS battery would have to be at least 120-125kw to get close to 400mi. MX would need even more. Not sure how much would be gained by switching to new cells. Maybe that would do it.
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Model S range and interior update imminent?
- Thread starter Thorbjorn
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MS battery would have to be at least 120-125kw to get close to 400mi. MX would need even more. Not sure how much would be gained by switching to new cells. Maybe that would do it.
jjh1234
Member
Well, there is the rumor of Tesla testing 130 kWh battery.
That would be sweet!
Destiny1701
22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
At a rate of roughly 5% battery efficiency per year (Elon’s own words and in his world) it would be approx 2020 before we see a 130kw battery.
The size of the battery would be larger than what currently fits on the MS/MX frame. Coinciding with a 2019 new MS would be more likely.
The size of the battery would be larger than what currently fits on the MS/MX frame. Coinciding with a 2019 new MS would be more likely.
Destiny1701
22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
Well, what fits as 2170's has been a topic of much debate...
Even 2170’s would yield a slightly higher density than the 18650’s but not 30%.
Destiny1701
22’ M3LR ‘DrkNite’/ 22’ MYP BliueRocket
eyespii
Member
The new charge port is soo ugly. I’d rather use an adapter for CCS, J1772, or whatever than have that ugly anachronism on my car.
Hope they don’t get any bright ideas and bring it to the US market...
I initially thought it would be next year too, but when they announced the end of the incentive program early, my estimate of when the refresh was coming would be sooner rather than later.
The refresh could be around Jan 1 as the orders from the end of October runs out.
I agree. I think January-February is looking likely. Can’t imagine a refresh would happen now in the middle of Model 3 production hell. All resources dedicated to Model 3.
Does anyone know if the switch to Intel chips already happened for the Model S or is that coming at some point still?
I haven't heard anything about it having already happened so I expect it's still coming. Having a faster center display is one of the things I'd love to see before jumping in.
I suspect the AP computer hardware and the infotainment computer is identical between the Model 3, S, and X. If they made any changes to the S/X, I would assume it was right after the Model 3 went into production. Probably as soon as they ran out of the stock of old parts.
The firmware for the infotainment/driver's displays is going to be somewhat different between the Model 3 and Models S/X, but the hardware could be pretty much the same. The S/X has two screens to drive and the 3 only one, but the way you can boot one at a time tells me they are separate processors and probably separate systems on the S and X, but on the 3 the same processor is doing double duty.
They may have had to upgrade to a more powerful processor for the Model 3 and if they bit the bullet and went with an Intel processor running the x86 instruction set, that gives them practically infinite expansion with no changes to the code down the line. There are some processors made by Intel that run the x86 instruction set that are intended for embedded use and would be the likely go to for Tesla.
The firmware for the infotainment/driver's displays is going to be somewhat different between the Model 3 and Models S/X, but the hardware could be pretty much the same. The S/X has two screens to drive and the 3 only one, but the way you can boot one at a time tells me they are separate processors and probably separate systems on the S and X, but on the 3 the same processor is doing double duty.
They may have had to upgrade to a more powerful processor for the Model 3 and if they bit the bullet and went with an Intel processor running the x86 instruction set, that gives them practically infinite expansion with no changes to the code down the line. There are some processors made by Intel that run the x86 instruction set that are intended for embedded use and would be the likely go to for Tesla.
Nda721
Member
I figured this is why they pushed the inventories the last quarter.
One change that may be coming is aero wheels for the S and X. It's rumored the aero wheels on the Model 3 can improve efficiency by 10%. Tesla has purposely derated the Model 3 so it doesn't have more range than the Model S 100D. If they put aero wheels on the upscale cars, they can get back the top range in the premium cars.
They're not going to get more range for S and X with wheels alone - the Model 3 gets that range with 21700 batteries that have something near 40% higher capacity per cell, meaning per pound and size the new battery has a lot more range. Model S and X need that new cell type immediately in order to compete, and since the new battery is too large to fit in the current pack dimensions, that means a big redesign to fit them - which means big cosmetic changes on top of ~450 mile range. It's the perfect excuse to release the generation of S and X.
The height of the 2170 is not that much more than the 18650 and I believe wk057 has said there is enough room for the taller cell in the existing space. 2170s could also be mounted horizontally instead of vertically. The energy per cell is more for the 2170, but the energy density per volume on the pack level is only ~20% more because you use fewer cells.
They probably are getting some pack energy improvements and I have said they will likely switch to the 2170 for the S and X as soon as there is enough production to meet all Model 3 demand with enough extra to fill at least one pack size for the S/X line.
@islandbayy saw a 30 W/mi improvement (shouldn't that have been Wh/Mi?) when he installed the old aero rims on his Model S.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twWqiJNDPBk
That was on his old 60 KWH, I don't know what improvement he's getting with his 90D.
They probably are getting some pack energy improvements and I have said they will likely switch to the 2170 for the S and X as soon as there is enough production to meet all Model 3 demand with enough extra to fill at least one pack size for the S/X line.
@islandbayy saw a 30 W/mi improvement (shouldn't that have been Wh/Mi?) when he installed the old aero rims on his Model S.
That was on his old 60 KWH, I don't know what improvement he's getting with his 90D.
Tesla already ditched the aero wheels on the S and owners are pulling off the hubcaps on the Model 3. Range-killing huge staggered wheels are very popular on the Model S, that demand isn't going to disappear nor is demand for the top of the line model cars to have at least equal range to the Model 3... but buyers will start to vanish if the cheaper cars with better battery technology remain superior to the more expensive cars for long enough that buyers realize this. They can't rely on hubcaps to catch up with the new cell technology, and Tesla has never been able to keep redundant production lines going for long. Tesla *always* reduces costs and times for production, usually in a matter of months not years so I expect the new Model S and X second gen cars in that '3 months probably 6 months definitely' span we hear so often. I just don't see the old chassis remaining for an entire year, even in Tesla time estimates.
So, with the cheaper and larger capacity 21700 batteries being made in the gigafactory right now, there's no real future for 18650 in the next Model S, and no real reason to avoid a completely new car. The model S is 5 years old, right at the time the car industry expects a total refresh from any manufacturer. We've already seen a mild refresh so we know they're stretching the current design in keeping with standard industry practice and timelines, and now there's a reason to fit the new battery dimensions in a new chassis. They could re-engineer the current pack to fit fewer 21700 cells, and I hope they do because I'd love one of those packs myself, but they'll most likely just release a new car with a new pack; it's very unlikely the Model 3 uses the same modules as the Model S and X re-arranged for a less efficient composition of 21700 cells inside. The next Model S and X will definitely use the same modules as the Model 3 battery, again because Tesla has always gone with the cheapest production costs possible, so arranging those new modules full of new cells that are already in the Model 3 into a larger pack for the bigger cars is how the redesign will be based. If I'm wrong, great! But I just don't see a retrofittable pack for our current cars being a priority for such a short term and pricey effort. As soon as someone wrecks a Model 3 and that pack gets torn down, we'll know for sure, but my bet is squarely on a completely new module rather than the same dimensions as those used in the current S and X packs, and those modules are what determines whether we can retrofit into our cars.
So, with the cheaper and larger capacity 21700 batteries being made in the gigafactory right now, there's no real future for 18650 in the next Model S, and no real reason to avoid a completely new car. The model S is 5 years old, right at the time the car industry expects a total refresh from any manufacturer. We've already seen a mild refresh so we know they're stretching the current design in keeping with standard industry practice and timelines, and now there's a reason to fit the new battery dimensions in a new chassis. They could re-engineer the current pack to fit fewer 21700 cells, and I hope they do because I'd love one of those packs myself, but they'll most likely just release a new car with a new pack; it's very unlikely the Model 3 uses the same modules as the Model S and X re-arranged for a less efficient composition of 21700 cells inside. The next Model S and X will definitely use the same modules as the Model 3 battery, again because Tesla has always gone with the cheapest production costs possible, so arranging those new modules full of new cells that are already in the Model 3 into a larger pack for the bigger cars is how the redesign will be based. If I'm wrong, great! But I just don't see a retrofittable pack for our current cars being a priority for such a short term and pricey effort. As soon as someone wrecks a Model 3 and that pack gets torn down, we'll know for sure, but my bet is squarely on a completely new module rather than the same dimensions as those used in the current S and X packs, and those modules are what determines whether we can retrofit into our cars.
I've often heard about 30% more, without any proof that they actually have. Now it's already 40%? Wow if Tesla would just improve at halve the rate they do in peoples heads, it would be really impressive! Or did you just mean 40% more energy per cell, keeping in mind that the cell has 46% more volume, which would mean less range with the new cells?
Huge jumps in cell capacity have been just around the corner for 5 years now. I'll believe it when I see it.
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