I ran the following prompts through ChatGPT to try and come up with a target:
- how many tesla model 3 performance trims did Tesla sell last year? In 2023: 63,000 Total Model 3s sold, no breakdown of performance versus other trims.
- what percentage of car buyers in the US buy a performance car? Around 3%
If you apply those numbers, we're only looking at a few thousand M3P sold in 2024. And this is for a car that has no detailed reviews out, and it's being released halfway through the year, so it could be less than 1,000 cars.
I think there's far fewer orders out there than people suspect. Even if the tax credit sweetens the deal, it won't attract more than 30% more buyers, so I think the upper end is probably 2,000 orders for the year.