Model 3 Performance/Ludicrous Waiting Room

[M3PDenver]

Looking at the M3P tracker (133 entries currently), it looks like there is <8% that were originally an SR/LR order but switched to performance. Most of the early orders back in Jan that switched are white interior which we all know is the reason for the delays.

The white ones are the ones getting VINs first though. Wouldn't that mean they are going to production first?

 

[JezzaE]

Looking at the M3P tracker (133 entries currently), it looks like there is <8% that were originally an SR/LR order but switched to performance. Most of the early orders back in Jan that switched are white interior which we all know is the reason for the delays.

White interior for Rwd/LR were delayed not the Performance seats that I’m aware of…unless it’s the rear seats?

 

[makeyourself]

The white ones are the ones getting VINs first though. Wouldn't that mean they are going to production first?

I edited my comment since I can see why it was confusing. I meant that the delays for SR/LR deliveries were primarily related to the white interior. I figure its a blessing in a disguise for some since their SR/LR orders were delayed long enough for them to switchover to the M3P.

 

[hkarthik]

Anyone have any idea what the scale of order numbers might be for the M3P so far? I would still think it's a niche market but really have no idea. 1000? 10,000?

I ran the following prompts through ChatGPT to try and come up with a target:

1. how many tesla model 3 performance trims did Tesla sell last year? In 2023: 63,000 Total Model 3s sold, no breakdown of performance versus other trims.
2. what percentage of car buyers in the US buy a performance car? Around 3%

If you apply those numbers, we're only looking at a few thousand M3P sold in 2024. And this is for a car that has no detailed reviews out, and it's being released halfway through the year, so it could be less than 1,000 cars.

I think there's far fewer orders out there than people suspect. Even if the tax credit sweetens the deal, it won't attract more than 30% more buyers, so I think the upper end is probably 2,000 orders for the year.

 

[hkarthik]

I haven’t seen anyone get new vins in a while either. A guy on Reddit, who had a pick up schedule for yesterday said that they had to reschedule for Saturday for a mandatory update for all the performance cars.

Yeah I think this means no one will have a delivery date earlier than May 18. I guess we'll wait and see who puts in the first verified delivery date into the tracker.

No new VINs in 2 days. Definitely seems like we're in a holding period now.

 

[HeyMrLee]

I genuinely think that whatever that update is has something to do with the fact that they have not released full reviews yet. My suspicion is that there is something that they want to add or change or enhance on the performance version before they allow the YouTubers to fully review them.

 

[dsc888]

I ran the following prompts through ChatGPT to try and come up with a target:

1. how many tesla model 3 performance trims did Tesla sell last year? In 2023: 63,000 Total Model 3s sold, no breakdown of performance versus other trims.
2. what percentage of car buyers in the US buy a performance car? Around 3%

If you apply those numbers, we're only looking at a few thousand M3P sold in 2024. And this is for a car that has no detailed reviews out, and it's being released halfway through the year, so it could be less than 1,000 cars.

I think there's far fewer orders out there than people suspect. Even if the tax credit sweetens the deal, it won't attract more than 30% more buyers, so I think the upper end is probably 2,000 orders for the year.

I think you are onto something here. I just think back to my daily drive and how many LR versus M3Ps I see and it is easily a 15:1 ratio. I'd hazard it to be a 30:1 ratio. I can spot MP3 by their Uberturbine wheels, red underline, red calipers easily and lower ride height quite easily like most folks here. It's definitely not a high volume trim.

 

[JezzaE]

I genuinely think that whatever that update is has something to do with the fact that they have not released full reviews yet. My suspicion is that there is something that they want to add or change or enhance on the performance version before they allow the YouTubers to fully review them.

The so called “update” was out of a SA’s mouth…can’t bank on that info!

 

[kardis1221]

I’m sure a lot of the people are waiting for the LR to have that federal tax credit applied later this year or next because that will make a huge price difference between M3P and LR.

 

[brianman]

I haven’t seen anyone get new vins in a while either. A guy on Reddit, who had a pick up schedule for yesterday said that they had to reschedule for Saturday for a mandatory update for all the performance cars.

 

[RizA]

I ran the following prompts through ChatGPT to try and come up with a target:

1. how many tesla model 3 performance trims did Tesla sell last year? In 2023: 63,000 Total Model 3s sold, no breakdown of performance versus other trims.
2. what percentage of car buyers in the US buy a performance car? Around 3%

If you apply those numbers, we're only looking at a few thousand M3P sold in 2024. And this is for a car that has no detailed reviews out, and it's being released halfway through the year, so it could be less than 1,000 cars.

I think there's far fewer orders out there than people suspect. Even if the tax credit sweetens the deal, it won't attract more than 30% more buyers, so I think the upper end is probably 2,000 orders for the year.

I was curious about this too. I like the criteria you used, but Tesla would have sold more than 63K Model 3 in 2023?. I belive their total deliveries were around 1.7M?

 

[whoosierdaddy]

Mandatory update?! What could it be…

 

[lee82]

I’m sure a lot of the people are waiting for the LR to have that federal tax credit applied later this year or next because that will make a huge price difference between M3P and LR.

Is there official word that this is in the works, or just hoping that it will?

 

[TehEno]

Mandatory update?! What could it be…

To make it actually Ludicrous

 

[GuyFromAz]

Mandatory update?! What could it be…

A rivet in the accelerator pedal, like the Cybertruck? Haha

 

[P-Lo801]

A rivet in the accelerator pedal, like the Cybertruck? Haha

Please don't jinx it! LOL

 

[Jangy]

I don't necessarily think that. I could be that white interior is popular. Seem most going to Service Centers for display are black interior's

No black interior performances have been sighted. The demo cars are white interior too.

 

[DW3434]

I was curious about this too. I like the criteria you used, but Tesla would have sold more than 63K Model 3 in 2023?. I believe their total deliveries were around 1.7M?

I was reading a industry report for new passenger vehicles sold in US last year ( not including pick up trucks.) 80% SUV, 20% Sedan. Best selling Tesla is Model Y. So we could have a similar ratio here between Y and 3 as well

 

[SnipeAT]

Do you think once the car comes out and we see how much different it really is from the LR it could create more interest in people who aren’t performance enthusiasts?

i’m not a performance enthusiast, but I bought it because it was cheaper than the long range with the tax credit.

 

[GuyFromAz]

No black interior performances have been sighted. The demo cars are white interior too.

I don't get why they're even shipping "showroom only" vehicles to the service centers as a Demo-you-can't-drive. Fill the backlog first, then worry about convincing people to make new sales by being able to sit in and touch it.
I can't imagine the utter abuse a demo M3P would go through. The tires would be chewed-up by the time they go to sell the vehicle at EOQ as a demo unit. Definitely not one I'd wanna buy! (Which might be why they are sit-but-don't-drive units.